短线观点 令人担忧的中国债市

Stand easy — or easier, at least. Ten basis points might not be the biggest one-day change for borrowing costs in China’s vast $7tn bond markets, but it was enough on Monday to push the country’s closely watched onshore repo rate back from an eight-month high. That offers a little breathing space for investors to ponder what next for the rising tensions in onshore bond markets. One point to look at is their own leverage as well as their fears for companies.

别紧张，或者至少稍微放松一点。在中国规模庞大的7万亿美元的债券市场上，10个基点或许不是借贷成本最大的单日波动，但在本周一，这种波动却足以让中国受到密切关注的在岸回购利率从8个月高点回落。这为投资者提供了少许喘息空间，让他们能够思考日益紧张的在岸债券市场接下来的走势。现在需要考虑的一点是他们自己的杠杆以及他们对企业的担忧。

Bond yields in China have jumped. This month, China’s five-year government bond yields have risen 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent — their worst monthly performance in a year. Defaults by two state-owned groups have raised fears that others could follow suit. All this has added roughly half a percentage point this month alone for high-quality borrowers onshore. Spooked by this, companies have so far suspended plans for an estimated $10bn in expected bond issuance.

中国债券收益率已大幅飙升。本月，中国5年期国债收益率上升25个基点，至2.75%，创出一年来最为糟糕的月度表现。两家国有企业的违约不禁让人们担心接下来可能还会有其他国企违约。所有这些仅在本月就让境内优质借款人额外增加了约半个百分点的成本。受此影响，企业迄今暂停了大约100亿美元的债券发行计划。

Amid all the furore about the pain of rising rates, one so-far overlooked factor is that investors, as well as companies, appear precariously balanced. The market for pledge-style repos — short-term, bond-backed loans — is currently bigger than the stock of outstanding debt, according to Wind Info. A sharp worsening in market sentiment could force those borrowers into fire sales if their loans are called or cannot be rolled over. And the bond fund inflows that followed last summer’s stock market rout are also at risk of reversing. Since China’s bond markets are not as liquid as their size suggests, fund managers facing redemptions could be forced to dump what they can, not what they should.

虽然投资者对利率上升导致成本增加感到愤怒，但一个迄今被忽视的因素是，投资者以及企业似乎随时有可能失去平衡。万得资讯(Wind Info)的数据显示，质押式回购市场（以债券为抵押的短期贷款）当前的规模超过了已发行债券的存量。市场情绪急剧恶化可能会迫使那些借款人在面临贷款被催还或无法展期的情况下贱卖债券。去年夏季股市暴跌之后流入债市的资金也面临流出风险。既然中国债券市场的流动性不像其规模显示的那么大，面临赎回的基金经理可能被迫要抛售他们能够抛得掉的，而不是他们应该抛售的。

This potential for a market rout makes the benchmark seven-day repo rate more important than ever. Considered by many a gauge of official views on the health of the money market, it reached 2.55 per cent on Friday before dropping to 2.45 per cent on Monday. So long as the People’s Bank of China injects enough money to keep the rate roughly in its range between 2.25 and 2.5 per cent, the worst sell-off fears should be kept at bay. But if it moves, and stays, sharply higher leveraged investors will be in for a shock. And given the impact that any Chinese turmoil now has on world markets, that means investors elsewhere too.

这种市场崩盘的风险让基准的7天回购利率变得前所未有的重要。许多人认为从7天回购利率可以看出官方对货币市场健康状况的看法。上周五该利率达到2.55%，随后在本周一回落至2.45%。只要中国央行注入足够的资金，将该利率大致维持在2.25%至2.5%的区间内，就不会出现最糟糕的抛售情形。但是如果该利率超出并保持在该区间之外，杠杆急剧增加的投资者将会受到冲击。鉴于现在中国市场的任何动荡都会对世界市场造成影响，这意味着其他地方的投资者也会遭受冲击。