短线观点 香港的美元困境

Pity the Hong Kong authorities. No one is quite as trapped between the conflicting forces of China’s slowdown and the expected US interest rate rise as a territory with its future tied to China and its currency pegged to the US dollar.

可怜的香港当局！没有哪个地区像香港这样，受到中国内地经济增长放缓和美国加息预期这两个互相冲突因素的夹击，因为香港的未来是与中国内地挂钩，而其货币却与美元挂钩。

Add in surging demand for Hong Kong dollars triggered by record turnover in the city’s stock market and inevitably questions arise about the suitability, and the sustainability, of the tight 32-year-old currency peg. Last week, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the markets to maintain the peg for the first time since last August. Yesterday, Norman Chan, HKMA chief executive, said the stock market rally produced $4.4bn of inflows last week. By comparison, the HKMA spent about $1.3bn in total last August on its market actions.

再考虑到香港股市创纪录的成交量引发的港元需求飙升，人们不免会问，香港实施了32年之久的港元紧盯美元政策是否适宜、能否持续。上周，香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)入市干预，以维系联系汇率制，这是去年8月以来的首次。周三，香港金管局总裁陈德霖(Norman Chan)表示，上周股市反弹导致44亿美元的资金流入。相比之下，去年8月，香港金管局在其干预市场的行动中总共才耗费约13亿美元。

The case against a dollar peg is growing. It is not hard to argue that easy US monetary policy has produced bubbles in Hong Kong, most notably in property. Overall, the ratio of credit to gross domestic product has roughly doubled since the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing began.

反对港元盯住美元的理由正变得日益强大，有一点很难否认，就是美国宽松货币政策在香港催生了泡沫，最明显的就是在房地产行业。总体而言，自美联储(Fed)启动量化宽松政策以来，香港信贷与本地生产总值(GDP)之比已上升了约一倍。

Trade links between Hong Kong and the US are falling as China rises, too. The US now accounts for 5 per cent of Hong Kong’s business, down from 20 per cent when the peg was introduced, according to BNY Mellon. China, meanwhile, accounts for a full quarter, up from 15 per cent.

此外，随着中国内地的崛起，香港与美国的贸易往来正在减弱。纽银梅隆(BNY Mellon)数据显示，与美国的贸易往来现占香港对外贸易往来的5%，而联系汇率制推出时为20%；另一方面，与中国内地的贸易往来现在占25%，联系汇率制推出时为15%。

More prosaically, traders point out that if the Swiss can shock the market by abruptly removing their currency cap as they did in January, why might not Hong Kong suddenly announce it will peg instead to the renminbi?

交易员更干巴巴地指出，如果瑞士可以出乎市场意料，突然取消瑞士法郎汇率上限（就像今年1月他们所做的那样），为什么香港就不可以突然宣布港元改与人民币挂钩呢？

However, a peg shift seems unlikely for now, not least because there are not enough renminbi outside China to replace the HKMA’s $332bn in reserves.

然而，就目前而言，港元似乎不太可能变更所盯紧的货币，一个重要原因是，中国内地以外没有足够多的人民币来替代香港金管局的3320亿美元外汇储备。

The more general argument is simpler — if it ain’t broke, don’t expect it to be fixed soon. A peg that has weathered the handover of Hong Kong to China, the Asian financial crisis, Sars and the global financial crisis has market credibility that Hong Kong should be loath to lose. The HKMA warned last month about the risk of rising volatility in Hong Kong — and it was right. With China still slowing and US rate expectations at the mercy of each new piece of economic data, more swings can be expected as well as more talk about the dollar peg. But actual change is less likely.

大的道理则更为简单明了：如果东西没坏，就别指望很快会有人修。港元盯住美元的联系汇率制经受住了香港主权移交、亚洲金融危机、非典(Sars)疫情以及此次全球金融危机的考验，这一制度得到市场的信赖，香港想必不愿失去这种可信性。香港金管局上月就香港波动性上升风险发出了警告，这是正确的。由于中国内地经济仍在放缓，而美国的利率预期将取决于接下来要发布的每一个经济数据，因此可以预料到香港市场将出现更多波动，围绕港元盯住美元的争论也会增多。但真正的改变却不太可能发生。