探讨中国双速楼市的政策困境

Century Town, a vast property development 30km from the centre of the eastern Chinese port city of Qingdao, proclaims its "Spanish building quality" complete with archways and red tiled roofs.

"世纪城"是距中国东部港口城市青岛市市中心30公里处的一处大型房地产开发项目。该项目宣称采用"西班牙建筑风格"，建有拱门和红瓦屋顶。

But the empty apartments and falling prices evoke another side of Spain–the housing market bubble that has savaged the Mediterranean economy.

但空荡荡的公寓和不断下跌的房价令人想起西班牙的另一面：肆虐地中海经济的住房市场泡沫。

The question facing China, say analysts, is whether it will suffer a similar fate, depriving the fragile global economy of its most important growth engine and spelling the end of the past decade's commodity boom.

分析师称，中国面临的问题是，它是否会遭受类似的命运，使得脆弱的全球经济丧失最重要的增长引擎，导致过去十年的大宗商品繁荣结束。

Any answer will lie somewhere between the two different faces of China's property market. In the biggest developed cities, houses are beyond the reach of all but the wealthiest citizens. But in the rest of the country, which represents the majority, property is now more affordable than it has been for years, making developers less inclined to build more. For the government, which has intervened to rein in real estate speculation, the two-speed property market presents a dilemma. With the economy slowing sharply, should it worry more about frothy prices in big cities or weak construction activity elsewhere?

任何答案都将藏于中国房地产市场的双重特征之间。在最大的发达城市，只有最有钱的市民才买得起房子。但在其它的绝大多数城市，人们比前几年更能负担得起房价，这使得开发商不太愿意建造更多的房子。对进行干预以遏制房地产投机的政府而言，双速房地产市场导致了一个两难困境。随着经济急剧放缓，中国政府是更应该担心大城市的房价泡沫，还是更应该担心其它城市建筑活动的低迷？

"Policy makers target the very expensive cities, but these cities account for only about a quarter of national sales volume and the crackdown on them has a nationwide impact," said Rosealea Yao of GK Dragonomics, a research firm.

研究机构龙洲经讯(GK Dragonomics)的咬丽蔷(Rosealea Yao)表示："政策制定者将矛头对准房价非常高的城市，但这些城市的住房销量只占全国的25%左右，同时对它们的打压具有全国性的影响。"

Property construction has accounted for about 15 per cent of China's gross domestic product in recent years and its deceleration has taken a toll on the economy. Growth is forecast to slow to an annual rate of about 7.5 per cent in the current quarter, its slowest since early 2009.

近几年房地产建筑活动约占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的15%，它的减速已对经济造成了影响。预计本季度中国的经济增速将放缓至7.5%左右，为2009年以来的最低水平。

Aware of the dangers, the central government has started to loosen its reins ever so slightly. It has encouraged banks to offer discounts on mortgages to first-time home buyers and has prodded developers to increase the construction of cheaper homes. There are signs the policy shifts are yielding results. Qingdao and other cities have reported a pick-up in home sales in recent weeks. But a debate over the affordability of property remains.

中国中央政府意识到了这些风险，开始极其轻微地放松限制。它鼓励银行向首次购房者提供优惠贷款，并激励开发商加大建造价格较低的住房。有迹象表明政策转变正在收到成效。青岛和其它城市报道称最近几周的房屋销量出现增长。但围绕人们能否买得起住房的争论仍在继续。

In China, economists see a house price-to-income ratio of about seven as reasonable, as was historically the case in fast-developing Asian economies. The norm in rich countries is closer to four. Ms Yao of Dragonomics says the good news is that the nationwide market is fast approaching the preferred level as housing prices edge down while wages climb. The price-to-income ratio for houses peaked at 8.1 in 2009, but fell to 7.4 last year and will decline further this year, according to the Shanghai E-House real estate research institute.

经济学家认为中国房价收入比在7左右时是合理的，历史上其它快速发展的亚洲经济体就是如此。目前富裕国家的房价收入比接近4。龙洲经讯的咬丽蔷表示，好消息是，随着房价微跌和工资增长，全国房地产市场正迅速接近理想水平。根据房地产研究机构上海易居中国(E-House)的数据，中国房价收入比曾在2009年达到8.1的峰值，但去年降至7.4，今年将会进一步下降。

The bad news is price-to-income ratios in China's leading cities are still high: 12.4 in Shanghai, 11.6 in Beijing and 15.6 in Shenzhen. "Affordability has been improving since the correction started last year. But it's not been happening quickly enough. That is why the central government has insisted on maintaining its policies," said Wei Yao, economist with Societe Generale.

坏消息是，中国主要城市的房价收入比仍非常高：上海12.4，北京11.6，深圳为15.6。法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)的经济学家姚伟表示："自去年开始调控以来，人们的房价负担能力有所提高，但提高的速度还不够快。这就是中央政府继续坚持调控政策的原因。"

Qingdao, best known as the home of Tsingtao beer, is one of the many places caught in the crossfire of the government's campaign to cool the property market. Its houses are among the most affordable of China's major cities – with a price-to-income ratio of exactly seven last year – and yet sales have plummeted by a third this year.

以青岛啤酒闻名于世的青岛，是因政府采取房地产市场降温措施而陷入困境的众多城市之一。青岛是人们最负担得起房价的主要城市之一，去年房价收入比正好是7，但今年房屋销量仍暴跌三分之一。

It is not hard to see why. In Century Town's showroom, the faux marble columns are overshadowed by a giant sign with large red text explaining the government's home purchase restriction rule. The single most powerful weapon in Beijing's arsenal of real estate controls, it prevents existing homeowners from buying a second property.

原因并不难理解。在世纪城的样板间，一面用大红字体解释政府限购政策的巨大标牌遮住了人造大理石石柱。限购是中国政府房地产调控政策"弹药库"中最有力的武器，它限制了现有房屋业主购买第二套住房。

"This has suppressed a lot of demand. People have waited and waited for prices to collapse," said Chang Le, a construction engineer at Century Town who has seen the pace of building work slow significantly. "We can go back over our old work and do the same thing twice, but there isn't really much useful new work to do."

世纪城建筑工程师常乐已见证了建筑施工速度大幅放缓，他表示："这种政策抑制了大量的需求。人们一直等着价格崩盘。我们可以回过头重复以前的工作，将同样的工作做两遍，但现在真的没有多少有用的新工作可做。"

According to Mr Chang, the development, designed to house 50,000 people over an area as big as 250 football fields, was intended to be completed by 2014. With just a handful of tower blocks complete and most of the land lying untouched, he says 2018 is more likely.

常乐表示，这是一个面积足有250个足球场大、可容纳5万人居住的开发项目，计划在2014年完工。他称，由于目前仅有少数几个塔楼完工，大部分土地仍未动工，该项目更有可能在2018年才完工。

But the buyers are still coming. On a recent visit, Ken Zhang walked carefully across planks over an open pit to a half-finished building to show his girlfriend the apartment he had just bought but will not take possession of until next year. "Everyone has been paying attention to this development, because it is a big one. I saw the prices go down and I thought they were now reasonable. I can't see them falling by much more," he said.

但仍有前来看房的买家。在最近的一次看房中，张肯（音）小心翼翼地走过横在露天坑洞上的木板，来到一幢半完工的楼前，让他的女友看他刚刚购买但明年才会入住的公寓。他表示："由于这个项目非常大，所以所有人都在关注。我看到价格跌下来了，我想目前的价格是合理的。我认为房价不可能下跌太多。"

But trying to engineer the perfect housing market correction–cooling prices in big cities while stimulating construction elsewhere–may prove too much for China's central planners.

但对中国中央计划者们而言，进行完美的住房市场调控——让大城市房价下跌，同时刺激其它城市的建筑活动——可能有些吃力。