华融董事长,中国坏账市场存在泡沫

Bubbles in credit and real estate have led to a steady flow of bad debt in China for years. But now a bubble is forming in the market for the bad loans themselves, says the chairman of China’s largest state-controlled “bad bank”.

在中国，信贷和房地产领域的泡沫多年来源源不断地带来坏账。但中国最大的国有“坏账银行”的董事长表示，如今中国坏账市场自身正在形成泡沫。

Banks in China are dealing with an onslaught of non-performing loans that have resulted from poor risk controls and years of loose monetary policy. Investors estimate that China’s stock of bad debt has risen to $3tn this year, in step with a decelerating economy. One prominent analyst said recently that the figure could be as high as $6.8tn.

中国各家银行正在应对大量的不良贷款，这些不良贷款是由风险控制不力和多年的宽松货币政策造成的。投资者估计，今年中国不良债务存量已增至3万亿美元，而经济增长则在减速。一位知名分析师最近表示，存量数字有可能高达6.8万亿美元。

As the pool of bad assets rises, so too has the number of Chinese investors willing to chase after bad debt portfolios.

随着不良资产总量的激增，愿意追逐坏账投资组合的中国投资者的数量也在增加。

But many of the newcomers have little experience investing in distressed debt and are pushing up prices for the assets at auctions, said Lai Xiaomin, chairman of China Huarong Asset Management, and a deputy to the 12th National People’s Congress.

然而，十二届全国人大代表、中国华融资产管理股份有限公司(China Huarong Asset Management)董事长赖小民表示，许多新进入者几乎完全没有投资不良债权的经验，他们的行为正在推高拍卖资产的价格。

Inexperienced investors present the risk of creating new losses while also failing to resolve troubled loans, he said.

他表示，缺乏经验的投资者带来了这样的风险：既未能清理问题贷款，还会造成新的损失。

“There is a bubble in the price of bad assets?.?.?.?There are more investors driving up the price through competition,” Mr Lai told the Financial Times. “If you don’t understand the market for bad assets or asset restructuring and merging, for non-professionals there is big risk. Not only will you not make money, you will also lose money.”

“不良资产价格存在泡沫……投资者增多，他们通过竞争推高了价格，”赖小民对英国《金融时报》表示，“如果你不了解不良资产市场或者资产重组和并购，对非专业人士来说，风险很大。你不仅赚不到钱，还要赔钱。”

Over the past three years, competition from new investors had pushed the price up by at least 10 per cent, he said, calling for more regulatory oversight of the market.

他表示，过去三年，新投资者带来的竞争将不良资产价格推升了至少10%。他呼吁对这一市场加强监管。

Some of the overpricing in the market likely came as new funds rushed to get their first deals done, seeking to prove to investors they understood the market, said Benjamin Fanger, managing partner at Guangzhou-based distressed debt investor ShoreVest.

广州的不良债权投资公司新岸资本(ShoreVest Capital Partners)的管理合伙人方杰明(Benjamin Fanger)表示，这个市场上定价偏高的现象，部分可能是新基金急于达成首批交易造成的，这些基金试图向投资者证明自己了解这一市场。

Regulators have loosened controls on the investors that can buy distressed assets, causing a swift increase in the number of buyers.

监管层放松了对有资格购买不良资产的投资者的控制，导致买家数量迅速增加。

“Somewhat under the radar, there has been a significant proliferation in the number of small-to-medium-sized funds chasing these assets,” Jason Bedford, an analyst at UBS wrote in a report earlier this year.

“人们不太注意的是，追逐这些资产的中小型基金大为增多，”瑞银(UBS)分析师贾森?贝德福德(Jason Bedford)在今年早些时候一份报告中写道。

The influx of new buyers was mainly seen in large cities as they attempted to get in on highly publicised auctions, he said. The less obvious and more complicated deals — particularly outside of China’s biggest cities — were often left untouched, he said.

他说，新买家大量涌入主要发生在大城市，因为他们想要参加被广为宣传的拍卖，而那些不太引人注目也更加复杂的交易——尤其是大城市以外的拍卖——往往无人问津。

“In first tier cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, we do see new, inexperienced entrants buying their first NPL portfolios in what seem to be prices that don’t account for the time or risks in workouts,” Mr Fanger said. “Some new investors assume they’ll be able to get full appraised value for underlying collateral and this is a faulty assumption.”

“在上海、深圳和广州等一线城市，我们确实看到一些没经验的新加入者首次买入不良贷款组合，其价格似乎跟相关不良贷款清理所需的时间或所承担的风险不相称，”方杰明说，“有些新投资者自以为能够得到基础抵押品的全部评估价值，这是错误的想法。”

ShoreVest is one of a handful of foreign investors buying distressed debt in China, although the number has increased this year. US-based Lone Star and Bain Capital, as well as Hong Kong’s PAG, started Chinese distressed debt investing over the past year.

ShoreVest是在中国购买不良贷款的少数境外投资机构之一，不过今年境外机构有所增多。过去一年，美国的孤星基金(Lone Star)和贝恩资本(Bain Capital)，以及香港的太盟投资集团(PAG)，都开始投资中国不良债权。

China has experienced steady deregulation in how distressed debt is bought and sold since the industry was launched 18 years ago.

在中国不良资产行业的18年历史中，政府逐步放宽了不良债权买卖方面的监管。

Huarong, along with three other centrally controlled asset managers, was created by the ministry of finance in 1999 to absorb perilously high levels of bad debt from China’s largest commercial banks. At the time, the government directed banks to transfer some $1.4tn to the four groups.

1999年，中国财政部组建了华融等四家由中央政府控制的资产管理公司，以接收中国大型商业银行处于高危水平的坏账。当时，中国政府指示银行把约1.4万亿美元的资产转让给了四大资产管理公司。

Since then the asset managers have greatly expanded their businesses in China and globally, operating more like investment banks than bad debt investors. Huarong went public in Hong Kong in late 2015.

自那以来，这些资产管理公司在中国国内和全球范围内极大地扩大了自身业务，其经营方式更接近投资银行而不是坏账投资机构。2015年下半年，华融在香港成功上市。

Huarong sells about 70 per cent of the distressed assets it buys and attempts to restructure about 30 per cent, according to Mr Lai. This positions the group as a broker of bad debt, which would benefit from having the maximum number of investors.

赖小民表示，华融购买的不良资产中，大约70%会转售，剩余的30%会尝试重组。因此华融可以说是一家坏账经纪机构，投资者越多，对它越有好处。