分析报告 中国牛市背后的政策意图

As Chinese stocks have soaRed to their highest since the financial crisis, many analysts point the finger to Beijing, calling the year-long bull run a state-sanctioned rally.

随着中国股市飙升至金融危机以来的最高点位，很多分析人士将矛头直指北京，称历时一年的本轮牛市受到了政府鼓励。

But what do Chinese policy makers hope to gain from luring millions of savers into the stock market, which some warn is already in bubble territory?

那么，吸引数百万储户进入被认为已经出现泡沫的股市，中国的政策制定者希望达到什么目的？

Here are some possible economic benefits of the China rally.

中国股市大涨可能给经济带来以下几点益处：

The wealth effect

财富效应

“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence.” Not the words of any China analyst, but rather those of Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, discussing quantitative easing in 2010.

“股价上涨使消费者财富增加，有助于增强信心。”这句话并非出自哪一个对中国感兴趣的分析师之口，而是2010年时任美联储(Fed)主席的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在谈论量化宽松时所说的。

The idea holds weight for China, too. Rising stock prices could make consumers feel more flush, encouraging them to go out and spend. If effective, this would accelerate Beijing’s long-stated goal of creating a more consumption-driven economy. Recent research from Boston Consulting Group showed the stock market rally had helped create 1m new millionaires in China last year, although evidence of a knock-on retail boom remains thin.

这句话同样适用于中国。股价上涨，消费者会感觉自己钱多了，自然就会更多地出门消费。如果这种说法有效的话，将有利于北京加快实现长期以来强调的目标——打造一个更多由消费驱动的经济。波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)最近一项调查显示，在去年，股市上涨使中国新增加了100万名百万富翁，但牛市带动零售繁荣的证据仍然不够充分。

Rising stocks also have a secondary benefit of distracting people from the deteriorating growth picture, some analysts say. Perhaps the government is simply after positive news stories amid headlines dominated by the economic slowdown.

一些分析人士称，股市上涨还有一个次要好处——让人们别过多注意不断恶化的经济增长前景。也许政府只是在新闻头条都被经济放缓消息占据的情况下寻找一些正面消息。

A covert debt-for-equity swap

秘而不宣的债转股

China’s post-financial crisis credit boom has left the banking system facing the prospect of a wave of damaging defaults. Many analysts expect this to result in a full-blown recapitalisation of the big state-owned lenders by the central government.

中国在全球金融危机以后出现的信贷繁荣，造成银行系统如今面临着可能出现一波破坏性违约的前景。很多分析人士预计，这将促使中央政府对大型国有银行进行一场全面资本重组。

But a buoyant equity market might enable some of that to happen on the sly. Higher share prices and abundant liquidity make it easier and more attractive for companies to raise cash from the equity market — which they have been doing in large amounts. So far this year, Chinese companies have raised $115bn via initial public offerings and share placements, according to Dealogic. Some of that cash is being used to pay down debt. So China’s savers, without knowing it, may be helping to repair bank balance sheets.

但是，一个繁荣的股市或许可以使部分资本重整悄然地进行。上涨的股价和充裕的流动性使企业从股市融资更容易实现、也更具吸引力——它们的确在大量从股市融资。Dealogic数据显示，今年迄今，中国企业通过首次公开发行(IPO)和配股已经筹集了1150亿美元。其中的一部分资金被用于偿还债务。于是，毫不知情的中国储户可能正在帮忙修复银行的资产负债表。

Redirect cash to where it is needed

引导现金流向需要的地方

Lower interest rates are meant to make it easier for all companies to borrow. But in China, banks tend to extend new credit only to other big state-owned companies when monetary policy gets looser. This encourages the status quo, not the market-driven system China says it wants.

利率下调按说应该使所有企业更容易借贷。但在中国，在货币政策趋向宽松的时候，银行往往只向其他大型国有企业发放新的信贷。这会鼓励现状继续保持下去，而不是形成中国自称希望实现的由市场力量决定的体系。

The current equity rally has been most obvious in Shenzhen-listed small-caps — typically young tech or healthcare companies — while hulking state-owned enterprises have seen only tepid gains. Giving those from “new economy” sectors freer access to cash fits Beijing’s broader goal of rebalancing away from heavy industry. While the danger is a Nasdaq-like bubble, the hope is that a few more Amazons and Alibabas emerge from any future crash.

在当前股市上涨中，涨势最猛的是在深圳上市的小型股（通常是创立不久的科技或医疗保健公司），而庞大的国有企业只出现了温和上涨。让“新经济”领域的企业更容易融资，符合北京方面再平衡的整体目标——减少重工业。尽管存在出现纳斯达克(Nasdaq)式泡沫的风险，但假如未来爆发股灾，有可能涌现出更多的类似亚马逊(Amazon)或阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的企业。

Investment alternatives

提供投资选择

China is no stranger to investment fads. One recent example is property speculation, which resulted in a wave of overbuilding in places where people still don’t seem that keen to live. That has been a significant factor in the current growth slowdown, as developers cut back on construction.

投资热在中国并不少见。比较近的一个例子是炒房，这造成人们居住需求似乎仍不旺盛的地方出现一波过度建设。这是导致目前中国经济增长放缓的一个重要因素，因为开发商减少了建设活动。

Wealth management products, which offered guaranteed returns achieved through lending to some of the riskiest parts of the economy, were another popular bet.

理财产品曾经是另一个投资热点，它通过向经济中一些风险最高的领域出借资金，向投资者提供有保证的收益。