关注社会:中国经济放缓利于再平衡

Few temples to conspicuous consumption are as quirky as the Florentia Village, a sprawling “authentic Italian luxury outlet centre” on the outskirts of China’s northern city of Tianjin that boasts its own ersatz Colosseum.
很少有哪个“炫耀性消费”场所能像佛罗伦萨小镇(Florentia Village)一样给人带来惊奇。佛罗伦萨小镇地处中国北方城市天津市的郊外，是一处占地甚广“纯正意大利风格的名品奥特莱斯”，有仿建的斗兽场。
Even on a weekday afternoon, hundreds of shoppers stroll the Italianate lanes of the 60,000m2 outdoor complex with their rows of discount brand outlets selling everything from Prada bags to Puma shoes.
即便是工作日的下午，也有成百上千的购物者在这个小镇充满意大利风情的街道上溜达。佛罗伦萨小镇的建筑面积为6万平方米，品牌折扣商店林立，各色名品琳琅满目，从普拉达(Prada)背包到彪马(Puma)鞋应有尽有。
The “village” is just one of a host of new shopping opportunities that have sprung up across China in recent years, testament to the fast-growing power of the nation’s consumers.
这个“小镇”只是中国近年来涌现的大量购物场所之一，它是中国消费者快速崛起的标志。
Yet with China’s economy slowing – to a relatively modest annual rate of 8.1 per cent growth in the first quarter – some observers fret that consumption could be faltering. Retail spending in April was weaker than expected. And while Wen Jiabao, the premier, last week signalled action to shore up growth, the government’s policy focus looks set to be on promoting investment rather than consumption.
但随着中国经济放缓——今年第一季度增长年率降至相对温和的8.1%——有些观察人士担心，消费增长可能停滞。4月零售额就低于预期。尽管中国总理温家宝上周发出了刺激增长的信号，但中国政府的政策重心似乎将落在刺激投资而不是刺激消费上。
Not everyone is worried. Analysts at Jefferies say state data show China’s retail sector is set to rebound, creating buying opportunities for stock investors. “Our recent channel checks with retailers and retail associations also suggest that retail sales are seeing a gradual recovery,” they said in a report released on Thursday.
并非所有人都感到担忧。杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师表示，官方数据显示，中国零售行业即将反弹，为股市投资者创造买入机会。他们在上周四发布的一份报告中称，“近来我们对零售商和零售商协会的渠道调查也表明，零售销售额正在逐步回升。”
Staff at outlets in Florentia Village, too, insist business is good at the complex, which opened in January 2011.
佛罗伦萨小镇商铺工作人员也表示，目前生意很好。该购物广场是2011年1月开业的。
On Friday Wang Yongqiang and Tang Ying, a young couple, were delighted to snap up his-and-hers Levi’s at what Ms Tang described as a good discount to prices in central Tianjin. “We do quite a lot of shopping,” Ms Tang says.
上周五，年轻夫妇王永强（音）和唐颖（音）在这里买了不少Levi's品牌的牛仔服。他们很高兴，唐颖表示，这里的价格比起天津市中心有很大的折扣，“我们会买很多东西。”
With household incomes still rising, consumption growth is unlikely to fall dramatically, says Andrew Batson, research director at GK Dragonomics.
龙洲经讯(GK Dragonomics)研究主任白安儒(Andrew Batson)表示，由于家庭收入仍在增长，消费增长不大可能出现大幅下滑。
Indeed, Mr Batson suggests the present slowdown could promote a much-heralded rebalancing of China’s economy away from reliance on increasingly unproductive investment to a healthier consumption-driven model.
白安儒表示，实际上，当前的放缓可能有利于促进中国经济再平衡，也就是从依赖于投资这种日益无效的模式，转向更健康的消费驱动型增长模式。

While the government has long talked of such a shift, the proportion of gross domestic product accounted for by investment actually soared to 46 per cent in 2010, while household consumption’s share of GDP slumped to just 35 per cent.
尽管中国政府早就在谈论转型，但2010年投资占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例仍上升至46%，而家庭消费在GDP中的占比却下滑至为35%。
This is not because people are failing to spend more – at nearly 8 per cent, Chinese household consumption growth far outstripped the average for developing Asia last decade – but simply because it could not keep pace with GDP.
这并非由于中国人没有增加消费。过去十年，中国家庭消费增长率接近8%，远远高于亚洲发展中国家的平均水平。只是因为消费增速跟不上GDP的增速。
Now, says Mr Batson, “rebalancing can come from steady consumption growth and declining investment”.
白安儒表示，目前，“消费稳步增长，投资水平下降，这可能使中国实现再平衡。”
Some economists say the government needs to do more to promote this rebalancing in a country where citizens still save a far larger proportion of their incomes than developed economy counterparts.
有些经济学家表示，中国政府需要采取更多措施来推动经济再平衡。在中国，储蓄占收入的比例仍远高于西方国家。
Even the enthusiastic shopper Ms Tang and her husband squirrel away more than half of their joint income of around Rmb10,000 a month, they say, for a home of their own, a nicer car and a hoped-for baby. “Chinese love to save money,” says Mr Wang.
即使像唐颖和她丈夫这么爱购物的人，也会把他们总共约1万元人民币的月收入中的一半以上储蓄起来。他们表示，他们要为将来买房、换辆好车还有养孩子准备好钱。王永强表示：“中国人就爱存钱。”
Lower-income consumers also save fiercely. In the village of Wuti in northern Hebei province, house builder Li Moxiang and his farmer wife aim to set aside Rmb20,000 or more a year to help raise their future grandchild – even though stingy state-set interest rates mean such savings are constantly eroded by inflation.
低收入群体也在使劲地存钱。在北方省份河北的吴提村，李茂湘（音）是个建筑工，他妻子是农民，他们打算每年至少攒下2万元人民币，以帮助抚养未来的孙辈——即使国家设定的极低存款利率意味着，他们的储蓄将一直受到通胀的侵蚀。
“We don’t buy much in the way of clothing and other things because we want to put money aside,” Mr Li says.
李茂湘表示，“我们因为要存钱，都不怎么买衣服和其他物品。”
A big motivation for such saving is lack of a social security system to cushion Chinese in old age or ill health. Serious illness or accident often spells household bankruptcy. For most rural people, children have to play the role of pension provider.
中国人存钱的一大动机在于，中国缺乏完善的社会保障制度，在他们年老或生病时提供支持。中国家庭如果有人得了大病或出了事故，经常会落得倾家荡产。对于大多数农民而言，子女必须承担起为父母养老的责任。
In a report this week, the World Bank said fiscal measures to support consumption – including targeted tax cuts, social welfare spending and other social expenditures – should be Beijing’s top priority as it seeks to avert an economic “hard landing”.
世界银行(World Bank)在本周发布的一份报告中表示，由于中国政府寻求避免经济“硬着陆”，刺激消费的财政措施——包括针对性的减税、社会福利开支以及其他社会开支——应当成为政府工作的重中之重。
Some economists would like to see mass privatisation to shift wealth out of the dominant and domineering state sector.
有些经济学家希望政府实施大规模私有化，将财富从占主导地位、高高在上的国有部门中转移出来。
Many Chinese would certainly like the chance to share a little more in the nation’s ever-more conspicuously displayed wealth.
在这个炫富行为越来越盛行的国家，许多人肯定喜欢这种能够让他们多分享一点财富的机会。
In the gritty Hebei town of Langfang, migrant worker Duan Tingchun, 34, spends his days cleaning the glass fa?ade of the towering Wanda Plaza, home to an Imax cinema and shops including France’s Carrefour and Uniqlo of Japan.
在河北省廊坊市这个砂质化的地方，34岁农民工段廷春（音）的工作是为万达广场清洗玻璃幕墙。万达广场里有一家Imax电影院，并汇集了包括法国家乐福(Carrefour)和日本优衣库(Uniqlo)在内的众多商家。
Mr Duan makes Rmb160 a day he works – not paid if rain prevents cleaning – and on Friday was preparing for a gruelling bus ride south to the family farm to help bring in a harvest. He would like to spend more, he says, but has no illusions about his own limited ability to boost Chinese consumption. “If you don’t have much money, you can’t consume much,” he says.
段廷春干一天活能挣160元人民币，遇到雨天没法清洗时，就赚不到钱。上周五他正准备踏上一段艰苦的旅途——坐长途大巴南下，回老家帮忙收割庄稼。他表示，他倒是想多花钱，但对自己刺激中国消费的有限能力不抱什么幻想。“如果你本来就没有多少钱，你使劲花也花不了多少。”译者:邢嵬