野村研究 中国房地产泡沫已正式破裂

China's great real-estate bust has begun, says Nomura. A combination of a huge oversupply of housing and a shortage of developer financing is producing a housing market downturn that could drive China's GDP to less than 6% this year.

野村(Nomura)称，中国房地产调整已经开始。大规模的住房供应过剩，再加上开发商资金短缺，造成了中国住房市场的滑坡，或拖累今年中国国内生产总值(GDP)增速放缓至6%以下。

'To us, it is no longer a question of 'if' but rather 'how severe' the property market correction will be,' three Nomura analysts wrote in a report released Monday. And there isn't much the government can do to head off problems.

野村分析师在周一公布的报告中称，对于野村来说，问题已经不是房地产市场是否会出现调整，而是这个调整会有多严重；而且，政府在应对相关问题上没有太多的回旋余地。

'There is no policy that is universally right,' says Nomura analyst Zhiwei Zhang.

野村分析师张智威表示，没有什么政策是适用于一切问题的。

For some time, Nomura has been among the most bearish of the big investment houses when it comes to China. And it has made some gutsy calls, although they haven't always turned out to be right. In early April, for instance, Nomura forecast that China's current account--the widest measure of trade--would be in the red in the first quarter of 2014. When the numbers came in recently, China still had a current account surplus, though at $7 billion, it was the smallest quarterly surplus in three years.

一段时间以内，野村都是最为看空中国的投资银行之一。野村曾经做过一些大胆预测，不过这些预测并不总是正确的。举例来说，野村曾在4月初时预计，2014年第一季度中国经常项目将出现赤字。这一数据近期得到公布，数据显示中国仍然处于经常项目盈余状态，不过只有70亿美元，为三年来最小的季度盈余规模。

So it remains to be seen whether Nomura this time will be Paul Revere warning of trouble ahead or Chicken Little, warning of trouble that never seems to occur.

所以野村这次能否预测成功还有待时间考验。

Nomura bases a lot of its argument on the observation that that property investment turned negative in four of China's 26 provinces in the first quarter of 2014, and in two of them, Heilongjiang and Jilin, the fall was greater than 25%. To Nomura, that's a warning sign of similar problems to come in other Chinese provinces.

野村的观点很大程度上基于观察。野村观察到，在2014年第一季度，中国26个省份中有四个省份的房地产投资是负值，其中即黑龙江和吉林的降幅超过了25%。对于野村来说，这是一个令人警惕的信号，类似的问题可能出现在中国其他省份。

Falling investment leads to falling levels of construction and sales. And given the property market's huge role in the Chinese economy, declining growth in the property sector means declining growth in GDP.

投资下降导致房地产开工和销售水平滑坡。考虑到房地产市场对中国经济的巨大影响，房地产行业增速放慢就意味着GDP增速放缓。

In one regard, Nomura may be conservative. It estimates that real estate and related industries, such as steel and cement, account for 16% of China's GDP. Other economists put the figure at around 25%.

从一方面来看，野村可能是保守的。该行估计，房地产及钢材和水泥等相关产业占中国GDP的比重为16%。其他经济学家给出的比重则为25%左右。

Shortly after Nomura released its report, UBS came in with its own real-estate assessment, which was also a downer, but less so. The 'government still has the means and willingness to mitigate a property downturn,' UBS said. Those policies include increasing infrastructure investment and relaxing property policies. Even so, UBS downgraded its 2014 forecast to 7.3% from 7.5% and its 2015 forecast to 6.8% from 7% to reflect its worries about the property sector.

野村公布报告后不久，瑞银(UBS)也公布了自己的房地产评估报告。这份报告也看空楼市，但看空程度不及野村。瑞银说，政府仍有意愿和办法来减轻房地产滑坡的影响。这些政策包括扩大基建投资和放宽房地产政策。尽管如此，瑞银仍将2014年GDP增速预期从7.5%下调至7.3%，将2015年GDP增速预期从7%下调至6.8%，以便体现该行对中国房地产行业的担忧。

Certainly, the news in the real-estate sector hasn't been good this year--although a number of analysts still expect China to make the government's GDP target of 7.5% growth.

尽管一些分析师仍预计今年中国将完成政府所设GDP增长7.5%的目标，但毫无疑问的是，今年房地产行业的消息一直不太好。

Private data provider China Real Estate Index System said property sales by volume in the 44 cities they track fell 9% in April from the prior month and 19% compared with a year earlier. Average home prices, meanwhile, rose 0.1% in April from March and 9.1% from a year earlier. The sequential gains were the lowest since mid-2012, when the housing market turned around after the last downturn. This price index started only in 2010.

私营数据提供商中国房地产指数系统(China Real Estate Index System)公布，4月份该系统监测的44个主要城市房产累计成交面积环比下降9%，同比下降19%。该系统还公布，4月份全国100个城市（新建）住宅平均价格环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨9.1%，环比涨幅创2012年年中房价止跌以来的最低水平。中国房地产指数系统仅从2010年才开始发布“百城价格指数”。

The government has lousy policy choices, Nomura argues. Continue with minimal stimulus and GDP growth could fall below 6% this year. On the plus side, developers wouldn't add much to China's long-term housing and debt problems.

野村认为，政府的政策选择极为有限。如果继续执行微刺激措施，那么今年的GDP增速可能会降至6%以下。有利的一面是，开发商不会加剧中国长期存在的住房和债务问题。

Alternatively, ramp up monetary and fiscal policy by, say, cutting by 0.5% the reserves that banks hold in the central bank and by turbo-charging government spending, and the government could achieve 7.4% growth this year, Nomura estimates.

另外一种选择是，加大货币和财政政策的力度，比如，将银行存款准备金率下调0.5个百分点，同时大规模增加政府支出。野村预测，这样做政府可能会将今年的经济增长率提高至7.4%。

But taking that route would only worsen China's housing glut and delay the downturn by a year, the investment firm argues. In 2015, Nomura estimates, GDP would slow to 6.8%. While delaying problems for a year could give leaders more time to put in place reforms that could help China over the long term, Nomura also says China would have a one-in-three chance of GDP growth falling even faster by the end of 2015 and starting a 'hard landing,' which it defines as four consecutive quarters of GDP growth below 5%.

但野村认为，采取这样的方式只会令中国住房供应过剩的状况恶化，把经济下滑的时间推迟一年而已。野村预计，到2015年中国的GDP增速将降至6.8%。虽然把问题推后一年可以让领导人有更多时间落实那些能够在长期内对中国经济有利的改革措施，不过野村也认为，到2015年年底，中国的GDP增幅加速下降并开始出现“硬着陆”的可能性为三分之一；根据野村的定义，经济“硬着陆”指的是GDP增幅连续四个季度低于5%。

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

真是左右为难。

It's possible China could get some unexpected good news that lifts the economy. The downturn in the housing market could turn out to be more gradual than Nomura expects or the global economy could turn around and give a big boost to exports. But Mr. Zhang isn't putting his bet on either. 'There isn't a panacea,' he says.

也可能会出现一些意想不到的好消息提振中国经济。比如住房市场的下滑步伐或许比野村预计的要更为平缓，或者是全球经济好转并极大地促进中国出口。不过张智威并不押注这两种可能性。他说，世上没有灵丹妙药。