短线观点 美联储9月加息概率多大

Last week, it looked like markets had bullied the US Federal Reserve into delaying interest rate increases, but over the weekend one of the central bank’s most senior and respected policymakers fought back.

上周，市场似乎让美联储(Fed)陷入不得不推迟加息的境地，但在上周末，美联储资历最深、最受人尊重的政策制定者之一做出了反击。

Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chairman and the only board member aside from Janet Yellen who has actually run a central bank before (the Bank of Israel) did not overtly insist that a September rate rise was still on the table, but his message was clear.

美联储副主席斯坦利费希尔(Stanley Fischer)并未公开坚称9月加息仍有的谈，但他传递出的信息是明确的。费希尔是美联储理事会中除珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)以外唯一真正执掌过一家央行（以色列央行(Bank of Israel)）的成员。

Weak wage growth went unmentioned, and China warranted only a cursory sentence in Mr Fischer’s speech at Jackson Hole, the annual central banker jamboree. In contrast, the garlanded economist said that he expected inflation to head higher as temporary headwinds dissipated, and stressed that monetary policy should be tightened well before inflation returns to the 2 per cent target.

费希尔在杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)全球央行年会上没有提及疲弱的薪资增长，对中国也只是一语带过。相比之下，这位享有盛誉的经济学家表示，他预计随着暂时性逆风消散，通胀将会走高，并强调称，应该在通胀远未重返2%的目标水平前收紧货币政策。

His words helped push the probability of a rate increase next month, as measured by interest rate futures, up from a low of just 22 per cent last week to 36 per cent yesterday. Admittedly, Mr Fischer only kept the possibility alive, and other policymakers take a less sanguine view of the recent bout of turmoil.

他的言论帮助提升了下月加息的可能性——以利率期货市场的行情衡量，美联储下月加息的概率上周仅为22%，昨日已升至36%。诚然，费希尔只是确保了加息的可能性依然存在，其他政策制定者对最近这波市场动荡的看法则不那么乐观。

Last week, New York Fed head William Dudley said he felt that the turbulence had made the case for near-term rate increases “less compelling”, and a wide variety of economists and bond market veterans agree.

上周，纽约联储(New York Fed)主席威廉达德利(William Dudley)表示，他认为市场动荡让近期加息的理由“不那么有说服力”。形形色色的经济学家和债市资深人士都同意这种看法。