中国加大清理银行坏账力度

Beijing has stepped up its battle against bad debt in China’s banking system, with a state-led debt-for-equity scheme surging in value by about $100bn in the past two months alone.

北京方面加大了清理中国银行体系中坏账的力度，国家主导的一个债转股计划的价值仅在过去两个月就飙升大约1000亿美元。

The government-led programme, which forces banks to write off bad debt in exchange for equity in ailing companies, soared in value to hit more than $220bn by the end of April, up from about $120bn at the start of March, according to data from Wind Information.

这一政府主导的计划迫使银行注销坏账，以换取困境企业的股权。万得资讯(Wind Information)数据显示，该计划的价值从3月初的大约1200亿美元飙升至4月底的2200多亿美元。

Industry watchers have fiercely debated how far Beijing will go to recapitalise the financial system, with bad loans taking up an ever higher percentage of banks’ balance sheets — as much as 19 per cent by some estimates. The latest figures for the debt-to-equity swap, and a debt-to-bonds swap initiated last year, show a subtle bailout is already under way.

对于北京方面将付出多大努力对金融体系进行资本重组，行业观察人士展开了激烈辩论。目前不良贷款占中国各银行资产的百分比越来越高——有人估计高达19%。债转股的最新数据，以及去年启动的债务转债券，都显示一场低调纾困行动正在进行中。

“One can argue the government-led recapitalisation is already happening in an atypical way and thus reducing the need for recapitalisation in its written sense,” said Liao Qiang, director of financial institutions at S&P Global Ratings in Beijing.

“人们可以说，政府主导的资本重组已经在以一种非典型的方式发生，从而减少对字面意义上的资本重组的需要，”标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)常驻北京的金融机构总监廖强表示。

Chinese media reported that up to Rmb4tn ($612bn) had been approved in 2015 for the debt-to-bonds swap, which has seen state-controlled banks trade short-term loans to companies connected to local governments in exchange for bonds with much longer maturities.

据中国媒体报道，2015年已经批准了高达4万亿元人民币（合6120亿美元）债务转债券，这种操作意味着，国有控股的银行把发放给地方政府关联企业的短期贷款，置换成期限长得多的债券。

That programme has been hailed a success in that it relieved the pressure on local governments that were forced to take out bank loans to proceed with public works projects in the absence of municipal bond markets.

该计划被誉为一项成功，因为它化解了地方政府受到的压力；前些年地方政府在没有市政债券市场的情况下，被迫用银行贷款推进公共工程项目。

The debt-to-equity project has received far less enthusiasm from analysts, who say that coercing banks to become stakeholders in companies that could not pay back loans will further weigh down profits this year. Instead of underpinning stability at banks, Mr Liao says the efforts undermine it.

分析师们迄今对债转股计划远远没有那么热情，他们表示，胁迫银行成为那些无力偿还贷款的企业的利益相关者，将在今年进一步拖累利润。廖强称，债转股非但没有支撑银行的稳定性，反而削弱了银行的稳定。

The programmes are just two fronts in Beijing’s battle against bad debt.

这些计划只是北京方面应对坏账的两条战线。

The state-controlled asset management companies that bailed out the country’s four national commercial banks 15 years ago have become increasingly active over the past two years in buying up portfolios of bad debt. Regional asset managers run by provincial governments are doing the same business on a local level.

15年前曾经纾困中国四大国有商业银行的国有控股的资产管理公司，过去两年在购买坏账组合方面日趋活跃。由省级政府运营的地方资产管理公司在地方一级开展着同样的业务。

The government is also reopening the market for securitising bad debt with two deals worth Rmb534m due this month. The efforts have even gone online, with debt managers hawking off bad loans on China’s biggest online retail site.

政府还重启了不良贷款证券化市场，本月的两笔交易价值5.34亿元人民币。这些努力甚至上了网，债务管理公司在中国最大的在线零售网站兜售不良贷款。

The average rate of non-performing loans at China’s commercial banks hit an official 1.75 per cent at the end of March, according to the banking regulator. That marks the 11th straight quarter that the government-approved figures have risen.

根据银行业监管机构的数据，中国各商业银行的平均不良贷款率官方数字在3月底达到1.75%。这标志着这些政府批准的数字连续第11个季度上涨。

But the official data does not include a much larger stockpile of so-called zombie loans that some analysts say could in future require a more formal bailout for the banks.

但官方数据不包括所谓的僵尸贷款；一些分析师表示，规模大得多的僵尸贷款存量意味着，未来可能需要对银行进行一场更为正式的纾困。

Francis Cheung, analyst at CLSA, estimates that bad debt accounted for 15-19 per cent of banks’ loan books at the end of last year and that the government may have to add Rmb10.6tn of new capital to the banking system, or 15.6 per cent of gross domestic product.

里昂证券(CLSA)分析师郑名凯(Francis Cheung)估计，截至去年底，坏账占中国各银行贷款账簿的15%至19%，政府可能不得不向银行体系注入10.6万亿元人民币的新资本，相当于15.6%的国内生产总值(GDP)。

David Mann, Standard Chartered’s chief Asia economist, has noted that the problem has been exacerbated by “shadow financing”, an all-encompassing term for banks’ off balance-sheet lending that skirts regulations. However, Mr Mann argued in a recent report that the many programmes China has deployed to fight bad debt would reduce the need for a direct bailout of the system.

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)亚洲区首席经济学家马德威(David Mann)指出，“影子金融”（泛指规避监管的银行表外放贷）加剧了这个问题。不过，马德威在最近一份报告中提出，中国为了清理坏账而实施的众多计划，将减少对银行体系进行直接纾困的需要。

Shadow lending hit about Rmb40tn at the end of last year, or about 59 per cent of GDP, according to CLSA. While much of that is not distressed, its opacity makes it difficult to assess its risk or to regulate it.

据里昂证券估计，中国的影子贷款总额在去年底达到大约40万亿元人民币，为GDP的59%左右。尽管其中有很大一部分并非不良贷款，但其不透明性意味着很难评估其风险，或对其进行监管。