世行研究表明 埃博拉将重创西非经济

Concerns grew over the potential economic impact of the Ebola outbreak in west Africa after the World Bank warned that the region faced a $32.6bn economic hit if the disease were not contained.

世界银行(World Bank)警告，如果埃博拉疫情得不到遏制，爆发疫情的西非地区将面临326亿美元的经济代价冲击，这加剧了人们对疫情潜在经济影响的关注。

This was the grimmest estimate yet of the economic cost of an outbreak that has left 3,400 people dead in west Africa and this week saw a nurse in Madrid catch the virus, the first case to originate outside Africa.

对于埃博拉带来的经济代价，这是迄今最严峻的估测。这场疫情已造成西非地区3400人死亡，本周马德里的一名护士感染了埃博拉病毒，成为首个在非洲以外感染的病例。

The warning came as doctors in Texas said a 42-year-old man who contracted Ebola in Liberia last month died at a Dallas hospital. In Spain, Mariano Rajoy, prime minister, appealed for calm after another nurse who was in contact with Ebola patients at a hospital in Madrid became the sixth person to be held under close medical surveillance there.

世行发出警告的同时，德克萨斯州的医生宣布一名上月在利比里亚感染了埃博拉病毒的42岁男子在达拉斯的医院死亡。在西班牙，另一名曾在马德里的医院接触过埃博拉病患的护士成为第6名接受严密医学监控的人，西班牙首相马里亚诺•拉霍伊(Mariano Rajoy)呼吁人们保持冷静。

US officials plan to increase health screenings of passengers from west Africa and investors are concerned at the potential for a broader travel impact as people choose to stay at home rather than expose themselves to the risk of infection.

美国官员计划加强对来自西非的旅客的健康筛查。投资者担心，随着人们选择待在家里，而不是将自己暴露于受感染的风险，可能给旅游业带来整体冲击。

According to the World Bank’s estimates in a “Low Ebola” scenario, which would see the outbreak contained to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone by the end of this year, the impact on gross domestic product would amount to $3.8bn by the end of 2015.

根据世行的预估，在“低危埃博拉”情景下，埃博拉疫情将在今年底被控制在几内亚、利比里亚和塞拉利昂以内，到2015年底，疫情对国内生产总值(GDP)的影响将达到38亿美元。

Under a “High Ebola” scenario, in which the outbreak spreads to neighbouring countries, the region’s economy would lose $7.4bn this year and a further $25.2bn in 2015, or the equivalent of 3.3 per cent of regional gross domestic product. Despite the dire forecasts, the IMF still believes Sierra Leone will this year and next be one of the world’s top-10 fastest growing economies.

而在“高危埃博拉”的情景下，疫情将扩散到邻近国家，该地区的经济将在今年内损失74亿美元，并在2015年再损失252亿美元，相当于该地区GDP的3.3%。尽管世行作出可怕的前景预测，但国际货币基金组织(IMF)仍认为，塞拉利昂在今年和明年都将是世界上增长最快的10个经济体之一。