中国经济实现再平衡的三条途径

After rising for seven years, the yuan has dropped 1% against the dollar in 2012, setting off intense speculation about Beijing's intentions. The threat of a weaker yuan and the competitive devaluations it might inspire is raising worries in a world already struggling with low demand.

在连续七年上升之后，人民币兑美元汇率在2012年下跌了1%，这引发了市场对北京意图的强烈猜测。人民币走软的威胁以及可能由此引发的竞争性货币贬值令一个已经在同低迷需求做斗争的世界倍感忧虑。

These worries are justified. Beijing urgently needs to rebalance its economy away from excessive reliance on investment toward more domestic consumption. Some Chinese policy makers evidently believe that by boosting China's competitiveness abroad, a weaker yuan will provide some relief from the sharp slowdown associated with rebalancing.

这些担忧是有道理的。北京迫切需要重新实现经济平衡，从过度依赖投资转向提高国内消费水平。中国的一些政策制定者显然认为，人民币贬值会提高中国商品在国际市场的竞争力，从而令实现再平衡过程中出现的经济增速大幅放缓的问题得到某种程度的缓解。

There is, however, a lot more to Chinese competitiveness than the exchange rate. In fact, three mechanisms explain the relatively low price of Chinese exports, all of which transfer income from Chinese households to subsidize Chinese producers.

然而，想要提高中国商品的竞争力，除了压低汇率水平，还有很多办法。事实上，三大机制解释了中国出口商品相对便宜的原因。所有这些机制将收入从中国家庭转移至中国的生产企业，对后者进行补贴。

The currency regime is certainly one of them. An undervalued currency spurs exports by subsidizing costs for local manufacturers. These subsidies are effectively paid for by Chinese households in the form of artificially higher prices for imported goods.

汇率机制毫无疑问是其中之一。货币贬值以补贴国内生产企业的成本的方式刺激出口。这些补贴实际上由中国家庭支付，他们通过购买价格被人为推高的进口商品对上述企业进行了补贴。

The second mechanism does the same thing, but with a different set of winners and losers. Chinese workers' wages have grown more slowly than productivity for most of the past three decades, which means that until two years ago workers received a steadily declining share of what they produce. Manufacturers benefit because wages are effectively subsidized. The more labor-intensive production is, the greater the subsidy.

第二大机制的原理和汇率机制相同，只不过补贴和被补贴的对象有所不同。过去30年的大部分时间里，中国工人的工资增速远低于生产力增速，这意味着直到两年前工人收入占工人产出的比重还在稳步下滑。生产企业受益是因为工人少拿的这部分工资实际上对企业形成了补贴。一家生产企业劳动密集程度越高，得到的补贴也就越多。

The third mechanism, and by far the most important, is artificially low interest rates. These reduce household income by reducing the return on household savings, and increase manufacturing competitiveness by lowering the cost of capital, with more capital-intensive producers benefitting the most.

第三大机制，也是迄今为止最重要的一个机制就是人为压低的利率。这一做法通过降低居民储蓄的回报降低了家庭收入，并通过降低资本的成本增加了制造业的竞争力，越是资本密集型的生产企业受益越大。

All these subsidies goose economic growth, but they distribute the benefits in different ways-to local producers, employers, or borrowers. They also distribute the costs in different ways-to households as importers, as workers or as savers.

所有这些补贴机制都能促进经济增长，但不同机制分配利益、摊销成本的方式不同。上述三大机制的受益人包括国内生产企业、雇主和借款人，而对这些受益人进行补贴的一方则包括购买进口商品的家庭、工人以及储蓄者。

These three mechanisms cause the economy to grow faster at the expense of households. That's the root of China's unbalanced economy: household income has grown so much more slowly than the economy that household consumption over the past three decades has collapsed as a share of GDP.

这三种机制使中国经济在让中国家庭做出牺牲的情况下以更快的速度增长。这正是中国经济失衡的根源：与中国经济的增速相比，中国家庭收入的增速要慢得多，这导致过去30年里家庭消费占GDP的比重大幅下降。

Rebalancing in China means by definition that the household consumption share of GDP must rise, and the only effective way to do this is by raising the household income share of GDP. But for all the noises Washington and others make about revaluing the currency, this isn't the only way. There are two other mechanisms at Beijing's disposal.

顾名思义，中国经济要实现再平衡就要让家庭消费占GDP的比重上升，而做到这一点的唯一有效方式就是提高家庭收入占GDP的比重。尽管美国政府以及其他人都在要求中国重估人民币币值，但升值并非唯一的途径。还有两套机制可资北京利用。

Consider who exactly wins and loses with each mechanism. Yuan appreciation will disproportionately help urban households-for whom import costs tend to be important. And it will disproportionately hurt manufacturers to the extent that their production inputs─mainly labor, land, logistics and raw materials-are priced domestically.

让我们来看看每种机制下各自的赢家和输家分别是谁。人民币升值会给中国城市家庭带来较大的好处，因为对这部分家庭来说购买进口商品的支出变动对其影响很大。但人民币升值对生产企业的伤害很大，这是因为他们为生产而投入的要素（主要是劳动力、土地、物流和原材料）是按人民币定价的。

Raising Chinese wages will help household income too. It will disproportionately help low-paid workers, while disproportionately hurting labor-intensive manufacturers who tend to be small and medium enterprises.

提高中国工人工资也有助于提高家庭收入。此举受益最大的当属低收入工人，但劳动密集型生产企业会因此受到严重影响，这些企业多半是中小型企业。

But the best way to rebalance is raising interest rates. Of all the three mechanisms, this is the most important one, since it strikes at the heart of the imbalances generated by China's investment-led growth model.

加息是实现中国经济再平衡的最佳路径。在上述三种机制当中，加息是最为重要的一个，因为对于中国投资拉动型增长模式所造成的经济失衡来说，这一手段能够正中要害。

By skewing the financial system, Beijing has managed to distort the whole economy which is built on that system. If the government hikes the cost of capital, the winners will be every saver, whose higher income will then allow him to consume more. The losers are the large capital-intensive companies, usually state-owned enterprises, who for too long have treated the banks as ATMs.

通过扭曲金融体系，中国政府也扭曲了构筑于这一体系之上的整个经济。如果政府提高资本的成本，受益的将是每一个储蓄者。收入增加之后，储蓄者也就能够扩大消费支出。受损的则是资本密集型的大企业（通常是国有企业）。这些企业长年将银行当作自己的提款机。

This mechanism can change incentives for everyone. For the sake of more sustainable and equitable long-term growth, it is almost certainly better if Beijing raises interest rates. Higher interest rates will reduce the incentive to invest in economically dubious projects that benefit local elites, and will force a more efficient allocation of Chinese savings.

加息将改变每个人所面临的激励机制。为了实现更可持续且公平的长期增长，如果中国政府能够加息，情况几乎肯定可以变得更好。加息会降低有关方面投资那些经济效益存疑项目的动力（国内的精英阶层是这些项目的受益方），并迫使银行更有效率地利用储蓄款。

Which path of rebalancing China chooses in practice will reflect domestic priorities and political maneuvering, though the good news is they'll all broadly have the same impact. Each path is painful, and they all ensure that China's export costs will rise and its foreign competitiveness will go down. In return, its domestic market will become a bigger source of demand. The world should not, in other words, be overly concerned with what happens just to the exchange rate.

中国最终选择哪条路径以实现经济再平衡实际上反映的是政府优先考虑的国内问题以及这背后的政治角力。但好消息是不管选择哪条路径，最后的效果大体一致。每一条道路都布满了荆棘，且无一例外的是，出口成本将上升，中国商品的国际竞争力将下降。但好处是中国国内市场将成为需求的一个更大来源。换句话说，世界不该只是过分关心人民币汇率将如何变动。