世界看不懂 中国经济的反平衡之举

As the globe frets over Brexit, China worries have been superseded — for now, at least. On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics released a slew of second-quarter economic data. Headlining the figures, the country’s gross domestic product grew 10 basis points faster than forecast, up 6.7 per cent. The quality (not to mention reliability) of that growth is questionable.

在全球为英国退欧而烦恼之际，中国引发的担忧已“退居二线”——至少目前是这样。上周五，中国国家统计局公布了一系列今年第二季度的经济数据。在这些数据中，最为重要的是中国国内生产总值(GDP)。今年第二季度，中国的GDP同比增长了6.7%，增幅比预期高了10个基点。这一增长的品质是值得怀疑的——更不用提其可靠性了。

China is quieter these days regarding its desire to address economic imbalances. And Friday’s data show more clearly that the government has rowed back from reform in favour of stimulus measures, pumping money into the system to stabilise growth. Figures from the People’s Bank of China the same day showed that money supply growth was faster than expected, reaching levels last seen post 2008. New loans also rose by over $200bn, more than $50bn higher than economists’ estimates.

近来，中国已不再像之前那样频繁地提及渴望解决经济失衡问题了。上周五的数据更为清晰地表明，中国政府已从改革的道路上回撤，转而力挺刺激性措施，将资金注入经济体系以稳定增长。同一天来自中国央行的数据显示，货币供应增速高于预期，达到了2008年后那段时期才有的水平。新增贷款也增长逾2000亿美元，比经济学家的估计高了逾500亿美元。

Still, the data also show that China’s economic focus continues to shift. Retail sales grew faster than expected, with year on year growth accelerating from the first quarter. Consumption accounted for nearly three quarters of the first half’s GDP growth, according to the NBS. Meanwhile, fixed asset investment growth slowed. Yet the investment that did occur was largely state sponsored; private enterprises barely increased their spending.

不过，数据也表明中国的经济重心在继续转移。社会消费品零售总额增长速度超过预期，同比增速高于今年一季度。中国国家统计局数据显示，上半年GDP增长近四分之三由消费贡献。与此同时，固定资产投资增长则已放缓。不过，真正发生的投资，资金大多来自国家；民营企业的开支几乎没有增长。

The reversion to state-led growth is unsustainable. Should China continue to shun reforms in favour of a quick fix, the short-term benefits of stabilised growth will be outweighed by the cost of persistent imbalances.

这种向国家主导型增长的回归是不可持续的。如果中国回避改革而偏好快速解决方案，持续性失衡造成的损失将超过企稳的增长带来的短期好处。