美国石油储量达到1975年以来峰值
US proven oil reserves last year rose to their highest level since 1975, official figures have shown, in the latest sign of how the shale revolution has transformed the country’s Energy supply outlook.
官方数据显示，去年美国已探明石油储量攀升至1975年以来的最高水平。这一数据又一次显示了页岩革命如何改变了美国的能源供应前景。Proven reserves — oil that is expected to be recoverable with existing technology at current prices — were in decline in the US up until 2009, when companies began experiments with producing oil from the Bakken shale of North Dakota.
已探明储量指的是预计可以用现有技术、在现有油价下开采的石油储量。直到2009年，美国已探明储量始终在下降。2009年，多家企业启动了从北达科他州巴肯(Bakken)页岩中开采石油的实验，从而扭转了下降势头。
Rising reserves are an indication that higher US oil production, which has risen about 80 per cent since 2008, can be maintained in the longer term, although the recent slump in oil prices is expected to lead to cutbacks in activity and a slowdown in output growth over the coming months.
虽然最近油价的暴跌预计会导致石油开采活动萎缩，并在之后几个月内导致石油产量增长放缓，然而不断攀升的石油储备仍然表明：美国石油产量能在较长时期内维持在较高水平。自2008年以来，美国石油产量已增长了大约80%。
Crude has fallen nearly 40 per cent since June, on the back of surging US production combined with slowing global oil demand. Brent, the international benchmark, fell 18 per cent last month alone as Opec, the producers’ cartel, decided not to cut output. Brent was trading just below $70 a barrel on Thursday afternoon.
由于美国产量的激增，再加上全球石油需求的放缓，原油价格自今年6月以来已经下跌了近40%。石油输出国组织(Opec, 简称欧佩克)决定不缩减产能，作为国际基准的布伦特(Brent)原油仅上个月就下跌了18%。周四下午，布伦特基准原油的价格略低于每桶70美元。Last year companies in the US produced about 2.7bn barrels from their reserves, but added 5.5bn in new discoveries, according to the government’s Energy Information Administration.
根据美国政府能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)的数据，去年石油企业在美国的石油开采量大约为27亿桶，而新发现的储量则为55亿桶。As a result, the US ended 2013 with about 36.5bn barrels of proven oil reserves: a rise of 9.3 per cent over the year, and one of the highest levels ever reported in records that go back to the 19th century.
这意味着，2013年底美国已探明石油储量约为365亿桶，全年增长9.3%，是这19世纪以来最高水平之一。The peak came in 1970, when the industry reported proven reserves of 39bn barrels of crude oil.
目前，美国已探明石油储量最高的一年是1970年，当时其石油产业报出已探明原油储量为390亿桶。However, the US is today still well behind Russia and Canada in terms of proven reserves, and also behind most Opec members.
不过，以已探明储量而言，今日的美国仍然远远落后于俄罗斯和加拿大，也落后于大多数欧佩克成员国。Saudi Arabia’s proven oil reserves, the world’s largest conventional ones, were 266bn barrels at the end of last year, according to the BP Statistical Review.
沙特阿拉伯是全球常规石油储量最大的国家，根据《英国石油公司世界能源统计年鉴》(BP Statistical Review of World Energy)的数据，去年底该国已探明石油储量是2660亿桶。The largest additions to US reserves were in the Bakken shale, which gained 1.68bn barrels in 2013, and the Eagle Ford shale of south Texas, which gained 805m barrels.
对美国来说，石油储量的最大增长来自巴肯页岩和德克萨斯南部的鹰滩(Eagle Ford)页岩。2013年，前者为美国增加了16.8亿桶储量，后者为美国增加了8.05亿桶储量。The additions in the Bakken are equivalent to the discovery of what would be known in the industry as a “giant” field, and are larger than any single field discovered worldwide in 2013.
巴肯页岩带来的储量增长等价于发现一个业内所说的“大”油田，也大于2013年全球发现的任何单个油田的储量。US proven reserves of natural gas also grew strongly in 2013, rising 9.7 per cent to 354tn cubic feet.
2013年，美国已探明天然气储量也增长强劲，增长了9.7%，达到354万亿立方英尺。The EIA’s estimates are based on companies’ reports of their proven reserves, which reflect their plans for drilling over the next five years.
美国能源情报署的储量估计是基于各公司已探明储量报告得出的，这些报告反映了这些公司未来五年的钻井计划。The 2013 estimate is based on an average oil price of about $97 per barrel for US benchmark crude. Crude’s fall to about $67 this week means that some previously reported proven reserves will become uneconomic.
另外，对2013年储量的估值，基于美国基准原油价格为大约每桶97美元的假设。而就在本周，原油价格下跌至每桶67美元左右，意味着此前报出的部分已探明储量的开采会变得不再经济。That fall will have only a “moderate” effect on estimates this year, the EIA said. Companies use average prices when assessing their reserves, and the decline has come only at the end of the year, so the average price for 2014 as a whole will be higher.
美国能源情报署表示，油价的下跌只会对今年的储量估计带来“很弱”的影响。石油企业在评估储量时使用的是平均油价，而油价的暴跌只是年底的事，2014年全年平均油价总体上应该会更高一些。
