国际投资者不惧中国股市泡沫

Concerns have resurfaced about a bubble building in China’s stock market, but international investors appear relaxed about the possibility of a correction.

有关中国股市正在形成泡沫的担忧再度浮现，但国际投资者似乎并不担心发生回调的可能性。

Their confidence comes despite explosive growth in China’s mainland stock market, which has more than doubled in size over the past 12 months. The Hong Kong-listed H-shares market has risen by a third over the same period.

他们对中国内地股市抱有信心，尽管该市场呈现爆炸性增长——其规模在过去12个月里扩大了一倍以上。同期，香港上市的H股的市场规模扩大了三分之一。

Vanessa Donegan, head of Asian equities at Columbia Threadneedle, the fund house, admits dangers could be lurking, given the rapid rise in valuations. “The overseas investment community is cognisant there is a bubble building. One has to be quite careful,” she says.

基金公司天利投资(Columbia Threadneedle)亚洲股票主管瓦妮莎•多尼根(Vanessa Donegan)承认，鉴于中国股市估值迅速攀升，该市场可能潜存危险。她说：“海外投资界认识到这里正在形成泡沫。投资者必须非常小心。”

The share price rally has been driven in part by Chinese retail investors turning to the stock market following the clampdown by regulators last year on the domestic wealth-product market. This trend has accelerated due to fears about oversupply in China’s housing market, pushing investors to shift their money elsewhere.

中国股价上涨有一部分是受中国散户投资者的带动，去年监管部门整顿国内理财产品市场后，这些投资者将目光转向了股市。另外，由于担心中国住房市场供应过剩，投资者不得不将资金转向别处，这进一步推动了股市的上涨趋势。

The extension of China’s Stock Connect programme to include the Rmb5tn ($806bn) Chinese mutual fund industry in March has helped funnel more cash into Hong Kong. The programme was introduced last November to allow investors in Hong Kong and Shanghai to trade in each other’s markets, but was initially only open to wealthy retail investors.

今年3月，中国的“沪港通”计划扩大了范围，将5万亿元人民币（合8060亿美元）的中国公募基金涵盖在内，这已帮助将更多资金输运到香港。该计划于去年11月出台，允许香港股市和上海股市的投资者在对方市场上进行交易，但最初只开放给富有的散户投资者。

Ms Donegan says: “Often a rising tide of liquidity can lift all companies, bad and good, and [the share price of] China’s [state-owned enterprises] can move up pretty dramatically just on the idea of some reform.”

多尼根说：“通常情况下，流动性上升趋势可拉升所有的公司，不管是好的还是差的，而且中国（国有企业的股价）光靠改革的题材就能出现相当明显的上涨。”

She joins a number of international fund managers who believe China’s share-price rally has some way to go, despite the country’s decelerating economic growth.

不少国际基金经理与多尼根观点一致，他们相信中国的股价反弹还有一定空间，尽管中国经济增长速度正在放缓。

It is difficult to get a handle on what is cheap or expensive; there could be an accident in the propertysector

至于哪支股便宜哪支贵，现在很难说，而房地产板块可能会遭遇不测。

Many investors point to healthcare, pharmaceuticals, new energy and technology — notably ecommerce and robotics — as sectors less vulnerable to the bursting of a potential bubble.

许多投资者提到医疗保健、制药、新能源以及科技——尤其是电子商务和机器人——板块，认为它们不那么容易受到潜在泡沫破裂的冲击。

Helen Zhu, head of China equities at BlackRock, the world’s biggest fund house, is particularly positive on Hong Kong-listed mid-cap banks, as well as property and utility companies. She is less convinced by companies in construction, capital goods, transport and energy.

全球最大基金公司贝莱德(BlackRock)的中国股票主管朱悦(Helen Zhu)尤其看好香港上市的中等市值银行，以及房地产和公用事业公司。她对建筑、资本品、运输和能源板块比较缺乏信心。

Investor faith is underpinned by the fact that China’s government is expected to carry out a radical overhaul of its state-owned assets, forcing companies in areas such as oil and banking to consolidate and list on public markets. The total number of state-run businesses could fall from around 140 today to a dozen, according to James Chong, Greater China director at Martin Currie, the Edinburgh-based fund house.

支撑投资者信心的一个事实是，预计中国政府将对国有资产实施大刀阔斧的改革，强令石油和银行业等领域的企业进行整合、而后公开上市。马丁可利(Martin Currie)大中华区主管庄明(James Chong)表示，中央政府掌管的国企的总数可能会从目前的约140家降到十几家。马丁可利是一家总部位于爱丁堡的基金公司。

Mr Chong adds that Chinese monetary policy has strengthened confidence in the stock market. The People’s Bank of China last month cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves by one percentage point, to 18.5 per cent. Mr Chong believes further cuts are likely, enabling banks to lend more easily to companies and in turn propping up equity valuations.

庄明补充称，中国的货币政策了增强了股市的信心。上月，中国央行将存款准备金率下调1个百分点，至18.5%。庄明相信，中国央行很可能会进一步下调存准率，使银行更容易向企业放贷，这反过来将支撑股票的估值。

Robert Horrocks, chief investment officer at Matthews Asia, the San Francisco fund house, says: “Some parts [of the stock market] are overheated, for sure.

旧金山基金公司马修斯亚洲(Matthews Asia)的首席投资官何如克(Robert Horrocks)称：“（中国股市的）某些板块肯定是过热的。

“However, given the intensely bearish sentiment about China that we had going into this bull run, and the practical steps China has been taking to improve both its economy and the markets, I am sceptical of the immediate desire to write off the rally as just another bubble. There is still plenty of value out there if you pick the right names.”

“然而，考虑到我们进入这波牛市时对中国所持的强烈悲观看法，以及中国为改善经济和市场而采取的实际举措，我对眼下一些人希望把这轮反弹贬为只是另一个泡沫的做法持怀疑态度。如果你选对了股票，仍可挖掘出大把的价值。”

Other investors are more cautious but stop well short of displaying nervousness. Gemma Godfrey, head of investment strategy at Brooks MacDonald, the UK wealth manager, says: “Chinese stocks have further upside but the road ahead will be bumpy. With the strength of the dollar, the fall in commodity prices, and an eventual rate rise in the US, the outlook for emerging markets is tenuous.”

其他投资者要更谨慎一些，但已不再表现得那么紧张。英国财富管理公司Brooks MacDonald的投资策略主管杰玛•戈弗雷(Gemma Godfrey)称：“中国股市还有进一步上涨空间，但前路崎岖。在美元坚挺、大宗商品价格下滑以及美国最终将加息的情况下，新兴市场的前景充满变数。”

Heinz Ruettimann, head of emerging market strategy research at Julius Baer, the Swiss private bank, adds: “Everyone is expecting a pullback in the stock market after such a good run. The question is how severe can this pullback be? It is difficult for investors to get a handle on what is cheap or expensive and there could be an accident in the property sector.”

瑞士私人银行宝盛(Julius Baer)的新兴市场策略研究主管海因茨•吕提曼(Heinz Ruettimann)补充称：“在经历如此好的涨势后，每个人都在预期股市会发生回调。问题是这次回调会有多严重？对投资者来说，现在弄明白哪支股便宜哪支贵真的很难，而房地产板块可能会遭遇不测。”

He believes that the government has the credibility and the room to manoeuvre to avoid a large negative event in the stock market. “[Beijing] has embraced pension and healthcare reforms and [an overhaul of] its state-owned enterprises. You really see a $10tn economy that is progressing,” he says.

他相信，中国政府有相应的可信度和回旋余地来避免股市发生重大负面事件。他表示：“（北京方面）已积极采取养老金和医疗改革，并（彻底改造）国有企业。你确实可以看到，这个规模达10万亿美元的经济体正在不断取得进展。”