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分析 经济减速让北京陷入两难

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China’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, held back by a slowdown in construction and manufacturing as the government seeks to re-engineer the country’s growth model.

中国经济在第一季度以6年来最慢的速度扩张,主要受建筑业和制造业放缓的拖累。政府正试图转变中国经济增长模式。

Chinese growth underpinned the global economy in the wake of the financial crisis, but it has been slowing year by year since 2011, affecting everything from the price of iron ore to global sales of luxury goods.

中国的增长曾在金融危机后支撑了全球经济,但自2011年以来逐年放缓,影响了从国际铁矿石价格到全球奢侈品销售的很多领域。

分析 经济减速让北京陷入两难

For emerging markets that rely on Chinese demand for their commodities, the slowdown is adding to the strain as they brace themselves for the effect of a US interest rate rise that is expected later this year.

对那些依赖中国大宗商品需求的新兴市场来说,中国经济增长放缓给它们增加了压力,因为它们正准备应对美国利率上升(预计在今年晚些时候)的影响。

China’s gross domestic product grew 7 per cent in the first three months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday — the weakest quarterly expansion since the depths of the global financial crisis in early 2009. China’s economy grew 7.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014.

中国国家统计局(NBS)周三表示,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)在2015年前三个月同比增长7%。这是自2009年初全球金融危机最严重时期以来最疲弱的季度扩张。中国经济在2014年第四季度同比增长7.3%。

The Chinese government had previously announced a growth target of “around 7 per cent” for 2015. “We have the ability to keep economic operation within the proper range,” Premier Li Keqiang told the Financial Times in an interview on March 31.

中国政府此前已宣布2015年增长目标为“7%左右”。中国总理李克强在3月31日接受英国《金融时报》专访时表示,“我们有能力保持经济运行在合理区间。”

“This is not going to be easy but we will do our best and we can do it,” Mr Li added in his first interview with a western media organisation since assuming office two years ago.

他补充说,“这不是一件容易的事情,但是我们会努力做,而且相信能做到。”自两年前上任以来,这是李克强首次接受西方媒体采访。

An economic slowdown in China is widely seen as inevitable but also necessary as the country tries to move from its traditional dependence on smokestack industries towards domestic consumption and services. “We expected the fall in economic growth,” Sheng Laiyun, NBS spokesman, said on Wednesday. “As the economy enters the ‘new normal’, the drop in growth rate is good for structural adjustment and transformation.”

随着中国试图摆脱对“烟囱产业”的传统依赖,转向国内消费和服务业,中国经济放缓被广泛认为是不可避免的,也是必要的。中国国家统计局发言人、综合统计司司长盛来运周三表示:“这种回落也很正常,因为中国经济进入新常态以后,增速换挡、增速回落一定程度上讲有利于调结构和转方式。”

However, policy makers want to avoid an abrupt slowdown that could cause unemployment to spike and trigger a wave of defaults that could threaten financial stability.

不过,中国政策制定者希望避免经济突然放缓,因为这可能导致失业率激增,并引发一波债务违约潮,危及金融稳定。