短线观点 上调印花税难撼香港楼市泡沫
Heard the one about the parking space sold for $620,000? In Hong Kong, property — even for cars — is an obsession that affects everyone from the richest tycoons to those struggling to get on the ladder in the world’s least affordable market.
听说了一个车位卖62万美元那件事吗？在香港，房地产、甚至连车位都成为了一种执念，影响着每一个人——从最富有的富豪，到那些竭力想在这个世界上房价最难以负担的市场中成为有房一族的人。
So a surprise increase in stamp duty was always going to cause waves, and developers’ shares duly tumbled on Monday.
因此，印花税的突然上调总是会引发市场震荡，地产开发商的股价也在周一应声下挫。
But the chances that the measures will truly burst one of the world’s most stubborn real estate bubbles are slim while US rates remain low and the renminbi is weakening.
不过，在美国利率保持在低位和人民币走弱之际，这类措施真正刺破这个世界上最顽固的房地产泡沫的可能性很小。
There is no doubt that Hong Kong has a problem.
香港无疑面临一个问题。
Prices are 19 times median incomes, according to one global survey that ranked Sydney second least affordable at 12 times.
根据一项全球调查，香港的房价是收入中值的19倍，房价第二难负担的城市是悉尼，为12倍。
Prices in Hong Kong bottomed in March, confounding predictions of an extended slide through the year.
香港的房价在今年3月就触底反弹，让那些预期下跌趋势会贯穿今年全年的人目瞪口呆。
Since March they have risen 13 per cent.
自3月份以来，香港房价已攀升13%。
The government on Friday imposed 15 per cent stamp duty across the board except for resident first-time buyers — tougher than eight previous rounds of taxes and lending restrictions.
上周五，香港政府宣布向首次购房香港居民以外的所有购房者征收15%的印花税，此举比此前八轮税收和贷款限购举措还要严厉。
Non-residents have paid 15 per cent since 2012 but until now, the most residents faced was 8.5 per cent.
自2012年以来，非居民的购房印花税一直是15%，但直到最近，多数居民购房的印花税还只有8.5%。
The levies are likely to hit the value of lower priced homes more.
这次上调给较低价格住房的价值造成的冲击很可能更大一些。
For example, the buyer of a HK$4m ($515,700) property now faces a tripling of duty if it is a second home.
比如，购买一套400万港元（合51.57万美元）房产的买家，如今要缴的税额是以前的三倍（假如这是他购买的第二套住房的话）。
The measures were an immediate blow to the city’s biggest developers, with the likes of Cheung Kong, New World and Sun Hung Kai off about 9 per cent apiece.
此举立刻对香港最大的地产开发商造成冲击，长江(Cheung Kong)、新世界(New World)和新鸿基(Sun Hung Kai)等公司的股价下跌了9%左右。
Their average one-day fall following previous stamp duty changes was just 3.2 per cent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的数据显示，此前几次印花税调整后，这些公司的股价的平均单日跌幅只有3.2%。
Analysts rushed to lower valuations: transaction volumes will certainly fall as they have before in the wake of stamp duty rises.
分析师急忙下调了相应的估值：成交量无疑会像过去那样，在印花税上调后下滑。
Prices may even slide — or at least, stop rising.
房价也许还会进一步下滑，或者至少是停止上涨。
But Hong Kong’s biggest house price problems are out of the city’s hands — namely ultra-low US interest rates and a depreciating renminbi, both of which make the city attractive and lift demand for property.
不过，香港房价的最大问题却不由香港决定——这两个最大的问题就是超低的美国利率和不断贬值的人民币，二者都增强了香港的吸引力，推升了对香港房地产的需求。
Until either of those changes comprehensively, liquidity will continue to be available for mainland buyers keen to hedge their renminbi holdings with dollar-pegged Hong Kong homes.
在这两个问题中的一个得到彻底改变前，对那些急于用同美元挂钩的香港住房来对冲其人民币资产的中国内地买家来说，流动性将依然存在。
