中国增长放缓可能拖累香港楼市
The views it offers across Hong Kong's famous harbour are stunning but it is the price tag attached to the city's newest luxury apartment block that is creating the bigger stir.
从Opus公寓向外可以看到香港著名的海港，景色令人惊叹，但引起最大震撼的是这幢香港最新豪华公寓楼贴着的价签。Each of the 12 Frank Gehry-designed apartments in the Opus development is expected to be priced by developer Swire Properties at more than HK$450m ($58m), a record even in a city where the average home price was the highest in the world last year.
Opus的12套公寓都出自弗兰克•盖里(Frank Gehry)的设计。开发商太古地产(Swire Properties)对每套公寓的定价预计将超过4.5亿港元（合5800万美元），即便在去年平均房价位居全球之首的香港，这个价位仍然创下纪录。At an estimated $9,000 per square foot, Opus aspires to be in the same league as ultra-luxury developments in London and Manhattan such as One Hyde Park and 15 Central Park West.
Opus公寓每平方英尺大约售价9000美元，有望加入伦敦和纽约超豪华公寓的阵营，比如伦敦的海德公园一号(One Hyde Park)和纽约的中央公园西路15楼盘(15 Central Park West)。
But these are inauspicious times to test the limits of Hong Kong's luxury property market which for several years has relied on demand from mainland Chinese. According to property agents there have been far fewer mainland Chinese buyers in Hong Kong since the start of the year.
不过，目前的时机对于检验香港豪华地产市场的极限来说不太有利，这个市场几年来一直依仗的是中国内地富人的需求。房地产经纪人表示，今年年初以来，中国内地来港购房的买家比以往少多了。A worse-than-expected slowdown on the Chinese mainland, coupled with the fallout from the eurozone crisis, means that most analysts are predicting prices will start to fall in the second half of the year. The city's incoming chief executive has also vowed to increase the supply of mass-market housing, which is expected to push down prices after rising 80 per cent since 2009.
由于中国内地增长放缓程度超过预期，加上欧元区危机也带来不良后果，所以大多数分析师都预测，房价将在今年下半年开始回落。香港即将上任的新特首也誓言增加大众化市场住房的供应，人们期待此举将把2009年以来涨幅达80%的房价降下来。"We hear a lot of people saying that only prices in the mass market will come down because of the supply issue. But you cannot decouple the luxury end from the rest of the market. How much a first-time buyer pays will affect a chain of three to four other [more upmarket] transactions," says Andrew Lawrence, head of Hong Kong property research at Barclays Capital.
巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)香港房地产研究主管安德鲁•劳伦斯(Andrew Lawrence)表示："我们听到许多人在说，由于供应问题，只有大众化市场的房价才会下跌。但你无法将高端楼市和整个房地产市场的其他部分割裂开来。第一位买主会付多高的价格，将影响到其他一连串三四起（高端）房地产交易的价格。"Beijing's 2008 $4tn stimulus package unleashed the first big wave of mainland property investors looking for big-ticket items to park their assets.
中国政府在2008年推出了4万亿元人民币刺激计划，引发了内地房地产投资者购入高价房产来配置资产的第一波狂潮。The following year, 50 to 60 per cent of new luxury properties were bought by mainland Chinese investors, says Ricky Poon, executive director of residential sales at Colliers. In 2009, average prices for luxury apartments rose 45 per cent from 2008, compared with a 27 per cent rise in mass-market properties.
高力国际(Colliers)住宅销售行政董事潘伟基(Ricky Poon)表示，在接下来的2009年，香港50%至60%新上市的豪华房产都被中国内地的投资客买走。2009年，豪华住宅的均价较2008年上涨45%，而大众化市场均价涨幅为27%。While the government provides no official figures, anecdotes abound of mainland billionaires paying cash for multiple units in new luxury apartment blocks near Kowloon Station – a popular area for those who shuttle frequently across the border.
尽管政府没有提供官方数据，但坊间充斥着内地亿万富豪用现金购买九龙站(Kowloon Station)附近多套豪华住宅的传闻。对于那些频繁往返内地和香港之间的人而言，九龙站是个非常受欢迎的地段。But that has changed since the beginning of the year, when a combination of a credit crunch in the mainland and a sharp fall-off in demand for Chinese exports has seen their participation in the new-build luxury market plunge to about 30 per cent, says Mr Poon.
但潘伟基表示，今年年初以来，市场形势就已发生变化。中国内地发生了信贷紧缩，而出口需求也大幅下滑，导致内地购买者在新建豪华住宅市场中所占比例跌至30%左右。That is in line with a slowdown in other sectors highly dependent on the disposable income of China's wealthiest: revenue growth in Macau casinos has fallen to just 7 per cent in May compared with a 42 per cent full-year growth in 2011, while luxury spending in Hong Kong and China is also seeing slower growth.
与此相吻合的是，其他对中国内地最富有人群可支配收入高度依赖的行业都出现了放缓：今年5月份，澳门赌场营收增幅已降至区区7%，而2011年全年增幅为42%；同时，香港和中国内地在奢侈品上的支出也在放缓。Mainland buyers are also venturing further afield for bargains. A recent report found that purchases by non-local Chinese of luxury properties in New York had risen 88 per cent from 2010 and accounted for $9bn of sales in the year to March.
中国内地买家也去到更远的地方购买房产。最近发布的一份报告显示，非当地华人购买的纽约豪华住宅较2010年上升88%，在截至今年3月的一年内其购买金额达90亿美元。Mr Lawrence, among the most bearish analysts on Hong Kong property prices, fears there could be as much as a 30 per cent fall in prices across all sectors by 2013. But he estimates that prices in the luxury housing market will slip only 10-15 per cent at the most.
劳伦斯属于最不看好香港房地产价格的分析师之一。他担心，到2013年，整个房地产市场的价格将出现高达30%的下跌。但劳伦斯估计，豪宅市场最多只会下跌10%至15%。Sales representatives of Swire Properties deny that the design of the Opus show flat – plenty of chandeliers and a kitchen featuring lots of silver – is meant to appeal to the flamboyant tastes of nouveau riche mainland Chinese buyers.
太古地产的销售代表否认Opus公寓样板间的设计是为了迎合中国内地新贵喜欢浮华的品位。样板间装了许多枝形吊灯，厨房则处处银光闪闪。But the fate of Opus – which has units for sale and for rent – is still likely to lie in the hands of investors from north of the border. "Here, you are talking about the ultra-luxury end of the market and only mainland Chinese billionaires who have done an IPO of their own companies are likely to pay for these," says Mr Lawrence.
不过这座既出售也出租的Opus公寓的命运可能仍掌握在中国内地投资者的手中。劳伦斯说："我们这里说的是超豪华房地产市场，有可能购买的只有那些将自己的企业上市了的内地亿万富翁。"One agent says there is interest in Opus but that it is out of reach for some of his clients. "A mainland client of mine was bowled over by that view. After all, you just don't get a harbour view like that in mainland China. He would pay $38m for it, but no more, so he walked away."
一名经纪人表示，有客户对Opus表示兴趣，但有些没有那个消费能力。"我的一名内地客户对公寓外的景色一见倾心。毕竟，在内地找不到哪栋公寓有这样好的湾景。他的最高出价是3800万美元，一分都不能再加，最终失望离去。"
