美联储加息可能引发股市崩盘

The US Federal Reserve risks causing a 1937-style stock market slump when it finally moves to raise interest rates, one of the world’s most powerful hedge fund managers has warned.

全球影响力最大的对冲基金经理之一警告称，当美联储(Fed)最终采取加息举动时，可能引发类似于1937年的股市大跌。

Ray Dalio, founder of the $165bn hedge fund group Bridgewater Associates, said in a note to clients and followers that he is avoiding large bets on the financial markets for fear that the Fed’s expected change of policy could have dramatic unintended consequences.

资产规模达到1650亿美元的对冲基金集团Bridgewater的创始人雷•戴利奥(Ray Dalio)在一份写给客户与追随者的备忘录中表示，他正避免对金融市场大笔押注，原因是担心意料之中的美联储政策转变可能带来戏剧性的意外后果。

The note emerged as Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, warned that US rate increases could trigger instability in emerging markets, leading to a re-run of the Fed-induced “taper tantrum” of 2013. The comments frame a high-stakes Fed meeting at which the central bank’s policy makers are expected to open the door to the first US rate hikes in nearly a decade.

与此同时，国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告称，美国加息可能引发新兴市场的不稳定，致使2013年美联储诱发的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)再度上演。这些言论框定了事关重大的一次美联储会议，预计这家央行的政策制定者将在会上为美国近10年来的首次加息铺平道路。

The Fed is today expected to remove pledges to be “patient” before lifting rates when it concludes two days of deliberations. Market expectations are for it to raise rates either in June or September, but the soaring value of the dollar and a spate of soft economic indicators have muddied the waters going into the meeting.

在结束为期两天的商议后，预计美联储将在今日摒弃在加息之前保持“耐心”的承诺。市场对美联储加息的预期时间为6月或9月，但是美元飙升及一连串疲软的经济指标搅浑了本次会议的政策制定背景。

In Mr Dalio’s note, whose stark tone has led it to be widely circulated around the industry, he and his co-authors urge the Fed to proceed with caution and to set out a public plan B, in case monetary tightening goes wrong.

戴利奥直白的语气使备忘录在行业内广为流传。在备忘录中，戴利奥及其联名作者敦促美联储谨慎行事，并制定公开的B计划，以防货币政策收紧引发问题。

“We don’t know — nor does the Fed know — exactly how much tightening will knock over the apple cart,” Mr Dalio and Mark Dinner, his colleague, wrote.

“我们并不确切地了解——美联储也不了解——多大力度的收紧会打翻‘苹果车’，”戴利奥及其同事马克•迪内(Mark Dinner)写道。

“What we do hope the Fed knows, which we don’t know, is how exactly it will fix things if it knocks it over. We hope that they know that before they make a move that could knock over the apple cart. We are cautious about our exposures. For the reasons explained, we do not want to have any concentrated bets, especially at this time.”

“我们希望美联储知道（我们肯定不知道），如果打翻了苹果车它究竟将如何纠正问题。我们希望他们在做出可能打翻苹果车的举动之前知道这一点。我们对自己的风险敞口很谨慎。出于以上解释的原因，我们不想进行任何集中押注，特别是在当前情况下。”

The note likens financial conditions today to those in 1937, eight years after the 1929 stock market crisis and at the end of four years of money printing that had led to surge in equity valuations. Premature tightening by the Fed led to a one-third slump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1937 and the sell-off continued into the following year.

备忘录把眼下的金融状况与1937年的情况相提并论，当时是1929年股市危机后的第8年，也是导致股票估值激增的4年印钞政策结束之时。美联储过早收紧导致道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)在1937年下跌1/3，股市抛售持续至次年。

Today, many analysts fear the knock-on effect of any Fed tightening, particularly on emerging markets, especially when combined with a strong dollar. Although Bridgewater’s investment style is heavily computer driven, Mr Dalio’s investment commentary has long been valued by investors. His Pure Alpha fund, with over $80bn in assets, is among the top performing funds of all time, according to a 2014 survey from LCH Investments.

如今，很多分析师担心美联储的任何政策收紧将会带来连锁效应，尤其是对新兴市场，特别是加上美元走强的影响。尽管Bridgewater的投资风格严重依赖于计算机，但戴利奥的投资评论长期受到投资者重视。LCH Investments 2014年的一项调查显示，戴利奥的Pure Alpha基金（资产规模超过800亿美元）跻身于历来表现最好的基金之列。