美联储高官淡化9月加息预期

A top Federal Reserve official has damped expectations that the central bank would raise US interest rates next month, highlighting how the turmoil that has spread from China to global markets is rattling policymakers.

美联储(Federal Reserve)一名高级官员淡化了这家央行将在下月提高美国利率的预期，突显从中国蔓延至全球市场的动荡正使政策制定者们不安。

William Dudley, head of the New York branch of the Fed, told a conference that it was “important not to overreact to short-term market developments” but conceded that the argument for tightening monetary policy as early as September “seem[s] less compelling to me [now] than it was a few weeks ago”.

纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉达德利(William Dudley)在一个会议上表示，“不对短期市场动态作出过度反应是重要的”，但承认，最早在9月就收紧货币政策的主张“在我看来似乎不如几周前那么有说服力”。

“International developments have increased the downside risk to US economic growth somewhat,” he said, citing China’s economic slowdown, falling commodity prices, strains on emerging markets and the resulting “financial market volatility”.

“国际上的事态增加了美国经济增长的下行风险，”他说。他提到中国经济增长放缓，大宗商品价格不断下跌，新兴市场出现紧张，以及这一切导致的“金融市场波动”。

He was speaking after days of steep slides in Chinese shares, which have lost half their value since mid-June amid mounting evidence of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The declines have spread alarm across global equities, commodities and foreign exchange markets.

达德利发表讲话之前，中国股市连续数日大幅下跌。自6月中旬以来，随着越来越多的证据证明全球第二大经济体增长放缓，中国股票已失去一半价值。此轮跌势已在全球股票、大宗商品和外汇市场拉响警报。

The turmoil seen on Monday had eased yesterday, but markets remained volatile. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 saw big swings and closed down 1.9 per cent. China’s Shanghai Composite index also dropped 1.3 per cent, a day after the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates and pumped liquidity into the banking sector by reducing the reserve requirement ratio for big banks.

周一出现的动荡昨日已有所缓解，但市场仍动荡不定。欧洲的富时Eurofirst 300(FTSE Eurofirst 300)指数昨日出现较大波动，收盘下跌1.9%。中国的上证综指(Shanghai Composite index)昨日也下降1.3%，就在前一日，中国央行(PBoC)宣布降息，并通过降低针对大银行的存款准备金率，向银行业注入流动性。

Earlier this summer most economists were predicting that the Fed would raise rates in September for the first time in almost a decade.

今夏早些时候，多数经济学家预计，美联储将在9月加息，这将是近10年来首次提高利率。

But market expectations of a hike next month are fading fast, with Barclays economists shifting their forecasts to March next year.

不过，对于下月加息的市场预期正在迅速消失，其中巴克莱(Barclays)经济学家把他们预测的加息时机延后至明年3月。

Mr Dudley said he still hoped the Fed could raise interest rates by the end of the year, noting a move would be a sign of confidence in the US economy. He added that new data could yet make a September hike “more compelling”.

纽约联储的达德利表示，他仍然希望美联储能够在年底前加息，并指出此举将是对美国经济有信心的标志。他补充说，新的数据仍可能使9月就加息的主张“更有说服力”。

“I really do hope we can raise interest rates this let’s see how the data unfold before we make statements about when that might occur.”

“我真的希望我们能在今年加息……但是，让我们先看看数据如何发展，然后再发表何时可能加息的声明。”

Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said on Monday he still expected interest rates to rise this year but Mr Dudley is the first Fed policymaker to speak in such detail since the global stock market sell-off.

亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长丹尼斯洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)周一曾表示，他仍预期利率将在今年内上升，但达德利是自全球股市出现抛售以来首位详尽表态的美联储政策制定者。

Jeffrey Gundlach, the head of DoubleLine, a big bond fund manager, said that there was “no way” the Fed will lift interest rates this year. “There are some people that still think the Fed could hike in September. I think that’s a ridiculous assumption, given what is going on in financial markets,” he told the Financial Times. “I think we should be very worried about China. It’s a very big deal.”

大型债券基金管理公司DoubleLine掌门人杰弗里蠠拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)表示，美联储今年加息是“不可能的事情”。“有一些人仍然认为美联储可能会在9月加息。我认为那是个荒谬的想法，考虑到金融市场正在发生的情况。”他对英国《金融时报》表示，“我认为我们应该很担心中国。这个问题非常重大。”