史上最大的泡沫 中国楼市暴涨引崩盘担忧

SHANGHAI — Zheng Ruizhen counted herself among the last holdouts on Lufeng Road.

上海——郑瑞珍（音）认为自己是陆丰路上最后的钉子户之一。

Even as high-rises sprang up in recent years to surround her dilapidated home, Ms. Zheng, a 50-year-old schoolteacher, and her husband, Sun Guojian, held firm. He grew up there. Her school was a 20-minute bicycle ride away. They raised their son there, though he eventually grew so tall that his head grazed the ceiling of his cramped room. When city officials pushed them to sell, they said no.

尽管近些年她破旧的家周围涌现出很多高楼大厦，但50岁的学校教师郑瑞珍和丈夫孙国建（音译）还在坚守。孙在那里长大。郑的学校骑车20分即达。他们的儿子也在这里长大，虽然儿子现在已经长得很高，头都会擦到狭小房间的天花板。市政官员催促他们卖房时，他们拒绝了。

Then came China’s latest property bubble — a frothy surge in prices that could have global repercussions if it pops.

然后出现了中国最新的地产泡沫——价格飞涨产生的泡沫一旦破裂，会对全世界产生影响。

In August, an unremarkable piece of land around the corner from Ms. Zheng sold for nearly $2,000 a square foot, a national record and nearly three times the average land price in Manhattan. Local officials grew more insistent and threatened to tear down their bathroom.

今年8月，郑家附近一个很普通的地块以每平方英尺近2000美元的价格出售，打破了全国记录，几乎是曼哈顿平均地价的三倍。地方官员更加急切，威胁要拆除他们家的卫生间。

Finally, they relented, and Ms. Zheng’s husband signed away the home for a price to be determined later. Then, on Oct. 9, Mr. Sun died of a heart attack, something Ms. Zheng said was perhaps influenced by stress over the pending demolition of their home.

他们最终妥协，郑的丈夫签字放弃这个房子，价格待定。10月9日，孙因心脏病发作去世，郑说可能是受到住房即将被拆除的压力影响。

Now, as she grieves, she is waiting to hear how much the Shanghai government will offer in compensation — but however much that is, she knows it will not be enough for her to be able to afford to live anywhere close to Lufeng Road.

现在，悲伤的她还在等待上海市政府的补偿价格——但她知道不管补多少，都不够她在陆丰路附近买个房子。

Said Ms. Zheng: “I never expected housing prices in Shanghai would get this high.”

郑说：“我从没想到上海的房价会变得这么高。”

China is in the midst of a dizzying housing bubble. Shanghai’s average housing price is up nearly one-third from a year ago, with prices in major cities like Beijing and Guangzhou not far behind. Chinese consumers are rushing to buy homes before the government steps in with restrictions.

中国正处于令人头晕目眩的房价泡沫之中。上海的平均房价比一年前上涨了近三分之一。北京和广州等大城市的房价相去不远。中国消费者正在政府介入并采取限制措施之前争相买房。

When rumors swept through Shanghai that the government would require homeowners to pay more in taxes and down payments to buy additional properties, many couples filed for divorce so that one partner could still be treated as an independent buyer.

当上海谣传政府将要求房主在购买额外房产时缴纳更多税款和首付款时，很多夫妻申请离婚，以便一方能够仍被当作独立购房者对待。

China has experienced housing booms and busts before. And fervor for real estate among the wealthiest Chinese has already spread far beyond the country’s borders, from Long Island mansions to disused ranches in Texas — many to get their money out of the country.

中国经历过房地产繁荣和崩溃。中国最富有人群对房地产的狂热已蔓延至国外，从长岛(Long Island)的住宅到德克萨斯州废弃的农场——很多是为了把钱转移到国外。

But economists warn that the current boom on the Chinese mainland could be extra difficult to resolve: It comes with a growing amount of American-style debt.

不过经济学家们警告称，中国大陆目前的房价暴涨解决起来可能会特别困难：它伴随着越来越多的美国式债务。

Long-term household loans — mostly mortgages — have doubled as a share of total official bank lending this year. They accounted for about 40 percent of all new loans in August, contrasted with just 20 percent at the start of the year. The value of new home loans as a percentage of all housing sales has surged to a record high.

今年，长期房贷——大多是抵押贷款——占全部官方银行贷款的比例翻了一番。今年8月，房贷占全部新贷款的比例约为40%，而年初仅为20%。新房贷的价值占全部住房销售额的比例暴涨至历史新高。

The loans — largely a byproduct of a flood of Chinese lending to keep the economy growing — are helping the affluent, the middle class and low earners who have dreamed of owning a home, while investors and speculators are piling in, too. Underground lenders — those who operate outside the formal banking system using a variety of new platforms — are also helping to feed the boom.

这些贷款大多是中国为保持经济增长而出现的贷款狂潮的副产品，它们正在帮助富人、中产阶级、以及梦想拥有一套房子的低收入人群，不过投资者和投机者也在涌入。地下放债者，也就是利用各种新平台，在正式银行系统之外运作的人，也助长了这次暴涨。

Last month, economists at the Bank of China warned in a report that worsening asset price bubbles were adding to a frothy market that could result in trouble. The day before, Wang Jianlin, a politically connected property and entertainment magnate who is one of the country’s richest people, told CNN that China property was “the biggest bubble in history.”

上个月，中国银行的经济学家在一份报告中警告称，日益恶化的资产价格泡沫正在促进一个有泡沫的市场，可能会导致麻烦。之前一天，有政治背景的地产和娱乐业大亨、中国富豪王健林对CNN表示，中国地产是“史上最大的泡沫”。

That could be bad news for the global economy. Many economists estimate that housing and related areas — like construction, cement manufacturing or furniture making — account for roughly one-fifth of China’s economic activity. But if the bubble pops, that support could disappear quickly.

那对全球经济可能是坏消息。很多经济学家估计，房地产及相关领域——比如建筑业、水泥生产或家具制造——占中国经济活动的约五分之一。如果这个泡沫破裂，这个支柱可能会很快消失。

Chinese officials, apparently mindful of the 2008 American housing bust, appear to be aware of the risks of a debt-fueled property bubble. But some economists worry they will be too slow to rein it in.

中国官员显然记得美国2008年的房地产崩盘，似乎也意识到了债务高筑的地产泡沫的风险。不过，有些经济学家担心，等他们试图控制，可能会为时已晚。

“The risk is that the government is late in cooling the market, the rally spreads to more areas, pushing up household leverage and construction activity, pushing the bubble bigger, which is then followed by a bigger downward correction,” said Tao Wang, the head of China economics at UBS in Hong Kong.

“风险在于，中国政府给可能太晚才给市场降温，房地产上涨会扩展至更多领域，推动居民负债和建设活动，催生更大的泡沫，随后出现更大力度的下行纠正，”瑞银集团(UBS)驻香港的首席中国经济学家汪涛称。

Local regulators are already trying to cool things down. In the last few weeks, local authorities have accelerated efforts to tighten housing markets in up to 20 Chinese cities, according to economists at China International Capital Corporation, an investment bank.

地方监管机构已经在努力给楼市降温。据投资银行中国国际金融公司的经济学家称，在过去几周里，地方当局在多达20个城市加快了收紧住房市场的行动。

But in many cases these steps have only added to the rush, as home buyers move in while they can.

不过，在很多情况下，这些行动只是助长了购房热，因为买家想在政策允许时赶快出手。

By her account, Zhang Xia and her husband have enjoyed a happy marriage. Then the rumor swept the city that Shanghai authorities would make it harder for couples with one home to buy more.

据张霞（音译）称，她和丈夫婚姻幸福。然后整个城市都在谣传，上海市当局将增加已有一套住房的夫妻购买更多房产的难度。

On a recent Monday, Ms. Zhang, a 40-year-old resident of Shanghai’s Huangpu area, and her husband sat waiting at a local marriage registry office to file for divorce. Shanghai officials continue to deny that they will limit house buying by couples, but Ms. Zhang is among many who do not believe them.

前不久的一个周一，家住上海黄浦区的40岁的张和丈夫在当地一个婚姻登记处等待申请离婚。上海市官员继续否认他们将限制夫妻购房，不过张和其他很多人一样，不相信官员们的话。

“We know the government said this is a rumor, but they also said that a few times before, when the rumor actually came true,” Ms. Zhang said. “Some people even said the fact that the government said it’s a rumor means it’s going to be true.”

“我们知道政府在辟谣，但是以前他们也辟过几次谣，后来谣言都成真了，”张说，“有些人甚至说，政府辟谣就说明肯定会发生。”

Shanghai, China’s financial capital, is at the heart of the property boom. Demand there is so intense that developers now commonly require sizable deposits of cash just to join a lottery to buy a new apartment. Only holders of winning numbers will be offered the chance to buy a unit. One flashy new development in central Shanghai charges a refundable 200,000 renminbi, or $30,000, to enter its lottery.

中国的金融中心上海处于这次地产暴涨的中心。这里的需求非常旺盛，现在开发商通常要求购房者支付一大笔现金订金，才能参与摇号，购买新房。只有摇到号的人才有机会买一套房。上海市中心一个奢华的新楼盘要求购房者支付可退还的20万人民币订金才能参与摇号。

“In Shanghai now,” said Wang Jie, a sales manager there, “it’s not like you can buy an apartment just because you have money.”

“现在在上海，”当地的一名销售经理王杰（音）称，“不是有钱就能买到房。”

Back on Lufeng Road, the recently widowed Ms. Zheng and her neighbors try to go about their lives despite the boom going on around them. Men and women play mah-jongg near a half-demolished house, one of a number of dwellings along the road in various states of disassembly, like a row of rotting teeth. Stray dogs sunbathe and alley cats hunt around piles of red bricks and wooden beams scattered on the street.

在陆丰路，新近丧偶的郑和邻居们努力继续自己的生活，尽管周围的地产在暴涨。男人和女人们在一所被拆了一半的房子附近打麻将。沿路还有很多住宅，处于不同的拆除阶段，就像一排腐坏的牙齿。流浪狗在晒太阳，野猫在一堆堆红砖周围觅食，木梁散落在街上。

In recent months, local officials hung red propaganda banners on people’s housing extolling the benefits of selling out. “No more hesitation means no more disappointment,” reads one. Says another: “Requisition and compensation are lawful. Smart alecks will regret it later.”

近几个月，当地官员在人们的房子上挂起红幅，宣传卖房的益处。“不要再犹豫，不会再失望，”其中一道红幅上写道。另一道上写着：“征收政策有法度，自作聪明后悔迟。”

“Look at those banners,” Ms. Zheng said, shaking her head. “It’s almost like the Cultural Revolution once again.”

“看看那些红幅，”郑摇着头说，“就像文革又来了。”

Earlier, local officials told Ms. Zheng that the land where her home stands would be used to build supporting facilities for the next-door complex of high-rises built by China Vanke, the country’s largest property developer.

之前，当地官员对郑说，她家所在的那块地将被用于为旁边的高楼群建配套设施。那些楼是中国最大的地产开发商万科建造的。

“They said that when people who live in the high-rises in Vanke look down, the view from their windows is our ugly roofs,” she said. “So they have to get rid of us.”

“他们说，住在万科高楼上的人往下看，看到的就是我们这些难看的屋顶，”她说，“所以他们必须把我们赶走。”