短线观点 股市就是投机天堂
Commentators have been shocked, shocked, to find that there’s gambling going on in Chinese and Hong Kong shares. The immediate cause of worry was the plunge in the Hong Kong-listed shares of solar group Hanergy Thin Film on Wednesday and of two companies in the Goldin horse breeding-to-finance conglomerate.
评论人士无限震惊地发现，针对中国的股票正在上演一场赌博。引发担忧的直接原因是在香港上市的中国太阳能企业汉能薄膜发电(HTF)周三暴跌，以及业务范围囊括育马、金融多个领域的高银集团(Goldin)旗下两家公司股票暴跌。
Everyone from academics, the media and amused City onlookers have rushed to explain that the Chinese market is dominated by mere speculation. Ridiculous gains and losses in shares had nothing to do with fundamentals because the gamblers involved can’t even spell “price-earning ratio” — or in some cases read and write, if reports of the lack of literacy of many of those opening mainland brokerage accounts are accurate.
从学术界、媒体到伦敦金融城看戏的旁观者，每个人都急忙出来解释说，纯粹的投机主导着中国股市。股票莫名其妙的涨跌与基本面毫无关系，因为参与其中的赌徒们连“市盈率”都写不对，有些根本不识字（假如有关中国内地许多开设股票交易账户的人没什么文化的报道真实的话）。It is true that Chinese markets are a speculative heaven. So, too, are stock markets everywhere, to a greater or lesser degree. Indeed, that is a large part of the appeal, as a glance at the propensity of traders to take a personal flutter on everything from elections to Premier League points should make clear.
诚然，中国股市是投机天堂。不过，任何地方的股市或多或少都是。没错儿，这恰恰是股市的主要吸引力所在，只用粗略注意一下交易员多么喜欢就任何东西——从选举结果到英超(Premier League)分数——打赌就应该明白这一点。
Economists like to think that the “point” of stock exchanges is to allow companies to raise money, to provide prices to guide management decisions and to allow investors to cash in when required.
经济学家喜欢说，股票交易所存在的“意义”是让企业能够有融资途径，提供价格引导管理决策，让投资者能够在需要的时候将股票套现。But markets sprang up just as much because speculators liked to bet on whatever was available, from lottery derivatives to “dead man’s tickets” provided as promissory notes by the Royal Navy, as historian Helen Paul at the University of Southampton points out.
然而，正如南安普敦大学(Southampton university)的海伦•保罗(Helen Paul)所指出的，股市出现的原因还包括投机者喜欢对一切可以赌的东西下赌注，从彩票衍生品、到皇家海军(Royal Navy)的票据（被称为“死人票”）。This is not to say that fundamentals such as profit, dividend or the state of the economy do not matter. But speculation matters at least as much, if not more, and always has. John Maynard Keynes provided perhaps the best analysis in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, comparing shares to a beauty contest where winning is not about selecting the prettiest, but anticipating what average opinion thinks will be the average opinion of who is prettiest.
这并不是说利润、分红或经济状况等基本面因素不重要。但投机因素至少跟基本面一样重要，如果说不是更重要的话，始终如是。约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)在《就业、利息和货币通论》(The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money)中的分析或许是最妙的：他把股票比作一场选美竞赛，关键不在于选择最漂亮的参赛者，而在于预测人们普遍会认为哪位参赛者最符合大多数人的审美。“Investment based on genuine long-term expectation is so difficult today as to be scarcely practicable,” Keynes wrote in 1935. It has not become any easier since then.
凯恩斯在1935年写道：“如今，基于真实的长期预期的投资非常困难，几乎不可行。”现在依然如此。
