社科院发布蓝皮书 明年经济增速放缓至6.5%

China's economy will expand by around 6.5% year-on-year in 2017, and Consumer Price Index inflation will Moderately rise to 2.2%, according to forecasts in a blue book released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) last Monday.

中国社科院上周一发布的蓝皮书预测，2017年，我国经济将同比增长6.5%左右，居民消费价格指数将温和上涨至2.2%。

No economic hard landing will occur, according to the blue book.

该蓝皮书称，我国经济不会发生硬着陆。

Key indicators, such as fixed-asset investment and retail sales growth, will ease moderately next year, it said.

蓝皮书称，明年，固定资产投资和零售总额等关键指标的增速均会出现小幅回落。

But yuan-denominated export growth will pick up to from 4% to 6% in 2017, said Jin Baisong, a researcher from the Ministry of Commerce.

商务部研究员金柏松称，不过2017年按人民币标价的出口将增长4%-6%。

"The yuan's depreciation against the US dollar may range from 3% to 5% next year, but seen from the middle and long term, the dollar may peak by 2018, and after that, it will start to fall," he said.

他表示："明年，人民币兑美元可能贬值3-5%，但从中长期看，美元或于2018年前达到峰值，之后将开始回落。"

The CASS blue book also called for a more pro-active fiscal policy to stabilize growth next year.

中科院蓝皮书还呼吁，明年应加大积极财政政策的实施力度来稳增长。

The fiscal deficit can be allowed to moderately rise and more tax cuts should be available to enterprises, it suggested.

该蓝皮书建议，适度扩大财政赤字规模、更多地降低企业税费负担。