如家私有化 要约报价其实不高

Hotels are hot. Global investors have been buying them up like a business traveller with a company card.

酒店炙手可热。全球投资者都在抢购酒店，就像拿着公司的卡消费的商务旅行者一样。

Last week, US-listed Chinese hotelier Homeinns became the latest target. A consortium including management, Shanghai-listed BTG Hotels and US-listed Ctrip proposes to take the company private. The offer price, a one-fifth premium to the undisturbed price, values the company at 20 times next year’s earnings.

上周，在美国上市的中国酒店运营商如家(Homeinns)成为了最新的目标。一个由如家管理层、在沪上市的首旅酒店(BTG Hotels)以及在美上市的携程(Ctrip)组成的财团，向该公司发出了私有化要约。其报价较消息公布前最近20个交易日的平均收盘价高出20%，对如家的估值为其下一年预期盈利的20倍。

This might seem generous. Shares in International hoteliers trade at similar levels and appear to have a better outlook; bullishness towards the global sector comes in large part from the surge in Chinese travelling abroad rather than at home. Last year, they made over 100m trips overseas, up more than tenfold since 2000. There is room for more: relative to their population, Chinese still travel overseas far less than their neighbours, according to CLSA research.

该报价看起来也许算是慷慨。国际酒店运营商的预期市盈率差不多也是这个水平，而且似乎还拥有更好的前景；市场对全球酒店业的看涨情绪在很大程度上源自于中国出境游人数激增、而非国内游。去年，中国出境游人次超过1亿，为2000年的10倍多。而且，中国出境游还有增长空间：里昂证券(CLSA)的研究显示，相对于总人口而言，中国的出境游人次仍然远低于邻国。

Stock performance reflects this contrast. Over the past 24 months, US-listed Marriott International and Starwood Hotels have returned 91 and 33 per cent respectively. Homeinns has delivered just 6 per cent, even after the post-bid bump. Disappointed holders of the Chinese operator might be tempted to throw in the towel.

股价表现就反映了这种反差。过去24个月，万豪国际(Marriott International)和喜达屋酒店集团(Starwood Hotels)的股价分别上涨了91%和33%。而即便加上在私有化要约发出后的涨幅，如家的股价也仅仅上涨了6%。失望的股东们也许会忍不住想放弃。

This would be shortsighted. The market for domestic travel in China has potential, too. A mere tenth of China’s population hold passports, according to official data. The campaign against flashy spending further favours staying at home. Still more interesting is the premium at which China listed peers such as Shanghai Jinjiang International (40 times) and Jinling Hotel (103) trade.

要真这么做，就是目光短浅了。中国国内游市场也颇具潜力。官方数据显示，目前只有十分之一的中国人持有护照。抵制炫耀性消费的运动也对国内游有利。更有意思的是，锦江股份(Shanghai Jinjiang International)和金陵饭店(Jinling Hotel)等在国内上市的同行的估值要高出不少，锦江和金陵的市盈率分别为40倍和103倍。

These multiples may of course simply reflect China’s raging domestic bull market. Still, with such a large discrepancy, the Homeinns buyers are getting a very cheap deal for Chinese assets. The sellers should hold out for more.

当然，这些倍数可能只是反映了中国国内牛市的势头之猛。不过，既然存在如此大的估值差异，如家的买家可以说是在以非常低廉的价格购买中国资产。卖方应坚决要求更高的报价。