中国奶制品业的复苏曙光

It is not easy to come back from a scandal involving sick infants; nor should it be. When Chinese milk producer Sanlu was caught selling product doctored with melamine in 2008, China’s entire dairy industry was tainted.

从致使婴儿得病的丑闻中恢复过来并不容易，也理应不容易。2008年，当中国奶制品生产商三鹿(Sanlu)被查出销售含有三聚氰胺的产品时，整个奶制品业都沾染了污名。

Seven years on and it is recovering — after considerable effort. Full-year results from Mengniu, one of the last brand s standing, might finally point to the future. After Wednesday’s close it said 2014 revenues were up 15 per cent and net profit up two-fifths, beating forecasts by more than a tenth. Growth in higher margin yoghurt and health drinks contributed to the beat. On Thursday, the stock rose 10 per cent.

7年过去了，中国奶制品业开始复苏——当然它为此付出了相当大的努力。未倒下的品牌之一——蒙牛(Mengniu)去年全年的业绩或许预示着未来。周三收盘之后，蒙牛表示，2014年收入同比增长15%，净利润同比上升五分之二，超出预期逾十分之一。利润率较高的酸奶和保健饮品对这一超预期的业绩做出了贡献。周四，蒙牛股价上涨了10%。

Product mix has improved, but there is more to it than that, namely operational improvement. Mengniu has been consolidating its supply chain to ensure quality control. By the end of last year, 96 per cent of its domestic raw milk supply came from larger-scale farms, up from 70 per cent in 2010. It has also built economies of scale elsewhere, lifting asset utilisation in its chilled product line with a simplified offering. Expertise from Danone of France (with 10 per cent of Mengniu) and Denmark’s Arla (5 per cent) have helped. Mengniu has also been lucky. Falling raw milk prices caused by a supply glut have boosted margins more than discounting hit revenues.

产品结构得到了改善，但不止于此，运营方面也有进步。蒙牛一直在整合其供应链以保证质量控制。到去年底，蒙牛96%的国内原奶供应来自规模化、集约化牧场，这个比例高于2010年的70%。蒙牛也在其他方面实现了规模效益，通过精简产品提高了低温产品线的资产利用率。持股蒙牛10%的法国达能(Danone)和持股5%的丹麦爱氏晨曦(Arla)带来的专业经验，对蒙牛的业绩提升也有帮助。蒙牛去年也比较走运。供应过剩所致原奶价格下跌，提升了利润，缓冲了打折销售对收入的冲击。

The company has not just wallowed in its improving fortune. Competition from foreign brands has been fierce since 2008. So as well as a supply chain offensive, Mengniu has boosted marketing spend. In 2014, selling and distribution costs rose to one-fifth of sales, that is up 6 percentage points from a decade ago. But sales, general and administrative costs are still lean by international standards. Danone, for example, spends a third of revenues on SG & A.

时来运转的蒙牛并没有沉迷于好运气。自2008年以来，来自外国品牌的竞争一直十分激烈。所以，除了在供应链上主动出击，蒙牛也增加了营销支出。2014年，销售及经销费用升至销售额的五分之一，比10年前提高了6个百分点。但以国际标准来衡量，销售、一般性及管理支出(SG & A)仍处于较低水平。比如，达能的SG & A就达到销售收入的三分之一。

There is a risk that marketing costs will keep rising faster than sales. But in a consumer market where brands have room to build, that investment should pay off.

目前蒙牛存在着营销费用增速持续高于销售额增速的风险。但在一个仍有品牌建设空间的消费者市场，这一投资应会获得回报。