中国经济放缓对外国公司意味着什么?

By now, most Americans have heard that China's economy is slowing to some extent. And they've heard that China's slow-down may be a drag on U.S. growth. But American businesses in particular may not yet have asked themselves what a Chinese slow-down will mean to their companies individually. The answer might be surprising. Hint: It's not only about how your sales to China will be affected.

截至目前，大多数美国人都已经听说中国经济某种程度上正在放缓。他们也了解到，中国经济放缓可能会拖累美国的经济增长。但是，美国的企业却可能还没有问问自己：中国经济减速对自己这家企业将意味着什么？答案可能会让人感到意外。给你个提示：受到影响的可不仅仅是贵公司在中国的销售额。

Take regulation. Since China's government shapes the direction of its economy on both a macro and a micro level, governmental reaction to the slowdown will greatly influence every company doing business there. An analysis of what the Chinese government will do on the economic front should start with the assumption that it will act to minimize citizen discontent so as to keep its hold on power. The government is much more concerned with social harmony than with economic numbers.

以监管为例。由于中国政府在宏观和微观层面规划着本国经济的走向，它对经济放缓的反应会对在华经营的每一家公司产生巨大影响。若要分析中国政府在经济方面将采取何种措施，首先应该假定，中国政府为了政权的稳定会努力把公众的不满降到最低。中国政府对社会和谐的关注度要远高于对经济数据的关注。

The government is encouraging wage growth-including a greater-than-normal tolerance for union-style labor activism at foreign-owned factories-even though higher wages make China's factories less competitive. This policy is based on a calculation that those citizens happy with their higher wages will far outnumber those unhappy and unemployed because rising wages forced uncompetitive factories to close. American companies should no longer assume that the government will welcome low-wage manufacturing with open arms.

中国政府正在鼓励提高工人工资──甚至对外资企业里工会式的劳工行动也格外宽容，哪怕工资水平提高会降低中国工厂的竞争力。该政策基于这样一种判断，即因为工资上涨而感到满意的人，其数量要远远超过因工资不断上涨迫使没有竞争力的工厂关门而失去工作或感到不满的人。美国企业不应再想当然地认为，中国政府将继续张开双臂欢迎低工资的制造业企业。

The corollary to China's prioritization of its citizens' contentment is that China is going to get tougher on foreigners, just as it (and nearly every other country) has always done when times are tough. Everything foreign businesses do will be under heightened scrutiny, both from the government and from the public.

中国政府把提高民众满意度放在首位的必然后果是，中国对外国人将变得苛刻，这是中国（以及几乎所有其他国家）在经济艰难时期的一贯做法。外资企业做的每一件事都会受到来自政府和公众的更多审视。

New immigration rules and visa requirements are one consequence of this protectionist attitude. A few months ago, a foreign male was caught on video assaulting a female Chinese citizen. China's Internet was quickly abuzz and within weeks, the government enacted new immigration laws and very publicly announced that it would be cracking down on illegal foreigners-a step that will hit any foreign company that has been posting employees to China without dotting every 'i' and crossing every 't' in the visa paperwork. If China's economy had been zooming along at 10% growth, this incident would have blown over within a few days with no lasting impact. Not anymore.

新的移民和签证规定是这种保护主义态度造成的另一个后果。几个月之前，一名外籍男子猥亵一名中国女性的视频在中国的互联网引起了轩然大波，几周之内，政府颁布了新的移民法律，并高调公开宣布将打击“三非”外国人──这一措施将会使那些外籍员工的来华签证文件上存在疏漏的外国公司受到影响。如果中国经济以每年10%左右的速度高歌猛进，这种事在几天之内就会风平浪静，不会产生任何长期的影响。不过今非昔比，这样的日子不会再有了。

Chinese authorities also are throwing new roadblocks in the way of foreigners seeking to form businesses in China. Such higher standards are not uniformly applied. Beijing and local governments are ever more eager to distinguish between 'contributing' and 'non-contributing' foreigners. Thus, it has never been easier for well-funded, non-polluting foreign companies to secure approval to operate in China. Conversely, it has never been tougher for foreign companies that pollute, pay low wages, or have no plans to hire Chinese employees to get their foot in the door.

中国政府还在为寻求在中国开办业务的外国人设置新的障碍。这些更高的要求并非针对所有外国企业。中央和地方政府比以往更加热衷于区分“有贡献的外国人”和“没有贡献的外国人”。因此资金状况良好、不会造成环境污染的外国公司从未像现在这样容易获准在中国从事经营。相反，那些污染环境、工资低或是不打算雇佣中国员工的外国公司，其进入中国的难度现在比以往任何时候都大。

China's slowdown also is changing Chinese company decisions regarding their interactions with foreign companies. Many Chinese companies are doing just fine. But exporters, particularly those that compete with companies from lower-wage countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, are suffering greatly. China's very low-tech, very low-wage industries such as textiles, clothing, shoes and low-end electronics and toys are not doing well.

中国经济减速也在改变中国企业与外国公司打交道时的决策。很多中国企业的经营状况还行，但出口企业的日子很不好过，尤其是那些与来自越南、孟加拉国等劳动力成本较低的国家的企业竞争的出口企业。中国科技含量很低、劳动力成本很低的行业状况不好，如纺织、服装、鞋类、低端电子产品和玩具等。

Foreign companies that do business with Chinese companies in these industries must be on their guard. Hardly a week goes by without my law firm getting a call from a Western company experiencing problems with a Chinese company in one of these industries. Sometimes the Western company has paid for product and the company it paid no longer exists. Sometimes the company still exists but it needs 'more money' from the Western company to buy raw materials for the product it already promised to produce. Smaller Chinese companies are having a tough time securing necessary financing.

同上述行业的中资企业做生意的外国公司必须提高警惕。几乎每周我所在的律所都会接到西方企业的电话，讲述它们在同上述行业的中资企业打交道时遇到的种种问题。有时一家西方企业已经为所订购产品付了款，但收到货款的中资企业却不存在了；有时收到货款的中资企业没有消失，但它需要西方企业支付“更多款项”去采购其已经承诺生产的产品所需的原材料。眼下，中国中小企业难以获得必要的资金。

Foreign managers need to understand what is happening in their own industries within China and act accordingly. This might involve something as simple as going to China and looking around your Chinese co-party's factory, warehouse or office to look for warning signs of a company in distress. Or it might involve taking out insurance to cover your China business or transaction. A number of Chinese manufacturers are owned by Taiwanese, Singaporean or Hong Kong companies and sometimes it is possible to secure guarantees from the foreign parent.

外国企业的管理人员需要了解其所处行业在中国国内的情况，并采取相应的行动。有时候，只需要一些很简单的做法就能达到这一目的，比如到中国去参观一下中方合作伙伴的工厂、仓库或办公室，看一看对方是否存在经营困难的迹象；或者可以考虑购买保险为中国业务或相关交易提供保障。中国很多制造类企业由台湾、新加坡或香港公司所有，有时还可以从这些企业的母公司获得担保。

The key is to be proactive because if you find yourself in a bad situation with a Chinese company going under, there usually is no remedy after the fact. Bankruptcy in China more often than not consists of a company shutting down in the middle of the night and its owner fleeing to another town.

最关键的一点是要防患于未然，因为一旦你发现自己身处中方合作伙伴破产的糟糕状况中，通常没有什么事后救济渠道。在中国的大多数情况是，破产企业会在半夜关门，业主会逃到其他地方。

The key to weathering China's slow-down will be for foreign companies to go back to basics: think afresh about what a company contributes to China's economy and how that is likely to shape policy makers' opinions; focus on scrupulous regulatory compliance; and a renewed focus on due diligence at a company-to-company level. Above all, no Western company doing business in China should blithely assume that a slow-down won't affect it.

对于外国企业来说，平安度过中国经济放缓时期的关键是做好一些最基本的事情：重新评估一家企业对中国经济的贡献点，以及这可能如何影响决策者的看法；注重严谨的监管合规要求；重新重视公司对公司层面的尽职调查。当然最重要的是，在中国开展业务的任何一家西方企业都不应该轻率地认为，中国经济放缓不会对自己构成影响。