美联储9月份暂不加息的决定来得很悬

September’s decision by the US Federal Reserve to hold interest rates unchanged was a “close call” and some policymakers thought a move could be merited relatively soon, minutes to the meeting revealed yesterday.

美联储(Fed)在9月的会议上保持利率不变的决定来得“很悬”，部分政策制定者当时认为，应当相对较早地采取加息行动。该会议的会议记录于昨日公布。

Officials were largely agreed that the case for a rise in short-term rates had strengthened in the weeks leading up to the September 20-21 meeting, with a number of policymakers seeking to signal that move could happen within months if the economy stayed on track.

大多数官员当时都认同，在9月20日至21日的议息会议前的几周里，提高短期利率的理由已经加强。多位政策制定者试图暗示，只要经济保持在当前轨道上，加息就有可能在几个月内发生。

“Some participants believed that it would be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon if the labour market continued to improve and economic activity strengthened,” the minutes said. On the other hand, “some others preferred to wait for more convincing evidence that inflation was moving toward the committee’s 2 per cent objective”.

该会议记录表示：“部分与会者认为，如果就业市场继续好转、经济活动得到加强，相对较早提高联邦基金利率的目标范围将是合适的。”另一方面，“部分其他与会者则倾向于等待更多有说服力的证据，证明通胀率正在向委员会制定的2%的目标移动”。

The Fed was heavily divided at its latest meeting, with policymakers diverging over how quickly they needed to respond to improving labour market data. After the decision, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, stressed there was scope for further improvement in the labour market before the central bank needed to lift rates for a second time since its December increase.

在最近这次议息会议上，美联储分歧严重，政策制定者们对需要多快地回应正在改善的就业市场数据看法不一。在作出保持利率不变的决定之后，美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)强调，在美联储需要实施第二次加息之前，就业市场仍存在进一步改善的余地。美联储上次加息是在去年的12月份。

Job numbers released after that meeting have supported that argument, as the unemployment rate inched up amid signs Americans are being drawn off the sidelines and into the labour force. However, the minutes point to a vocal contingent of Fed officials who are eager to move soon. The Fed has two more meetings this year, one on November 1-2 and the final one on December 13-14.

在那次会议之后公布的就业数据支持了耶伦这一观点：有多种迹象表明更多美国人加入就业大军，失业率随之小幅上升。不过，会议记录显示，有多名美联储官员都明确表达了早日加息的迫切希望。今年美联储还将召开两次议息会议，一次是在11月1日到2日，最后一次则是在12月13日到14日。

Three Federal Open Market Committee members formally dissented at the no-change decision, saying they wanted an immediate increase. The minutes suggested they were not alone, with some officials arguing that a delay would “unduly increase the risk of the unemployment rate falling markedly below its longer-run normal level”. If that happened, the Fed could be forced to lift rates more sharply, hitting the economy harder.

有三位联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)成员对保持利率不变的决定正式表示了异议，他们表示希望马上加息。会议记录显示持有异议的不止他们三人，部分官员声称，拖延加息或“不当地加大失业率降至显著低于较长期正常水平的风险”。如果发生这种情况，美联储可能不得不更急剧地加息，从而更沉重地打击经济。

The hawks at the meeting also said they were worried the Fed was appearing to diverge from its past behaviour by holding fire for so long, meaning that it could risk “eroding its credibility” given recent economic data had been in line with its expectations.

那次会议上的鹰派还表示，他们担心美联储按兵不动的时间如此之长，显得它偏离了过去的行为方式，考虑到近期经济数据符合美联储预期，这意味着美联储可能有“损失可信度”的风险。

A number of those who argued in favour of waiting saw the decision as a “close call”. It was noted that arguments could be made for an increase at September’s meeting and for waiting for more evidence on the strength of the labour market and inflation.

多名支持美联储暂不加息的与会者认为，这一决定来得“很悬”。可以看到，两种决定——即在9月的议息会议上加息，或是暂不加息、等待更多证据证明就业市场和通胀率确实表现强劲——都有站得住脚的理由。

Market expectations for the next move centre on the Fed’s December meeting, with futures trading suggesting that investors are putting the chances of a move at about 67 per cent, according to Bloomberg calculations. The chances of a November rise were at just over one in five before the minutes’ release, with many investors judging it to be unlikely that the central bank would want to change policy just a few days before the presidential election.

市场对下次加息的预期集中于美联储12月份的议息会议，根据彭博(Bloomberg)的计算，期货交易暗示投资者估计的加息可能性为大约67%。而在这次的会议记录公布前，11月份加息的可能性为五分之一多一点，原因是许多投资者判断，美联储不太可能想在美国总统大选仅几天前改变政策。

Bill Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, said yesterday before the release of the minutes that the Fed could be “gentle” in removing stimulus, given there was “plenty of room to run” in the economic expansion. His cautious words suggested he may not be angling for a move as soon as the Fed’s next meeting in November.

纽约联储银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)行长比尔•达德利(Bill Dudley)昨天在会议记录公布前表示，考虑到经济增长还有“足够的空间”，美联储可能会以“轻柔”手法撤掉刺激政策。他谨慎的措辞意味着，他或许未谋求在11月份的美联储下次议息会议上就采取加息行动。

The minutes revealed diverging views as to how soon to pull the trigger, underscoring the sense of division on how to respond to complex signals about the health of the US labour market.

会议记录披露了在何时加息上的观点不一，凸显出围绕如何回应关于美国就业市场状况的复杂信号存在着分歧。