中国经济放缓 澳洲矿业好运气到头

It has enjoyed 23 years of economic growth on the back of a China-inspired commodity boom. But Australia’s luck may be running out, as a cooling Chinese economy prompts a fall in prices of its key exports and job cuts across the resources sector.

背靠中国引发的大宗商品热，澳大利亚享受了23年的经济增长。但澳大利亚的好运气可能快到头了。中国经济放缓，已导致澳大利亚关键出口商品价格下跌、资源行业裁员。

On Tuesday, BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), the country’s biggest coal miner, became the latest company to react to softening demand for resources from China, axing 700 jobs – 7 per cent of the joint venture’s total workforce – and warning of further cost cuts.

周二，澳大利亚最大煤矿企业——必和必拓三菱联合公司(BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance, BMA)成为又一家对中国资源需求放缓做出反应的公司。该公司裁员700人，占员工总数的7%，并警告将进一步削减成本。

“We want to ensure that BMA continues to operate viably, providing ongoing employment in the local region,” says Lucas Dow, BMA asset president.

BMA资产总裁卢卡斯•道(Lucas Dow)表示：“我们希望确保BMA继续运营下去，为当地继续创造就业。”

Australia’s mining employment fell by 25,000 to 212,200 in the three months to the end of August, underlining the challenges facing the industry and an economy in transition that needs to generate growth from other sectors.

在截至今年8月底的3个月里，澳大利亚矿业的就业人数减少2.5万人，至21.22万人，这突显出该行业面临的挑战，而该国经济也急需通过其它行业实现增长。

China’s appetite for iron ore and coal drove a decade-long mining boom in Australia with companies investing almost A$400bn on projects between 2003-2012.

中国对铁矿石和煤炭的兴趣推动了澳大利亚长达10年的矿业热潮。2003年至2012年，该国企业在矿产项目上投资高达近4000亿澳元。

During this period, mining’s share of national output doubled as Beijing’s share of resource exports jumped from 8 per cent in 2002-03 to 52 per cent in 2012-13.

期间，矿业占该国产出的比例翻了一番，同时中国占澳大利亚资源出口的比例从2002年至2003年的8%升至2012年至2013年的52%。

But a combination of a slower Chinese growth and a ramp up in global supply of iron ore and coal has caused commodity prices to drop. This week, iron ore fell below US$80 for the first time in five years, alarming investors and prompting a sell of in the Australian dollar and the local stock market.

然而，中国增速放缓以及全球铁矿石和煤炭供应过剩，导致大宗商品价格下跌。本周，铁矿石价格跌破80美元，为5年来首次，这令投资者感到恐慌，并导致澳元汇率以及澳大利亚股市下挫。

“The downturn in iron ore prices has an inevitable flow on impact on mining services, construction investment and the wider economy,” says Chris Richardson, economist at Deloitte Access Economics.

德勤经济(Deloitte Access Economics)经济学家克里斯•理查森(Chris Richardson)表示：“铁矿石价格下跌不可避免地影响到了矿业服务、建设投资以及更广泛的经济。”

The reddish brown ore – a key ingredient in steel – accounts for A$1 in every A$5 of Australia’s export income. Mr Richardson estimates a US$1 fall in iron ore price could cause national income to drop by A$700m and the annual tax take to be reduced by A$250m.

澳大利亚每5澳元的出口，就有1澳元来自铁矿石。理查森估计，铁矿石价格每下跌1美元，可能会导致澳大利亚国民收入减少7亿澳元，年度税收将减少2.5亿澳元。

The impact will be felt hardest in Western Australia, where the Pilbara region produces most of the iron ore shipped abroad and the state government assumed prices would average $122 through 2014.

西澳大利亚地区受到的影响将最为严重，在这里，皮尔巴拉地区的铁矿石产量占澳大利亚海外输出总量的大部分，而该州政府曾认为，今年铁矿石平均价格将达到122美元。

Last month, Moody’s downgraded Western Australia’s credit rating to Aa1, saying it faced a A$1bn hit to its budget with iron ore prices falling below A$90.

上月，穆迪(Moody’s)将西澳大利亚政府债务评级下调至Aa1，表示由于铁矿石价格跌破90澳元，该地区预算将损失10亿澳元。

The federal budget, which is in deficit to the tune of A$49bn, could also face further headwinds if commodity prices do not recover.

如果大宗商品价格不出现反弹，澳大利亚联邦预算可能也会受到进一步影响，目前该国联邦预算赤字高达490亿澳元。

This week Roubini Global Economics predicted a slowdown in China and a tough federal budget could cut Australia’s growth to 2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2015, down from about 3 per cent. It says that this could prompt interest rate cuts and a 20 per cent slide in the value of the Australian dollar.

本周，鲁比尼全球经济研究机构(Roubini Global Economics)预测，中国经济放缓以及严峻的联邦预算，可能会令澳大利亚明年的国内生产总值(GDP)增速下滑至2%，低于目前的约3%。该机构称，这可能会促使澳大利亚降息并导致澳元币值下滑20%。

Most economists say such fears are overblown and point to a weakening dollar as a shock absorber that will aid the resources companies and other industries.

多数经济学家表示，这些担忧有些夸张，他们认为美元走软将缓解不利影响。美元下跌将有利于资源企业和其他行业。

“One of the key benefits of a flexible Australian dollar exchange rate is that it assists in cushioning the domestic economy from the shocks resulting from rapid shifts in external demand and income conditions,” says Richard Gibbs, chief economist at Macquarie.

麦格理(Macquarie)首席经济学家理查德•吉布斯(Richard Gibbs)表示：“灵活的澳元汇率机制的一个重要好处，就在于它有助于减弱各种冲击对澳大利亚国内经济的影响，这些冲击来自外部需求和收入情况的迅速变化。”

Companies that derive more than half their earnings overseas will benefit from higher earnings, while the country’s commodity exports will become more cost competitive, enabling resource companies to increase market share, he says.

他表示，超过半数收益来自海外的澳大利亚企业将获益，同时澳大利亚的大宗商品出口将变得更具成本效率，资源企业得以扩大市场份额。

what the Australian economy needs is diversified growth in construction, tourism and agriculture to pick up. Joe Hockey, Australia’s treasurer, says that economic reforms are crucial to increasing competitiveness, but suggests that the medium to long term outlook for the country is bright.

澳大利亚经济需要加快建筑、旅游和农业的多元化增长。澳大利亚财长乔•霍基((Joe Hockey)表示，经济改革对于提高竞争力至关重要，但他表示，该国的中长期前景是光明的。