哈萨克斯坦加速开放经济

In the last days of the Soviet Union, one of Mikhail Gorbachev’s lieutenants came to him with a plea: ditch the Soviet planned economy and open up to ­market reforms as China had.

在前苏联最后的日子里，米哈伊尔•戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)的一位副手曾这样请求他：放弃苏联的计划经济，像中国那样推行市场改革。

“I said, ‘At the end of the day, if you don’t have any strategy, look at what China has done’,” recalled Nursultan Nazarbayev, now the president of ­Kazakhstan, in a recent speech.

现任哈萨克斯坦总统的努尔苏丹•纳扎尔巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)在最近一次演讲中回忆道：“我当时说，‘如果您到最后还拿不出战略的话，就看看中国所做的吧’。”

Mr Gorbachev rejected the suggestion. But 25 years later Mr Nazarbayev is pinning his own hopes on an ambitious programme of privatisation and market reform to stave off an economic crisis.

戈尔巴乔夫拒绝了他的建议。25年后，纳扎尔巴耶夫自己把希望寄托在了一项大规模的私有化和市场改革计划上，以求防范经济危机。

A strong economy has underpinned Mr Nazarbayev’s popularity since he took office in 1991. But buffeted by the slowdown in China, the effect of the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy and plunging oil prices, the International Monetary Fund has forecast growth will slow this year to 4.6 per cent from 6 per cent in 2013.

自1991年上台以来，哈萨克斯坦经济昌盛，这巩固了纳扎尔巴耶夫的民望。但受中国经济放缓、乌克兰危机拖累俄罗斯经济以及油价下挫等因素影响，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测，哈萨克斯坦今年的经济增速将从2013年的6%降至4.6%。

“Kazakhstan, as a part of the global economy and a country close to the epicentre of geopolitical tension, is feeling the negative effects,” said Mr Nazarbayev in an address to the nation last week.

纳扎尔巴耶夫上周向全国发表讲话时表示：“作为全球经济的一部分以及一个靠近地缘政治紧张局势中心的国家，哈萨克斯坦正感受到负面影响。”

He also announced a $9bn stimulus for the economy from the national oil fund to encourage investment in Kazakh infrastructure.

他还宣布了一项90亿美元的经济刺激计划，以鼓励对哈萨克斯坦基础设施的投资，资金将来自国家石油基金。

Meanwhile, bankers and executives in the country say the economic slowdown is having a big effect on business confidence. “We see less demand for loans – people are really being careful about expanding their businesses,” says Magzhan Auezov, managing director of Kazkommertsbank, the country’s largest lender.

与此同时，该国银行界人士和企业高管表示，经济放缓正对企业信心造成巨大影响。全国最大的银行——哈萨克商业银行(Kazkommertsbank)董事总经理马格詹•奥耶佐夫(Magzhan Auezov)表示：“我们看到贷款需求下滑，人们确实对扩大业务态度谨慎。”

Kazakhstan’s government, which relies on oil for more than half its ­revenues, is revising down budget projections for next year on the basis of an oil price of $80 a barrel.

哈萨克斯坦政府正以每桶80美元的油价为基础，下调明年的预算估测。该国政府逾一半的收入依赖石油。

“We knew that oil prices would fall one day – that’s the reason all this package of reforms started,” says Yerlan Sagadiyev, vice-minister of investment and development. “We now have to move a lot faster.”

“我们知道油价总有一天会下跌，这就是我们推出改革计划的原因，”负责投资和发展的副部长叶尔兰•萨加季耶夫(Yerlan Sagadiyev)表示，“我们现在必须更快行动。”

But people familiar with the government’s thinking say that the urgency behind the programme of privatisations and regulatory reforms is more than just an attempt to stimulate Kazakhstan’s economy. It is also an attempt to secure western investment in Kazakhstan’s future at a time when Russia is showing little respect for post-Soviet borders.

但了解哈萨克斯坦政府想法的人士称，该国迫切推行私有化和监管改革计划不仅仅是为了刺激经济。还有一个目的是，在俄罗斯对苏联解体以后的国界几乎没有表现出任何尊重之际，争取西方对哈萨克斯坦未来的投资。

When asked a question at a carefully choreographed public meeting in Russia in August about whether Kazakhstan, which has a large ethnic Russian population, could face a “Ukraine scenario”, Vladimir Putin caused alarm in Astana by saying that the Kazakh people had never had a state before Mr Nazarbayev was president.

在今年8月在俄罗斯召开的一次经过精心设计的公开会议上，有人问了弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)这样一个问题：拥有大量俄罗斯族裔的哈萨克斯坦是否会面临“乌克兰情景”？普京的回答在阿斯塔纳引起恐慌，他表示，在纳扎尔巴耶夫担任总统以前，哈萨克人从未建立过国家。

Dosym Satpayev, head of Risk Assessment Group, a think-tank in Almaty, says the country is at a critical juncture. “It’s like the Titanic. There was a very beautiful opening, but now we can see a lot of icebergs,” he said.

阿拉木图智库——风险评估集团(Risk Assessment Group)负责人多瑟姆•萨帕耶夫(Dosym Satpayev)表示，哈萨克斯坦正处于紧要关头。他表示：“它就像是那艘泰坦尼克号(Titanic)。开头非常美好，但现在我们能看到很多冰山。”

In response, the Kazakh government has worked at a frantic pace to push through reforms to reinvigorate the economy by wooing western investors. Last month, the country signed a “partnership and co-operation pact” with the EU, and it is hoping to become a member of the World Trade Organisation in the next few months. It has relaxed visa requirements, cut back bureaucracy, and is offering subsidies for big foreign investors.

针对当前形势，哈萨克斯坦政府以紧锣密鼓的节奏，大力推动改革，以期通过吸引西方投资者，为经济重新注入活力。该国上月与欧盟(EU)签署“伙伴关系与合作协议”，并希望在未来几个月内加入世界贸易组织(WTO)。该国放宽了签证要求，削减了官僚程序，并向外国大型投资者提供补贴。

Central to the reforms is Samruk-Kazyna, the sprawling sovereign wealth fund for the state’s interests in the country, which employs 350,000 people and accounts for a quarter of all investment in the Kazakh economy.

在这些改革中，规模庞大、代表国家利益的主权财富基金Samruk-Kazyna处于核心地位。该基金拥有多达35万员工，占哈萨克斯坦经济投资总额的四分之一。

Samruk, a focus for critics of the bureaucracy and corruption in Kazakhstan’s economy, plans to sell off half of the 600 companies it owns within three years.

Samruk计划在3年内将旗下600家公司出售一半。对哈萨克斯坦经济中存在的官僚主义和腐败持批评态度的人士密切关注着这家基金。

It has already sold many of the sanatoria, kindergartens, and holiday camps that it owned as a legacy of the Soviet era. Next month, it plans to list the state electricity company, Kegoc, on the Kazakh stock exchange.

目前该基金已出售了其在前苏联时代就拥有的很多疗养院、幼儿园和度假营地。下个月，该基金计划将国家电力公司Kegoc在哈萨克斯坦股票交易所上市。

In parallel, the sovereign fund is putting emphasis on co-operation with international companies. “We believe that the presence of private investors in our capital is essential,” said Umirzak Shukeyev, chief executive of the fund, in an interview with the Financial Times. “We are telling our companies that new projects should include a private ­company as a strategic investor.”

同时，该主权基金还将重点放在了与跨国企业的合作上面。“我们认为，私人投资者在我们首都出现至关重要，”该基金首席执行官乌米尔扎克•舒克耶夫(Umirzak Shukeyev)在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，“我们正告诉我们的企业，新的项目应引入私营企业作为战略投资者。”

Some observers are ­sceptical that the Kazakh government can do much to woo investors fearful of the fallout from the Ukraine crisis.

关于哈萨克斯坦政府能否采取大量措施，吸引那些对乌克兰危机影响感到担忧的投资者，一些观察人士持怀疑态度。

However, Janet Heckman, head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in Almaty, says that companies that had previously planned investments in Russia are now turning to Kazakhstan. “We’re starting to see some real investors . . . people looking at Kazakhstan as an alternative to Russia,” said Ms Heckman

不过，欧洲复兴开发银行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)在阿拉木图的负责人珍尼特•埃克曼(Janet Heckman)表示，一些之前计划在俄罗斯投资的企业现在将目光转向了哈萨克斯坦。她表示：“我们开始看到一些真正的投资者……人们将哈萨克斯坦视为俄罗斯的替代选择。”

Kairat Kelimbetov, governor of the Kazakh central bank, says the fall in oil prices, is “kind of good news for people who want to change something”.

哈萨克斯坦央行行长卡伊拉特•克里姆别托夫(Kairat Kelimbetov)表示，油价下跌“对于那些希望发生一些变化的人们来说是个好消息”。