投资者将从中国两会寻觅线索
With China’s annual parliament meeting opening in Beijing this weekend, punch-drunk stock investors will be looking for clues to help navigate its notoriously policy-driven market.
在中国一年一度的人代会本周末在北京召开之际，晕头转向的股市投资者将从中寻找蛛丝马迹，以帮助他们把握这个著名的政策市。
They need all the help they can get. After a tumultuous 2015 that ended with the Shanghai Composite 9 per cent higher, the index has lost 19 per cent so far this year.
他们需要他们能够得到的所有帮助。大涨大跌的2015年以上证综指(Shanghai Composite)收涨9%结局，而今年迄今该指数已跌去19%。
For investors the challenge will be to uncover fresh investment opportunities in a market that has undergone numerous rounds of enthusiasm and retrenchment in recent months, based on an array of real and imagined policy trends.
对投资者来说，挑战在于在中国股市发现新的投资机遇。最近几个月，由于一系列真实或想象的政策趋势，中国股市上演了无数次火爆和冷场。
One sardonic aphorism that has been circulating states: “All that can be hyped has been hyped already.”
近来有一句流传的讽刺性格言是这么说的：“所有能炒作的都炒作过了。”
The National People’s Congress (NPC) begins tomorrow with a speech in which Li Keqiang, premier, will formally present the government’s work report for parliamentary approval. The report, which lays out the policy priorities for the year, will provide valuable clues on how authorities intend to strike a balance between short-term stimulus and long-term structural reform.
全国人民代表大会(NPC)将于明天开幕，中国总理李克强将作政府工作报告，将其提交人大审议。报告会列出当年政策优先次序，它将提供有价值的线索，展示当局打算如何平衡短期刺激和长期结构性改革。
Most closely watched will be the growth target for gross domestic product, expected to be between 6.5 and 7 per cent. That compares with the 2015 target of “around 7 per cent” and actual growth of 6.9 per cent. A low-end target would indicate greater emphasis on deleveraging and reform but imply tolerance for more pain in the ailing manufacturing and construction sectors.
最受瞩目的将是国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标，预计该目标会在6.5%到7%之间。这一目标将与2015年“7%左右”的增长目标及6.9%的实际增长率形成对照。若目标取在该区间的低端，将表明中国政府比较注重去杠杆和改革，但也意味着挣扎中的制造业和建筑业将面临更大痛苦。
“They understand the peril of excessive debt build-up and do not wish to pursue growth acceleration just for the sake of it,” says Wei Yao, China economist at Société Générale, in a note.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)中国经济学家姚炜在一份报告中表示：“他们明白积累过高债务的危险性，不希望为增长而增长。”
A separate finance ministry report will outline the fiscal budget. It is widely expected to raise the fiscal deficit target for 2016, as authorities seek to complement recent monetary easing with greater fiscal stimulus.
财政部的另一份报告将介绍中国政府的财政预算。人们普遍预计，由于当局试图以更大规模的财政刺激配合近期的货币政策放松，2016年的财政赤字目标会有所提升。
“We expect a very clear expansion of fiscal policy this year” says Shao Yu at Orient Securities in Shanghai. “The key is, where does the money flow?”
“我们预计今年会采取非常明确的扩张性财政政策。”上海东方证券(Orient Securities)的邵宇表示。“关键在于，资金会流向何方？”
If spending is directed towards traditional growth drivers such as housing and infrastructure, that will favour machinery, construction and basic commodity stocks. But some analysts expect fiscal support to concentrate on business tax cuts, which would favour smaller enterprises and the services sector. A third possibility is an emphasis on social welfare expenditure such as education, health and care for older people.
如果财政支出被导向住房和基础设施等传统的增长推动因素，那将有利于机械、建筑及基本商品股票。不过，一些分析师预计财政支持举措会集中于营业税的减免，那将有利于小企业和服务业。第三种可能性则是会把重点放在教育、医疗及照顾老人等社会福利开支方面。
Another area of focus will be the government’s pursuit of “supply-side reform”, and any clues on the closing of “zombie companies” in sectors with overcapacity such as steel, coal and base metals.
另一个关注领域将是政府对“供给侧改革”的推行，以及关闭钢铁、煤炭和基础金属等产能过剩行业的“僵尸企业”的迹象。
While the broad policy direction is clear, what is less certain is how aggressively the government will proceed, given the risks of unemployment, falling tax revenues and the loan defaults that would result.
尽管政策大方向很清楚，但鉴于由此导致的失业、税收减少和贷款违约风险，政府推行这些政策的力度不那么确定。
A stronger than expected push to deal with overcapacity would boost stocks of the leading companies in the relevant sectors, which would enjoy reduced competition and higher prices. Generous budget allocations for lay-off compensation would signal that the restructuring push is to happen.
在应对产能过剩方面，比预期更大的推行力度将提振相关行业龙头企业的股价，这些企业将得益于减弱的竞争和较高的价格。对下岗补偿的大额拨款将预示政府会推行经济结构调整。
Chinese bond investors will also be watching the meeting with interest, including foreign investors, given the central bank move last month to widen access to the onshore bond market.
考虑到中国央行(PBoC)上月采取措施扩大在岸债券市场投资准入范围，中国债券的投资者（包括境外投资者）也将密切关注两会。
The report will include targets for broad money (M2) growth, a policy that influences liquidity in the money and bond markets. M2 growth of 13.3 per cent last year exceeded the target of 12 per cent and a similar target is expected this year.
两会的报告将包含广义货币供应量(M2)的增长目标，该政策将影响货币和债券市场的流动性。去年M2增长13.3%，超过12%的目标，今年预计也将设立类似的目标。
Sovereign bond investors are likely to take heart from signs that monetary accommodation will continue, making a jump in interest rates triggering a bond sell-off unlikely. But spreads on riskier corporate bonds could widen if the government signals a strong commitment to restructuring, which implies a greater tolerance for defaults and the withdrawal of implicit guarantees.
货币宽松将继续进行的迹象可能会让主权债券投资者增强信心，因为它意味着加息引发债券抛售变得不太可能。但如果政府做出推进结构调整的坚定承诺，暗示对违约和撤回隐形担保采取更宽容的态度，那么风险更高的公司债券的息差可能扩大。
But whatever the policy signals, analysts say foreign investors are unlikely to rush in to the Chinese bond market.
但无论政策释放出何种信号，分析师们表示境外投资者不太可能贸然进入中国债市。
