石油需求下降暗示全球增长放缓

Wondering where global growth is headed this year? It might help to keep an eye on today's oil prices.

想要知道今年的全球增长情况吗？关注一下当前的油价或许能有所帮助。

A sharp drop in global oil demand that began in May was a 'leading indicator' of slowing global growth, as the latest round of gross domestic product data from Europe and Japan have confirmed, says London consulting firm Energy Aspects.

伦敦咨询公司Energy Aspects称，自5月份开始全球石油需求大幅下滑是全球增长放缓的“先行指标”，而欧洲和日本公布的最新国内生产总值(GDP)数据也证实了这一点。

The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, is down 12% from its mid-June peak, the result of tepid demand from European and Asian refineries as well as a perception of reduced geopolitical risk. While prices trawl 14-month lows near $101 a barrel, they are still too high to lure more demand from drivers and other consumers, Energy Aspects says.

由于欧洲和亚洲炼油厂需求疲软，加上市场感觉地缘政治风险在下降，作为全球油价基准的布伦特原油价格已较6月中旬高位下跌了12%。Energy Aspects表示，虽然布伦特原油价格已跌至每桶101美元左右的14个月低点，但仍不足以激发驾车者和其他消费者的更多需求。

'Overall weakness in global oil prices signal that demand has not really picked up' yet, the firm says. 'This raises the question of whether the global economy and stock markets are due for a lurch downwards' later this year.

Energy Aspects称，全球油价的整体疲软态势表明需求尚未真正回升，这令人怀疑全球经济和股市是否会在今年晚些时候突然下行。

The Brent futures market points to sluggish demand. In July, the futures market for global benchmark Brent crude flipped out of backwardation -- when the front-month contract is more expensive that contracts for delivery in later months. Brent is now in contango, meaning that the front-month October contract is cheaper than contracts for later this year and next.

布伦特原油期货市场状况显示出需求低迷。7月份，作为全球油价基准的布伦特原油期货价格脱离了倒价结构。所谓倒价结构，是指近月合约的期货价格高于远月合约的价格。目前布伦特原油期货价格处于顺价结构，十月份交割的期货价格低于今年底和明年交割的期货价格。

Contango indicates that traders are buying near-term supplies at a discount because there are enough barrels to go around.

顺价表明交易员们正在以低价买进短期合约，因为原油供应充足。

On Monday, Oman crude oil on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange flipped to contango as well. While Brent is most reflective of the European market, the contango in Oman suggests that the Asian market is also well-supplied.

周一，迪拜商品交易所交易的阿曼原油期货合约也出现顺价。布伦特原油是欧洲原油市场走势的风向标，而阿曼原油期货出现顺价则表明亚洲市场供应也很充足。

The link between global growth and oil prices does carry some caveats, of course. A geopolitical crisis that threatens oil production from Iraq, Russia or elsewhere could send prices soaring again. And oil demand typically falls in the late summer and early fall as refiners perform seasonal maintenance, so stronger global growth might not show up in oil prices right away.

当然，把全球经济增长和油价联系在一起确实需要注意一些问题。威胁到伊拉克、俄罗斯和其他地区原油产量的地缘政治危机可能推动油价再度飙升。由于炼油厂会在夏末秋初之际进行季节性维护，在此期间石油需求一般会出现下跌，因此全球经济增长加速的影响可能不会马上在油价中体现出来。

Still, Energy Aspects says, demand for gasoline, diesel and other oil products could be an important indicator in the second half of the year.

但是Energy Aspects表示，对汽油、柴油和其他成品油的需求可能是显示下半年经济增长的重要指标。

'We are definitely not suggesting that the oil market is pointing towards a severe global recession, but [oil markets] may be telling us something about the state of the world economy which economic forecasts are currently not capturing,' the firm says.

该公司表示，虽然不能确定无疑地说油市走势表明全球经济出现了严重衰退，但也可能从中窥探出经济预期中尚未反映出的全球经济形势的一些情况。