国际投资者涌入西班牙酒店市场

“I do not think there is a boom in the hotel industry in Spain. I just think the trend is changing,” says Jordi Badia Llorens, whose Barcelona real estate fund Emin Capital just paid 150 million euros for Barcelona’s iconic Torre Agbar building, in which it plans to invest another 50-60 million euros to refurbish it for use as a Grand Hyatt hotel.

“我不认为西班牙酒店行业出现了一波繁荣。我只是认为，趋势正在改变。”乔迪o巴迪亚o洛伦斯表示。他的巴塞罗那房地产基金Emin Capital刚刚以1.5亿欧元买下了当地的地标性建筑Torre Agbar大楼，并计划再投资5000万-6000万欧元将其重新装修，改建为一家君悦（Grand Hyatt）酒店。

One could be excused for disagreeing.

若有人持不同观点，也在情理之中。

After fleeing the country following the 2008 collapse of its real estate bubble, property investors have flooded into the Spanish hotel market. In fact, during the first half of 2014, 724 million euros (about $1 billion) was injected into the Spanish hotel sector, according to CBRE Spain, compared to 665 million euros in all of 2013.

2008年西班牙房地产泡沫破裂后投资者一度夺路而走，但如今房地产投资者已重新涌入西班牙酒店市场。事实上，世邦魏理仕西班牙（CBRE Spain）提供的数据显示，仅2014年上半年就有7.24亿欧元（约10亿美元）的资金注入西班牙酒店市场，已经超出2013年全年的6.65亿欧元。

Like Badia’s purchase of the Torre Agbar, many of the investments have been large.

像巴迪亚收购Torre Agbar大楼一样，很多投资都是大手笔。

The Spanish group KKH Capital & Property and the New York-based Perella Weinberg Partners bought Barcelona’s Deutsche Bank tower for 90 euros million and plan to convert it into a luxury hotel. Katara Hospitality, a wing of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, paid 60 millioneuros for Madrid’s InterContinental hotel. The George Soros-funded Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios bought the Hotel Guadalmina resort in Marbella for 21.5 million euros. And the investment arm of Qatar’s military bought Barcelona’s Renaissance Hotel for 78.5 million euros.

西班牙KKH Capital & Property集团和总部位于纽约的Perella Weinberg Partners以9000万欧元买下巴塞罗那的德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）大楼，计划将其改建为一家豪华酒店。卡塔尔主权财富基金之一Katara Hospitality以6000万欧元买下马德里的洲际酒店（InterContinental）。乔治o索罗斯持股的Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios以2150万欧元购得马尔贝拉的Hotel Guadalmina度假村。卡塔尔军方的投资机构以7850万欧元购得巴塞罗那的万丽酒店（Renaissance Hotel）。

The appeal of the Spanish hotel industry is obvious: tourism. The industry has been the driver of Spain’s nascent economic recovery. During the first seven months of 2014, 36.3 million foreign tourists visitedthe country and spent 35 billion euros, both record highs.

西班牙酒店行业的卖点显而易见，那就是旅游业。旅游业一直是西班牙经济初步复苏的动力。2014年前7个月，有3630万名海外游客到访西班牙，消费了350亿欧元，游客人数和消费金额均创下新高。

But there are other, less obvious reasons for the boom in hotel investment in Spain. For one, Spain’s trip to the brink and back has made investments in its hotel market much more profitable than the frothy real estate markets in other countries.

但是，西班牙酒店行业的投资繁荣背后还有一些不那么显而易见的原因。在经历经济危机后，西班牙经济出现复苏，这使得其酒店市场的投资回报率远高于其他国家出现泡沫的房地产市场。

“For the last six years, international investors didn’t trust the euro zone. So they decided to invest in any market outside of the Euro, like the U.K., Switzerland, and the Nordic countries. Because investment was so concentrated in those countries, they created a large bubble,” says Patricio Palomar Murillo, director of research and investment strategy at CBRE Spain. “Now, they are looking to diversify geographically. And now that’s there’s not so much worry that Spain will leave the euro, it’s becoming one of the most interesting countries to invest in.”

“过去六年，国际投资者不怎么看好欧元区。他们决定投资欧元区以外的国家，比如，英国、瑞士和北欧国家。由于对这些国家的投资过于集中，产生了巨大的泡沫。”世邦魏理仕西班牙的研究和投资策略总监帕特里西奥o帕洛玛o穆里洛表示，“现在他们正在寻求投资地域多元化。由于市场不再怎么担心西班牙是否会脱离欧元区，该国正成为投资者最感兴趣的投资目的地之一。”

There is also the issue of profitability. Spain’s residential property market has seen huge price drops—over 50% in some areas—but disparate property portfolios and overbuilding have made investing adifficult proposition. Shopping centers are an option, but mostly for experienced mall operators. And profitability for prime office space is down.

另外，还有盈利能力的问题。西班牙的住宅市场价格已大幅下跌（有些地区跌幅超过了50%），但是五花八门的房地产投资组合以及建筑过剩已令投资抉择艰难。购物中心是一种选择，但主要适合有经验的购物中心运营商。顶级办公楼的盈利能力也在下降。

Prime office investment yields, which bottomed at 4.25% during Spain’s real estate bubble in 2007, surged after the price crash to 6.5% in 2009. But the combination of falling rents, which bottomed in 2013, and a rise in office building prices inspired by international investors, has sent yields back to 5.5%, according to CBRE Spain.

顶级办公楼的投资收益率在2007年西班牙的房地产泡沫期间曾创下4.25%的低点，后来在2009年办公楼房价暴跌后一度飙升至6.5%。但据世邦魏理仕西班牙的数据，由于租金下降（2013年触底）和外国投资者推高办公楼房价，收益率已回落至5.5%。

“These days, hotels are profitable sources of income, which can’t be said for offices,” says Badia.

“现在，酒店是盈利来源，办公楼就谈不上了。”巴迪亚表示。

So, what will this investment surge mean in the coming years? Investors like Badia are betting that Spain’s tourism boom—and its evolution—will translate into large profits for those who invest now.

那么，此番投资激增对于未来几年又意味着什么呢？像巴迪亚这样的投资者认定，西班牙的旅游业繁荣（及其发展）将转化为现今投资者的巨额利润。

“Since the 90s, tourism in Spain has been a recurring and stable source of revenue,” Badia says. “What we have seen is that the type of tourism to Spain has changed, and with it, the kind of hotels, especially in urban areas. A few years ago, in Barcelona, there were few international luxury brands, while today everyone is looking to have the best hotel in town.”

“自上世纪90年代以来，西班牙旅游业就一直是持续稳定的收入源泉。”巴迪亚表示，“我们看到西班牙的旅游市场格局已经改变，随之而来的是，受亲睐的酒店类型，特别是城市地区的酒店类型也在改变。几年前，巴塞罗那几乎没有国际豪华品牌酒店，如今人人都想要最好的酒店。”

Not everyone is so sanguine. Pau Guardans, founder and owner of Unico Hotels, says that much of the hotel investment boom can be traced to the poor profitability of other real estate investments in Spain, as well as revised laws for SOCIMIs (Spain’s version of REITs), which have attracted several billion euros into Spanish real estate.

并不是所有人都这么乐观。Unico Hotels的创始人及所有人波o戈丹斯认为，此番酒店投资繁荣在一定程度上是因为西班牙其他房地产板块的投资收益不佳，以及SOCIMI法律修订[即西班牙版的房地产信托基金（REIT）]，这吸引了数十亿欧元的投资进入西班牙房地产市场。

“That there is investor pressure [in hotels] doesn’t mean that hotels are great investments. But they are better than the rest,” says Guardans.

“（酒店）受到投资者青睐，并不意味着酒店就是极棒的投资。但它们比其他投资好。”戈丹斯表示。

Guardans expects the investment surge to lead to a glut of hotel space in the coming years, which would cut the profitability of investments being made today.

戈丹斯预计，投资激增将导致未来一些年酒店过剩，降低当前投资的盈利能力。

“There will be more supply than demand in hotels in Spain when all these are built in two or three years,” he says. “Barcelona is a clear case. Madrid or the coast too.”

“两三年后，当所有这些投资项目都建成时，西班牙酒店市场将出现供大于求的局面。”他说，“巴塞罗那显然是这样，马德里或沿海地区也可能出现这样的状况。”

Still, Guardans says he is looking at space in Madrid, which has seen less hotel investment than Barcelona. And investors like Badia expect demand to meet the supply.

但戈丹斯表示，他正在马德里寻找机会，这个地区的酒店投资少于巴塞罗那。但像巴迪亚这样的投资者预计需求增长能赶上供应增长。

“Over the decades, Spain has shown that it is able to absorb the hotel supply. Even in the crisis years, tourists have continued to visit Spain,” Badia says.

“过去几十年，西班牙一直都能够消化酒店供应。即便是在危机时期，西班牙也一直吸引游客们前往。”巴迪亚说。