美联储对加息时机仍存分歧

Many Federal Reserve policy makers want to see more evidence that the US economy is strengthening before pulling the trigger on rate rises, according to minutes of a meeting marked by concerns over the Greek stand-off and the potential for a Chinese slowdown.

美联储(Fed)议息会议的会议记录显示，多名美联储政策制定者希望在启动加息前看到更多美国经济走强的证据。这次议息会议以对希腊对峙局面和中国放缓可能性的担忧为特征。

Minutes from the meeting from June 16-17 struck a broadly positive tone about developments in the US economy, highlighting stronger consumer spending, corporate hiring, housing market activity and signs of wage growth. The stabilisation of oil prices and the dollar would reduce downward pressure on inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee noted.

这次议息会议于6月16日到17日召开。在该会议记录中，人们对美国经济发展的语气普遍比较积极，其中重点提到了美国消费支出增大、企业用工人数增加和楼市交易活动增强，还有多种迹象表明薪资水平也出现了增长。联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)指出，油价和美元的趋稳，会减轻通胀率的下行压力。

Still, the minutes revealed a committee that remained divided over when the conditions would be right to raise rates from their current near-zero levels, noting that while some thought the conditions for a rate rise had nearly been met, a number of members were cautioning against a “premature decision”.

不过，据会议记录披露，对于何时把利率从目前接近零的水平提升上来，委员会依然存在分歧。该会议记录指出，虽然部分人认为加息条件已接近成熟，还有多名与会人员则提醒人们不要“过早做出决定”。

Participants gave “a number of reasons to be cautious in assessing the outlook”, the minutes said, with some members citing the possibility that consumer spending stays sluggish, or that there could be persistent drags on the economy from the high dollar and weak oil prices.

会议记录表明，与会者提出了“多个谨慎评估前景的理由”。一些委员会成员提到了消费者支出保持低迷的可能性。还有人提到，美元高企和油价疲软可能会持续拖累美国经济。

Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, stressed last month that rate rises would be “gradual” as she insisted the first rise could come this year. Projections unveiled by the committee showed a shallower path of tightening in the coming years, as well as an FOMC that was divided over whether there should be one, two or, indeed, no rate moves this year.

美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)上月强调，加息将是“渐进式”的，并坚称首次加息将在今年启动。委员会披露的预测表明，未来几年紧缩将以较小的幅度展开。而且，在今年到底应该开展一次、两次还是根本不开展利率调整的问题上，委员会还存在分歧。

The Fed in June left its target range for the Fed funds rate at zero to 0.25 per cent, the historic low it has occupied since 2008.

6月，美联储偏离了其对联邦基金利率设立的目标区间——零利率至0.25%。自2008年以来美联储一直将目标区间保持在这一历史最低水平。

Internationally, a great deal has changed since the FOMC’s June meeting.

在联邦公开市场委员会6月会议后，国际事务发生了很大的变化。

The chaos in Greece worsened sharply as the country imposed capital controls and bank closures and held a referendum in which official creditors’ bailout terms were rejected. In China, a stock market rout has prompted Beijing to take drastic actions aimed at steadying the market, including bans on share sales by big stakeholders and the use of central bank money to bolster the market.

希腊的混乱局势急剧恶化，该国实施了资本管控，关闭了银行，并举行了公投。在这次公投中，希腊拒绝了官方债权人的纾困条款。在中国，一轮股市崩盘已促使北京方面采取强力措施稳定股市。这些举措包括禁止大股东卖出股票，以及动用央行资金提振股市。

Greece was a concern for many of the Fed policy makers in the meeting, the minutes showed. There was a risk of disruptions to euro area financial markets if the sides failed to resolve their differences, with “possible spillover effects on the United States”.

会议记录显示，许多美联储政策制定者担忧希腊问题。一旦各方未能解决分歧，欧元区金融市场存在瓦解的风险，“可能会对美国产生溢出效应”。

Not all FOMC members appear overly concerned, however. John Williams, the president of the San Francisco Fed, said in a speech on Wednesday that events in Greece were unlikely to overturn the “strong fundamentals” of the US economy, adding that a recent trip to China had made him less worried about that economy.

不过，并非所有委员会成员都对此极为忧虑。旧金山联邦储备银行(San Francisco Fed)行长约翰•威廉姆斯(John Williams)周三发表讲话说，希腊发生的事件不太可能扭转美国经济“强劲的基本面”。他还补充说，最近对中国的访问，令他减轻了对中国经济的忧虑。

Some FOMC members said the conditions for raising rates had already been met or would be met “shortly”. Labour market conditions had improved, with solid hiring levels, low unemployment insurance claims, and a shift of workers into more stable, higher skilled jobs. Several FOMC members said there were signs of improvement in the inflation outlook, especially after a stabilisation in the dollar and energy prices, which have been drags.

一些委员会成员表示，加息的条件已经成熟，或者“很快”就会成熟。劳动力市场状况已经好转，用工人数稳步增长，领取失业救济的人数处于较低水平，就业者也已转向更稳定、更高技能的工作岗位。几名委员会成员表示，通胀前景也有改善迹象，尤其是一直是拖累因素的美元和能源价格趋于稳定。

For most FOMC members, however, it was still too soon to advocate a rate move, even if conditions continued to improve steadily.

然而，对于多数委员会成员来说，即使情况继续稳步改善，支持利率调整仍然为时过早。