美联储本月加息信号渐强
Mounting evidence that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month has given investors new confidence in the strength of the US economy, sending Wall Street to record highs yesterday in a broad-based rally that buoyed markets around the world.
越来越多证据表明美联储(Federal Reserve)将在本月加息，这给投资者带来对美国经济强劲程度的新信心。昨日美国金融市场普遍大涨，股指纷纷创下新高，且带动了世界各地的市场。The spike in equities was led by banks, which will directly benefit from higher rates by improving margins on their lending. But there were gains across the board, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 — a gauge of small-cap companies — all reaching new intraday highs.
银行类股票领跑股市涨势，因为较高的利率将提升放贷利润率，让银行直接受益。但所有板块的股票都出现上涨，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)、道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)、纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)以及罗素2000指数（Russell 2000，小盘股公司指数）均录得新的盘中高点。
“The Fed is willing to be on top of things and has greater confidence in the economy,” said Jerry Lucas, a senior strategist at UBS Wealth Management.
“美联储希望抓住主动权，而且对经济有更大信心，”瑞银财富管理(UBS Wealth Management)高级策略师杰瑞?卢卡斯(Jerry Lucas)表示。
Stocks charged higher despite disappointment among analysts that Donald Trump had failed in his first address to Congress on Tuesday night to provide more details on his plans to stimulate the US economy and cut regulation.
此轮股市大涨是在分析师们对唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)首次对国会发表讲话感到失望的背景下出现的，美国总统在周二晚的讲话中没有更具体地说明他计划如何刺激美国经济和减少监管。But the market’s willingness to focus on the more constructive tone of the speech underlined the fact that there is more to the global rally in equities than mere optimism about the president’s ambitions to cut corporate taxes and create jobs by investing in American infrastructure projects.
但是市场愿意专注于这次讲话比较建设性的基调，这说明支撑全球股市上涨的不仅仅是对美国总统的雄心的乐观情绪；特朗普有意削减公司税，并通过投资于美国基础设施项目来创造就业机会。Investors said they were focused on recent remarks by Fed policymakers indicating they were prepared to raise rates at their meeting on March 14-15 regardless of Mr Trump’s budget plans. Previously, the Fed’s Open Market Committee said that details of White House intentions would play a central role in its rate decision.
投资者们表示，他们关注美联储政策制定者最近的言论，按照这些言论，无论特朗普的预算计划如何，他们都准备在3月14-15日的会议上调高利率。之前美联储的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)曾表示，白宫意图的细节将在其利率决策中扮演核心角色。Markets were particularly influenced by William Dudley, New York Fed president and an ally of chair Janet Yellen, who said that the case for raising rates had become “a lot more compelling”.
市场尤其受纽约联储(New York Fed)行长、美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)的盟友威廉?达德利(William Dudley)的影响，他说，加息理由已变得“更有说服力”。“The [Fed] was adamant that March was live and the market wasn’t listening to them,” said Ashish Shah, head of fixed income at AllianceBernstein. “Now the market is listening.”
“美联储曾坚定表示3月会议有可能加息，但市场不肯听，”安联伯恩斯坦(AllianceBernstein)固定收益产品部门主管阿希什?沙阿(Ashish Shah)表示。“现在市场在听了。”Investor appetite was also piqued by better-than-expected European and US manufacturing surveys. Global data are eclipsing forecasts by the most since 2010, according to Citigroup.
投资者的胃口也受到欧洲和美国制造业调查结果好于预期的刺激。据花旗集团(Citigroup)介绍，全球数据以2010年以来最大幅度超出预测。Traders now put the odds of a quarter-point rate rise in two weeks at more than 80 per cent, up from 34 per cent last week.
交易员们现在认为两周后加息四分之一点的几率在80%以上，远高于上周的34%。JJ Kinahan of TD Ameritrade said: “A rate hike now is viewed as a vote of confidence in the economy.” In the past, hikes were seen as likely to “derail” the market, he added.
TD Ameritrade的JJ?基纳汉(JJ Kinahan)表示：“现在加息将被视为对美国经济投下信心票。”他补充说，前一阶段加息曾被认为可能“搞砸”市场。Investors were disappointed by Mr Trump’s lack of substance but the non-confrontational nature of the address boosted confidence that he can push through his pro-business agenda.
投资者对特朗普的讲话缺乏实质内容感到失望，但此次讲话的非对抗性质提振了各方对美国总统能够推进其亲商议程的信心。
