中国银行业加大对房地产放贷力度

Chinese banks have been ramping up lending to developers in recent months, even as falling sales and weaker prices ratchet up the risk of these loans souring.

近几个月来，中国银行业一直加大对开发商的放贷力度，而房地产销售额下降和价格疲软，增加了这些贷款成为坏账的风险。

New home prices in China fell 0.9 per cent in July from June, government data showed on Monday, the third straight monthly drop. Sales volume and construction activity have also slowed as potential buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of expected further price declines.

周一公布的政府数据显示，今年7月，新房均价环比下降0.9%，为连续第三个月下降。销售和建筑活动也已放缓，因为潜在买家预期房价进一步下降，而采取了观望态度。

Yet despite this weakness banks, under pressure from the government to prop up the property market, lifted lending to residential real estate developers by 26.9 per cent year-on-year in the first six months of 2014 to Rmb3.1tn. That is a marked increase over the 19.3 per cent year-on-year pace of growth in the first quarter, according to the central bank’s latest monetary policy report.

不过，尽管房地产市场这么疲软，但在政府的托市压力下，今年上半年银行对住宅地产开发商的贷款同比增长了26.9%，增至3.1万亿元人民币。根据中国央行最近的货币政策报告，跟第一季度19.3%的同比涨幅相比，上半年同比涨幅非常显著。

Nearly half of the increase went to affordable housing. That leaves banks exposed to highly indebted local governments, who finance such projects largely through off-budget financing vehicles.

在增加贷款中，接近一半流向了保障房项目。债台高筑的地方政府将银行置于险境，地方政府主要通过预算外融资工具为此类项目提供资金。

Many of these loans in the first half flowed through China Development Bank, a non-commercial lender dedicated to financing projects in support of government policy.

今年上半年，这些贷款的大部分是通过政策性银行——国家开发银行(CDB)——发放的。

Overall property-related lending, which includes personal mortgages, reached Rmb16.2tn by end-June, equal to 20.8 per cent of all local-currency loans, up from 20.6 per cent at end-March.

截至6月底，包括个人抵押贷款在内的房地产相关贷款总量达到16.2万亿元人民币，高于3月末的20.6%，占到人民币贷款总量的20.8%。

Analysts say the increase reflects government efforts to blunt the impact of the slowdown and prevent bankruptcies among developers, whose cash flow is suffering along with the reduction in housing sales.

分析师表示，贷款增加表明政府努力缓解房地产市场放缓的冲击，并防止开发商破产。房屋销量的减少导致开发商的现金流难以维系。

“The real-estate sector overall is sliding downward, but growth stabilisation policies have remained in effect,” said Peng Zhenwei, economist with CEBM Group, a Shanghai-based macro-economic research firm.

“房地产行业总体上在下滑，但稳增长政策仍在发挥效果，”上海宏观经济研究公司莫尼塔(CEBM Group)经济学家彭振威表示。

“The central bank has continuously used ‘window guidance’ to stimulate credit issuance to property. I expect [real estate-linked] credit will further increase in the third quarter.”

“中国央行接二连三地使用‘窗口指导’，刺激向房地产行业发放贷款。我预计，第3季度（房地产相关）信贷将进一步增加。”

Over the weekend, rumours circulated in local media that China Construction Bank, the country’s second-largest lender, may relax mortgage-lending restrictions at its Shanghai branches, presumably with the approval of local authorities. That would make Shanghai the first of China’s top-tier cities to relax purchase restrictions.

上周末，国内媒体纷纷传言中国第二大银行——中国建设银行(CCB)的上海分支机构可能要放松抵押贷款限制，并可能已获得了当地政府的批准。若属实，上海或将由此成为中国首个放松限购的一线城市。

China Construction Bank did not answer calls seeking comment.

记者致电中国建设银行请求置评，电话无人接听。