短线观点 中国股市的明显泡沫

At the start of last year, Chinese stocks were cheap and only 200 were valued highly enough — had they been American — to have qualified for the blue-chip S&P 500 index. Today, Chinese stocks are (very) expensive, and 482 are worth more than the smallest US blue-chip.

去年初，中国股票比较便宜，仅有200支股票的市值高到相当于“蓝筹”的标普500指数(S&P 500 index)成份股的程度。时至今日，中国的股票已很贵，有482支股票的市值超过了市值最低的美国蓝筹股。

Among them is Beijing Baofeng Technology, which has produced perhaps the wackiest share price performance in history. In 33 trading days since its float in Shenzhen, it has risen by the daily maximum on 32 of them, for a 2,827 per cent gain on no news.

北京暴风科技(Beijing Baofeng Technology)就是其中的一员。暴风科技的股价表现或许是史上最为疯狂的。在深圳证交所上市后的33个交易日中，这支股票有32天涨停，在没有任何消息面因素刺激的情况下上涨了2827%。

In the process, Baofeng has gone from a sub-$200m small cap to a valuation of more than $4bn, equivalent to America’s 494th-placed company and almost as large as US Steel. It makes a video player, and, at least last year, not much money: it is valued at 494 times last year’s earnings.

在此过程中，暴风科技从一支市值不到2亿美元的低市值股变成了一支市值逾40亿美元的股票，几乎与美国钢铁公司(US Steel)的市值一样大，如果在美国的话可算作市值第494大的公司。暴风科技的产品是一款视频播放器，而且至少在去年，该公司还不怎么赚钱：该公司现在的市值是去年盈利的494倍。

Baofeng is merely the frothiest of what looks increasingly like a “babyccino” market: like the children’s version of a cappuccino, China’s market is still missing the crucial ingredient for the eventual caffeine jolt: profits.

暴风科技只是这个看上去越来越像“宝贝奇诺”（babyccino，给年纪小不宜喝咖啡的孩子喝的起泡奶——译者注）的股市中泡沫最多的一个：就如儿童版的卡布奇诺(cappuccino)一样，中国股市依然缺少最终可带来咖啡因般刺激的关键原料——利润。

The bubbles are particularly extreme in Shenzhen, and in technology: the median tech stock traded in the city is priced at 65 times forward earnings (the median Nasdaq tech stock is at 19 times). There are exceptions. Banks, which make up more of the Shanghai market, are still priced for bad news. Still, Longview Economics calculates that large state-owned enterprises have performed very similarly to large completely private companies in the CSI 300 index over the past year.

深圳股市科技板块的泡沫尤其极端：深市科技股的预期市盈率中值为65倍（纳斯达克(Nasdaq)科技股市盈率中值是19倍）。不过也有例外。作为上海股市主力的银行股，仍受到负面消息的拖累。而Longview Economics的计算显示，过去一年里，沪深300指数成份股里的大型国企与大型民企的股价表现非常类似。

There is some logic amid the fizz. Shenzhen-listed companies’ profits are forecast to grow a little slower than US biotechs, and are priced a little lower.

这种泡沫当中有一定的逻辑。深市上市公司的利润增速预计略低于美国生物科技股，估值也略低一些。

But those who look for logic are probably wasting their time. Following the latest widely-predicted rate cut, one in eight Shenzhen stocks leapt by the 10 per cent daily limit, as did one in 12 of Shanghai’s. Logic was present: tech stocks, with profits in the distant future, benefit most from a lower discount rate, and their shares led the way up.

但那些寻求逻辑的人很可能是在浪费时间。在大多数人预料之中的最新一次降息后，深市八分之一的股票涨停，沪市十二分之一的股票涨停。逻辑如下：虽然科技股实现盈利还很遥远，但它们最受益于贴现率下降，因此它们的股票领涨。

In reality, though, easier money means more leverage for punters, which means higher prices only as long as the froth lasts. As the chart shows, the last bubble lasted a very long time indeed. Sip with care.

但在现实中，资金宽松意味着投机者会加大杠杆，这意味着只要泡沫持续下去，股价就肯定会上涨。如图所示，上一次泡沫确实持续了很长时间。这杯“宝贝奇诺”可以带着小心一小口一小口地喝。