香港楼市与港民的心相呼应的起伏波动

It is a rite of passage to gripe – and occasionally gloat – about Hong Kong property prices. Companies setting up in the territory have to accept they will pay some of the highest prices in the world for office space and possibly dole out equally large housing allowances.

抱怨——或偶尔地得意于——香港的房地产价格，是香港人的必修课。在香港开展业务的公司必须接受这样的现实：它们必须支付世界上数一数二高的办公室租金，可能还要支付同样高的住房补贴。

Likewise for retailers. Burberry, the British luxury brand, pays about $1m a month in rent for its store in Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay shopping district. Ralph Lauren is heading to Hollywood Road, traditionally home to purveyors of antiques, memorabilia and general tat rather than expensive US clothing.

零售商也是如此。英国奢侈品牌博柏利(Burberry)在香港铜锣湾(Causeway Bay)购物区的门店每月租金约为100万美元。Ralph Lauren正打算迁往荷里活道(Hollywood Road)，那里过去是古董商、纪念品商店和普通服饰店聚集的地方，而不是美国奢侈服装品牌应该出现的地方。

But it is not a uniform picture of sky-high rents, as those who took space during the bleak days of Sars, the infectious disease that swept through the territory in 2003, or the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, can testify.

但香港的租金并非一直高得离谱。2003年传染病非典(Sars)席卷香港期间，1997-98年亚洲金融危机期间，房地产价格都曾一落千丈，在那时买入房产的人可以证明这一点。

“Hong Kong doesn’t do stable,” says Craig Shute, a senior managing director at CBRE, the real estate services adviser. “It is rare that prices remain in a 10 per cent band on either side.”

“香港楼市一直不稳定，”房地产服务咨询公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)资深董事总经理施怀德(Craig Shute)说，“价格上下波动幅度均保持在10%以内的情况十分罕见。”

That is testament to the volatility attendant upon a spit of land that effectively has its interest rates set by the US – courtesy of the Hong Kong dollar currency peg – and its demand dictated to a large extent from across the border in mainland China.

此言验证了弹丸之地香港楼市波动之大。由于香港实行港元盯住美元的联系汇率制度，香港的利率实际上由美国设定，而香港的需求很大程度上则受中国内地控制。

Land is in pitifully short supply and government policy on land sales has mostly kept it that way. During times of high inflation, property was seen as a classic hedge.

土地供应严重短缺，而政府的卖地政策很大程度上在维持现状。在高通胀时期，房地产被视为典型的保值工具。

Car parking spaces have gone for $1.3m, enough to buy a street of houses in parts of England or the US. H&M, the Swedish clothing retailer, shuttered its flagship store leaving its Central District location to Zara, its Spanish rival, to take up the keys and pay double the rent.

停车位的售价已经达到130万美元，足以在英美一些地方买下一条街的房子。瑞典时装零售商H&M关闭了位于中环(Central District)的旗舰店，其西班牙竞争对手Zara付双倍租金租下了原址店面。

And there has been a veritable exodus of banks and businesses across the water to Kowloon, once viewed as a hinterland by many expat bankers.

也确实有不少银行和企业逃离香港岛，迁往对岸的九龙(Kowloon)——这个一度被许多外派至香港的银行家视为乡下的地方。

Recently, however, clouds have been appearing on the horizon. In February, the government took steps to cool the market, doubling stamp duty on properties worth more than HK$2m ($258,000) and introducing a lower duty on cheaper homes.

但最近，乌云开始笼罩地平线。今年2月，香港政府采取了一些旨在让楼市降温的措施，对超过2000万港元（合258万美元）的豪宅征收“双倍印花税”，并降低了普通住房的税率。

At the same time, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the territory’s de facto central bank, cut the maximum loan-to-value ratio to 40 per cent for commercial and industrial spaces and introduced a similar ratio for parking spaces, the latest subject of speculative investment.

与此同时，香港金管局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)将商业和工业地产的贷款与估值比率(loan-to-value ratio)上限降至40%，并且对最新的投机目标——停车位——的这一比率做出了类似的限制。金管局相当于香港的央行。

More recently, developers of big projects have been offering rebates and discounts which, in some cases, have served to lop 20 per cent off the price – although this “teaser” strategy has helped them to sell subsequent batches at higher prices. “Hong Kong seems to be at a crossroads,” says Mr Shute. “There are a lot of opinions on what will happen to pricing over the next 12 months or so.”

大型项目的开发商近来推出了一些返现和打折活动，折扣幅度有时能达到20%，不过这种“诱惑性”策略帮助开发商将后续批次房产卖出了更高的价钱。“香港看上去正处于十字路口，”施怀德说，“再过12个月左右价格会发生怎样的变化，人们众说纷纭。”

In one corner are the pessimists – or optimists, depending which side of the desk you are sitting on. Barclays, UBS and Merrill Lynch Bank of America foresee a downturn, with prices falling 30 per cent or more by the end of 2015 on the back of supply increases and stalling income growth.

有一小部分人持“悲观”看法（对看空者而言，这种看法或许反而是“乐观”的）。巴克莱(Barclays)、瑞银(UBS)和美银美林(Merrill Lynch Bank of America)预测楼市将回落：随着房地产供应的增加和收入增长的停滞，房地产价格到2015年底将下滑30%乃至更多。

“The magnitude of the fall is underestimated,” wrote Barclays’ analysts. “The property market is about to enter its first real downturn since 1998.” That was when Hong Kong was caught up in the sell-off triggered by the Asian financial crisis and homes lost two-thirds of their value over a six-year period.

“人们对本轮回落的规模估计不足，”巴克莱的分析师写道，“楼市自1998年以来即将首次真正陷入衰退。”1998年，香港被卷入亚洲金融危机引发的抛售潮，房价在6年间损失了三分之二的价值。

Several factors support their caution. The latest run-up in prices has been strong: the property market has more than doubled since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008.

分析师的上述警告有几点理由。最近这一轮房价上涨势头强劲：自2008年金融危机爆发以来，楼市已上涨一倍以上。

Buyers from the mainland, accounting for as much as a quarter of home sales at the peak in the fourth quarter of 2011, dropped to only 8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, according to Centaline, a property agency.

香港房地产经纪公司中原地产(Centaline)表示，2011年四季度，内地购房客占香港住宅销售额的比例达到四分之一，为历史最高水平。但这一比例在今年一季度降至仅8%。

CY Leung, Hong Kong’s chief executive, is on a mission to make housing more affordable for the territory’s 7m inhabitants, or at least to stem the upward spiral.

香港特首梁振英(CY Leung)正在努力为700万香港居民提供更廉价的住房，或至少是遏制房价继续上涨的势头。

This means increasing supply – a similar policy launched by one of his predecessors Tung Chee-hwa after he came to power in 1997 quickly damped exuberance.

这意味着要增加住房供应。前任特首董建华(Tung Chee-hwa)在1997年上台后曾采取过类似的政策，当时很快便抑制住了房价的疯狂上涨。