印度制造被基础设施拖了后腿

Yogesh Mahansaria, chief executive of Mumbai-headquartered Alliance Tire, would make a good frontman for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” campaign. And it certainly needs one.

如果让总部位于孟买的联盟轮胎(Alliance Tire)的首席执行官约格什•马汗萨里亚(Yogesh Mahansaria)，来做印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)推出的“印度制造”(Make in India)运动的代言人，那将是个很好的选择。并且这场运动确实需要一个代言人。

When Mr Modi launched the initiative some months ago, he left many people unclear about what it actually meant. To some, it is simply an amorphous rallying cry, rather than an attempt to achieve real change on the ground. To others, it is a variation on the Gandhian theme of Swadeshi — at the time, a sort of shorthand for “do not buy Manchester cloth, buy Indian instead” (never mind that Indian fabric was far more expensive back then).

当莫迪在几个月前推出该计划时，很多人不清楚其真正的意图。对一些人而言，这只是一个空洞的口号，而不是要努力实现真正的变化。对另一些人而言，这是甘地发起的抵制英货运动Swadeshi的另一个版本，当年那场Swadeshi运动的内容是“不要买曼彻斯特的布料，买印度的”（尽管当时印度布料的价格要贵得多）。

To one Japanese official based in Delhi, the campaign is more specifically about persuading Indians not to buy Chinese imports of everything from smartphones to steel.

对于驻德里的一位日本官员而言，这场运动更具体来说是说服印度人不要购买从中国进口的任何商品，从智能手机到钢材。

But, right now, it is not obvious that India can show a competitive advantage in the manufacturing of anything. Indian infrastructure remains a huge constraint. Power in most states is in short supply, ports are clogged, railways have inadequate freight capacity and the roads are even worse. Many infrastructure companies are on the verge of going bust because government-owned entities, such as the National Highway Authority of India, do not pay their bills and then contest court cases for years. Their creditor companies therefore cannot repay their banks, and the banks themselves become less willing to lend.

但就目前而言，还没有明显迹象显示印度能否在制造业的任何领域表现出竞争优势。印度的基础设施仍是一个巨大的制约因素。多数邦的电力供应短缺，港口阻塞，铁路运力不足，公路状况更糟。很多基础设施企业濒临倒闭，因为印度国家公路局(National Highway Authority)等政府所有的实体机构不缴付账单，然后打了多年的官司。因此，它们的债权人企业无法偿还银行贷款，银行变得更不愿放贷。

In addition, few Indian companies have genuine economies of scale, and poor productivity often offsets the theoretical advantage of cheap labour.

另外，印度企业几乎都没有实现真正的规模经济，生产率低下往往让理论上的廉价劳动力优势化为乌有。

To make matters worse, China, with its massive and excess capacity, has changed the economics of manufacturing worldwide. Producer prices in China have been in deflationary territory for three years. Few manufacturers anywhere in the world today have real pricing power. Trade has also been virtually flat for three years. It is possible that the east Asian model of growth through the export of “value-added” manufactured goods is dead.

让情况变得更糟的是，拥有大规模过剩产能的中国改变了全球的制造业经济学。3年来，中国的生产者价格指数一直处于通缩。如今，全球无论任何地区的制造商几乎都没有真正的定价权。3年来，贸易也一直近乎持平。东亚通过“增值”制成品出口推动增长的模式可能已破产。

If so, that would block the path to a middle-class lifestyle for masses of unskilled workers, from Dalian to Detroit to Delhi. Increased use of technology and robots is already constraining new job creation. But if jobs cannot be created, India’s “demographic dividend” of a young population becomes a curse.

如果是这样的话，这将切断大量低技能员工过上中产阶级生活的道路，从大连到底特律到德里。科技和机器人的应用扩大，已经在抑制新就业岗位的增加。但如果无法创造就业，印度年轻的人口结构带来的“人口红利”反而将成为祸害。

So far, countries such as Vietnam have able to take advantage of rising wages in China more effectively than they have in India — even though the Indian market, with a middle class that is larger than the entire population of Vietnam, should be a magnet for foreign investors. It is only very recently, however, that US and Japanese carmakers — including Ford, Nissan and Toyota — have begun to heed Mr Modi’s Make in India call.

尽管中产阶级人口比越南总人口还要多的印度市场理应成为吸引外国投资者的磁石，但迄今为止，越南等国一直比印度更能有效地利用中国薪资上涨带来的契机。直到最近，福特(Ford)、日产(Nissan)和丰田(Toyota)等美国和日本汽车制造商，才开始响应莫迪“印度制造”的呼声。

To succeed against the odds in India requires a nuanced strategy and a big dose of hope. Mr Mahansaria of Alliance Tire has both. He knows he is in a business that should become yet another victim of the huge economies of scale in China, where almost 20m cars are sold annually. So he knows he cannot compete against the Chinese. Instead, he focuses on niches that are too small to be of interest to them: he makes customised tyres (2,000 models in all) for agricultural and construction vehicles, supplying multinationals such as Caterpillar. These tyres require a high level of engineering, which plays to India’s strength: its elite universities produce some of the most skilled engineers on the planet.

印度要排除万难取得成功需要一种细致的战略和宏大的愿望。联盟轮胎的马汗萨里亚这两个都有。他知道，中国每年的汽车销量高达近2000万辆，拥有巨大的规模经济效应，应该会让他所处的行业成为另一个牺牲品。因此，他知道他不可能与中国人竞争。他转而关注于规模太小、中国人不感兴趣的“利基”领域：他为农业和建筑车辆生产定制轮胎（共2000个型号），供应给卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)等跨国企业。这些轮胎对工艺水平要求很高，而这恰好可利用到印度的优势：该国的一流大学培养出了全球一些技能最为高超的工程师。

Mr Mahansaria opened his first plant in Tamil Nadu and, two years ago, he was bemoaning the fact that he had to be in the power business as well — because of the perennial deficit of power in that southern state. Today, the generators he had installed are only infrequently switched on. Instead, he can take advantage of energy exchanges and small private plants that have recently opened.

马汗萨里亚在位于印度南部的泰米尔纳德邦(Tamil Nadu)开办了第一家工厂，两年前，他还在抱怨，因为这个邦常年电力供应不足，自己不得不进入电力行业。如今，他当年安装的发电机已很少开动了。他可以利用最近开办的能源交易所和小型私营工厂。

“The government is bankrupt,” he says. “They are finally allowing the private sector to fill the gap.” Similarly, his second and newest plant, in Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat, has access to newly constructed private sector ports that make the process of exporting far easier.

“政府面临破产，”他表示，“他们终于允许私营部门来填补空白了。”类似的，在莫迪的家乡古吉拉特邦，马汗萨里亚的第二家、也是最新建成的工厂，可以利用新建的私营港口，大大方便出口流程。

Indeed, Mr Mahansaria is considering switching his focus to opportunities in the domestic market, for the very first time. “The health of global markets is a big concern,” he says. “Only three countries — India, the UK and the US — are doing well. The other 117 have their own challenges. Today, we are asking if India can be 5 per cent to 10 per cent of our revenues in the next five years instead of 1 per cent to 2 per cent.”

实际上，马汗萨里亚正头一次考虑将他的关注点转向国内市场上的各种机遇。“海外市场的健康状况非常令人担忧，”他表示，“眼下只有3个国家表现不错，印度、英国和美国。其他117个国家都面临各自的挑战。如今，我们在考虑，未来5年，印度能否占到我们营收的5%至10%，而不是1%至2%。”

Now it is up to Mr Modi to not disappoint businessmen like Mr Mahansaria.

如今，要让马汗萨里亚这样的商人不失望，就看莫迪的了。