时事新闻:美国企业能主导经济复苏吗?
【英文原文】
Where Consumers Fail, Can Businesses Lead?
If consumers aren't going to lead a strong economic recovery, businesses might have to. But they mightn't be up to the job.
One measure of business demand will come Wednesday morning with Census Bureau data on July durable-goods orders. Economists estimate orders for long-lasting goods made in U.S. factories surged 3% from June.
July's jump will likely be due mainly to a surge in orders for Boeing airplanes and the restart of automobile manufacturing after bankruptcy-related closures. Excluding transportation goods, some economists estimate orders rose a milder 0.5%.
To gauge business spending, economists further winnow the durable-goods data to one awkwardly named indicator called 'nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.' This roughly measures what companies spend on factory equipment and the like. It has edged higher for the past three months after plunging to a 14-year low in the first quarter, though it is still down nearly 22% from a year ago.
Part of the decline in durables demand was a massive shelf-clearing by U.S. businesses amid fears of an economic collapse. That inventory clearance seems to be over, which should help the economy.
What the economy needs now is a business spending spree that will lead to a hiring boom and rising consumer incomes.
Businesses clearly have the cash. In the first quarter, nonfinancial companies had some $14.1 trillion in financial assets, according to Federal Reserve data, or 100.1% of gross domestic product, a record high.
But after the 2001 recession, businesses accumulated cash, rather than spending it, because of the spending glut during the tech boom. They mightn't have much appetite for spending this time around, either.
They owned more than $4 trillion in equipment and software in the first quarter, about 29% of GDP, not far from the 30% that prevailed during the tech boom. Meanwhile, the nation's factories, utilities and mines in July ran at 68.5% of their production capacity, near a record low, giving them little reason to build out more capacity.
At this point, it isn't even clear that business spending will be strong enough to make the recovery self-sustaining. A business-led boom seems unlikely.
【中文译文】
美国企业能主导经济复苏吗？
如果消费者不愿主导一场强劲的经济复苏，任务可能就落到了企业的头上。不过他们未必胜任。
美国人口普查局将于周三早上发布七月份耐用品订单数，这是衡量企业需求的指数之一。经济学家预计七月份美国工厂的耐用品订单比上月增加3%。
七月订单上升很可能是因为波音飞机的订单增加，以及之前因破产而关闭的汽车生产重新恢复。除去交通产品，有些经济学家估计订单量仅上升了0.5%。
为了估算企业花费，经济学家将耐用品数据加入一个叫做“不包括飞行器的非国防资本货物”的冗长指数。这个指数衡量公司在工厂设备等产品的花费。在第一季度下探到14年来新低后，该指数在过去三个月中已有所反弹，虽然仍比去年同期低了将近22%。
该指数下跌的一部分原因是美国企业出于对经济崩溃的恐惧而进行的大量清仓。看上去清理存货现在已经结束，这对经济是有利的。
现在经济需要一场企业消费盛宴，这将会提高就业率和消费者收入。
企业无疑有充足的现金。根据美联储的数据，第一季度非金融公司的金融资产达到约14.1万亿美元，是国内生产总值的100.1%，这是有史以来的最高值。
但在2001年的经济衰退后，企业开始积攒现金，而不是花费现金，因为在科技泡沫中花了太多的钱。也许这一次他们也没有多少花钱的意愿。
第一季度企业拥有的设备和软件价值4万亿美元，约占国内生产总值的29%，跟科技泡沫期间通行的30%相去不远。同时，美国的工厂、设施及矿山七月份仅运行了68.5%的产能，接近历史最低。因此他们没有理由扩建产能。
现在看来，还不清楚企业的花费是否足以支撑经济的持续复苏。一场由企业主导的繁荣看上去不太可能。
