深港通会受国际投资者青睐吗

There are few things like a bull market to turn an investor’s head.

没多少东西能像牛市一样冲昏投资者的头脑。

Just look at China.

看看中国就知道了。

Having slumped almost 50 per cent from its peak last June to a low in early January, the benchmark CSI 300 Index is now up 20 per cent.

基准股指沪深300指数(CSI 300)去年6月见顶后，大幅下挫近50%，在今年1月初跌至最低点，到现在又上涨了20%。

The memory-erasing qualities of this year’s rally in Shanghai will soon be given a real test as a trading link between Hong Kong and the stock market in Shenzhen will make it far easier for investors to gain exposure to the shares of Chinese companies listed on the mainland.

随着香港和深圳股市互联互通机制将使投资者能够更为方便地投资中国内地股票，上海股市今年上涨行情所体现出的好了伤疤忘了痛的特性很快将面临一场真正的考验。

The link to the Shenzhen market, or Stock Connect, as it’s known, could open as early as next week and, together with an existing trading link between Hong Kong and Shanghai, will be the only direct route available for foreign investors to trade mainland stocks without prior approval from authorities in Beijing.

深港通最早可能在下周启动，它和现有的沪港通将是境外投资者不必事先经过中国主管部门批准、可直接买卖中国内地股票的仅有渠道。

So will foreign investors be lining up to buy?

那么，境外投资者会踊跃购买吗？

Shenzhen versus Shanghai

深市vs沪市

The drawcard for Shenzhen is greater access to some of China’s most sought-after technology companies, with some analysts viewing this as one reason Shenzhen’s appeal could easily rival, if not exceed, that of Shanghai, whose bourse is dominated by state-owned enterprises and older industrial businesses.

深圳的一大优势是这里聚集了多家最受追捧的中国科技公司，一些分析师认为这是深圳市场的吸引力即使不超过上海市场也与之相当的一个原因，后者上市企业的主体是国企和旧经济领域的企业。

You look at the Shenzhen SME board, the ChiNext board and they are expensive, but you cannot deny quite a lot of the new interesting Chinese tech companies and new start-ups have started to come to these two markets, said Vincent Chan, head of China macro research at Credit Suisse.

你看看深市中小板(SME)和创业板(ChiNext)，它们都不便宜，但你无法否认，大量新兴的令人感兴趣的中国科技公司和新兴创业企业都开始来到这两个板块，瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)中国宏观研究主管陈昌华(Vincent Chan)说。

For foreign investors, I would say Shenzhen is more important than Shanghai right now.

对境外投资者而言，我会说，目前深市比沪市更重要。

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange, just over the border from Hong Kong, has become the nexus for the listed technology, consumer and healthcare companies that are at the forefront of China’s new economy.

位于香港对岸的深交所，已成为科技、消费和医药行业上市公司的聚集地，这几个行业处于中国新经济领域的前沿位置。

While ChiNext, a market with lighter listing standards, played host to some of bubbliest companies during the 2015 boom and slump, with some trading on four-figure price earnings multiples.

创业板的上市标准相对宽松，2015年中国股市大起大落期间一些泡沫化最严重的股票就在创业板挂牌，其中一些个股的市盈率达到了四位数。

Indeed, to begin with the 200 ChiNext stocks that can be traded will only be offered to institutional investors, not retail, because of their high-risk nature.

实际上，由于该板股票的高风险特点，深港通启动初期，可供交易的200余只创业板股票仅面向机构投资者，散户不能买卖。

In total, the link with Shenzhen will add 880 stocks to the 567 already available to foreign investors through the Shanghai link.

总的来说，目前境外投资者通过沪港通可投资567只中国内地股票，深港通将再为他们奉上880只。

International exposure to China

国际投资者持有多少中国股票

So far most foreign exposure to mainland Chinese companies has come through those listed in New York or Hong Kong.

到目前为止，境外资金对中国内地企业的敞口，主要来自对在纽约或香港上市的公司的投资。

As recently as early 2016, foreign ownership of Shenzhen A-shares, or those listed on the Chinese mainland, was less than 1.2 per cent, according to data from China’s securities regulator.

中国证券监管机构的数据显示，2016年初，外资持有深圳A股的比例不到1.2%。

That is a fraction of foreigners’ 46 per cent share in Hong Kong, 26 per cent in Japan, or even 23 per cent in Russia.

这跟香港的46%、日本的26%、俄罗斯的23%相比微不足道。

Even including Shanghai, international investors account for only 2 per cent of investment in mainland markets.

即使把沪市包括在内，国际投资者在中国内地股市的投资比例也只占到2%。

The two Connect schemes will cover an estimated 80 per cent of China’s mainland market capitalisation, handing foreign investors almost full access to the A-share market through Hong Kong.

沪港通和深港通将覆盖中国A股总市值的约80%，几乎完全向境外投资者打开了借道香港进入A股市场的通道。

Turnover in Shenzhen in the first nine months of the year was $9tn, the fourth-highest in the world, according to data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and World Federation of Exchanges.

深交所和世界交易所联合会(World Federation of Exchanges)的数据显示，今年头9个月深交所的成交额达9万亿美元，排在全球第四位。

Steven Sun, head of China and HK equity strategy at HSBC, thinks that despite high valuations of the Shenzhen A-shares, which to some extent can be justified by higher growth, better liquidity and a small-cap premium there are two main reasons to invest in the market.

汇丰银行(HSBC)中国股票策略主管孙瑜(Steven Sun)认为，尽管深圳A股的估值水平较高，高成长性、较强流动性和小型股溢价从一定程度上证明这是合理的，但有两个主要原因说明这个市场值得投资。

Firstly, it has the lowest correlation to global equities compared to the Shanghai A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market and secondly, the high dispersion of returns means more stock-specific risks and more alpha opportunities for active managers.

首先，与上海A股和港股相比，它与全球股市的关联度最低，其次，股票投资回报率的高度分散，意味着对主动型基金经理来说，风险更多与个股相关，也会有更多的阿尔法机会。

‘Southbound’ flows and the renminbi

南下资金流和人民币

Investors and analysts will also be watching southbound flows through the Connects — those from Chinese mainland investors into Hong Kong —

投资者和分析师还会关注通过沪港通和深港通南下的资金流，也就是中国内地投资者投向香港的资金。

Which can act as a hedge against renminbi depreciation even though the Connect’s closed loop means investors buy or sell in their starting currency.

尽管这种联通机制的封闭循环意味着投资者买卖股票只能用该机制的启动货币人民币，南下资金流仍可以作为人民币贬值的一种对冲机制。

The depreciation of the renminbi has had a tremendous impact on Stock Connect flows this year, according to Nicole Yuen, head of Greater China equities at Credit Suisse.

根据瑞信大中华区证券部主管袁淑琴(Nicole Yuen)的说法，今年人民币贬值对沪港通资金流产生了巨大影响。

So-called southbound purchases from the mainland picked up in the second half of this year as the renminbi’s decline gathered pace, with investors favouring high-yielding stocks and dual-listed names in Hong Kong that were trading at sizeable discounts to their Shanghai cousins.

今年下半年，随着人民币贬值加快，来自中国内地的所谓南下买入势头见涨，投资者偏好高收益股票和两地上市企业的H股，这些股票相比沪市的A股存在较大折扣。

Likewise, northbound purchases cooled as international investors became less bullish about China after the bursting of the 2015 bubble and angst about the growth outlook.

另一方面，在2015年股市泡沫破裂、对中国增长前景开始感到不安之后，国际投资者不再像过去那样看多中国，北上的买入活动也随之降温。

The 30-day average of northbound purchases is now about a quarter of the average Rmb6.25bn ($917m) reached at the peak last summer.

如今，北上买入规模的30天平均值，大约是去年夏天峰值时期平均62.5亿元人民币（合9.17亿美元）规模的四分之一。

At the moment I would say one of the main reasons for the increased southbound flow is because of the expectation of the depreciation and the more subdued interest into the northbound flow again is also due to the market expectation the renminbi may go down further, Ms Yuen said.

袁淑琴表示：就眼下来说，南下资金流增长的主要原因之一，是由于对人民币贬值的预期，而对北上买入的兴趣降低，也是人民币会进一步贬值的市场预期导致的。

Steps in the right direction

正确的政策措施

Underlying all the interest in Shenzhen is how the trading links allow direct access in and out of China - a key sticking point for MSCI, the index provider which this year cited the inability to easily sell shares as a reason for its decision not to include A-shares in its widely-tracked stock indices.

在对深市全部投资兴趣的背后，一个深层问题是沪港通和深港通将在多大程度允许直接买进、卖出中国股票，这是明晟(MSCI)将A股纳入其指数的关键症结所在。这家指数提供商今年决定不将A股纳入旗下被广泛跟踪的股票指数，并提到一个原因是A股的股票无法轻易地转手卖出。

Running alongside the Connect schemes is the QFII, or qualified foreign institutional investor schemes.

与沪港通和深港通并行的还有合格境外机构投资者(QFII)机制。

These require Beijing to individually approve each investor, which is a lengthy proocess and does not allow investments to be repatriated at will.

这种机制需要北京方面逐一地批准投资者，这是个漫长的过程，而且也不允许随意撤回投资。

QFII was the preferred option for international investors, but since the renminbi depreciation and the abolition of the aggregate quota, Stock Connect has become a more popular choice, said Christina Ma, head of Greater China equity sales at Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)大中华区股票交易主管Christina Ma表示：QFII曾是国际投资者更偏爱的选项，不过自人民币贬值和取消总配额以来，沪港通已成为更受欢迎的选择。