比特币泡沫会不会破裂 各路英雄纷上赌桌

Can you bet on the likely eventual bitcoin crash?

你敢对赌比特币泡沫终将破裂吗？

You bet. But it's an expensive trade. And even if you're right, you won't walk away with much, if anything.

当然。但这将是一笔代价高昂的交易。而如果最终泡沫破裂，即使投资者能从中获益，利润也不会太高。

The traditional way you bet against something is to "short it." But in order to do a short sale you have to borrow a share of stock or bond or whatever you are looking to bet against. And borrowing bitcoins is nearly impossible. There is a company based in Hong Kong in testing phase that seems to offer bitcoin shorting, but I couldn't find out much about it.

对赌的传统方式是“做空”。要想进行卖空交易，就必须先借入你要对赌的股票或债券或其他任何东西。而借入比特币几乎是不可能的。据称香港一家公司正在测试提供比特币做空交易，但笔者并未找到太多这方面的信息。

What you can buy is a derivative contract that will rise in value when bitcoins fall in price. There are a number of places that sell options and futures on bitcoins.

投资者可以购买衍生工具合约，等到比特币价格下跌时，合约价值就会上涨。目前，有许多机构推出了比特币期权和期货产品。

One place -- ICBIT, a bitcoin exchange -- is run by a guy in Moscow.

其中一家机构是莫斯科的比特币交易所ICBIT。

MPEx, a stock exchange for companies with shares traded in bitcoins -- there are four of them -- also lists bitcoin options.

比特币股权交易所MPEx也推出了比特币期权。这家交易所为以比特币交易股份的公司提供股权交易服务，目前共有四家这样的公司。

BitInstant, a Brooklyn-based payment processor, is planning on launching a bitcoin futures exchange early next year.

布鲁克林交易处理商BitInstant正计划在明年年初成立一家比特币期权交易所。

All of these places require that you open an account to start trading, and none of them take dollars. So you have to buy some bitcoins elsewhere, which in itself is no easy task, and transfer them to your ICBIT or MPEx account before you can get started.

这些机构均要求开立账户后才能进行交易，而且都不接受美元。所以，你首先必须从其他地方购买比特币，然后将其转入ICBIT或MPEx的账户后才能开始交易。而购买比特币本身就有很大难度。

MPEx charges 30 bitcoins to open an account, which at Wednesday's closing price was $33, 000.

在MPEx开设账户要收费30个比特币，按照周三的收市价格，这相当于33,000美元。

I heard good things about ICBIT, which offered accounts for free but charges a commission when you trade. But to see the prices of the contracts, you had to get your account up and running and deposit a minimum of 0.1 bitcoins. (You can buy bitcoins in fractions.)

好消息是，ICBIT可以免费提供账户，但要收取交易佣金。而要想查看合约价格，投资者必须启动账户，并存入最低0.1个比特币。（比特币可以分割到小数购买。）

I decided to check out Coinbr, a brokerage firm that allows you to trade options on MPEx without opening an account there. You still have to deposit 0.1 bitcoin in a Coinbr account to get started. But MPEx allows anyone to see the prices of its contracts, so you know what you are getting into before you start.

我决定从经纪公司Coinbr展开调查。这家公司允许投资者在MPEx上交易期权，无需在MPEx开立账户。不过，如果要开始交易，仍需在Coinbr的账户中存入至少0.1个比特币。好在MPEx允许任何人查看合约价格，所以在开始操作之前，你能比较清楚地了解情况。

Here we go: If you are betting against bitcoins, what you want to do is buy a put option, which is a derivative contract that allows you to sell something at a set price. If the actual price of the thing falls below the set price, or strike price, you make money.

首先：既然投资者计划做空比特币，自然要买入看跌期权。所谓看跌期权是指允许投资者以预定价格卖出投资品的衍生工具合约。如果该投资品的实际价格下跌至预定价格或执行价格以下，则投资者能够获利。

You could also sell a call option, the right to buy at a set price, but that is riskier and requires collateral. So I stuck to looking at put contracts.

投资者也可以卖出看涨期权（以预定价格购买的权利），但这种操作的风险更高，而且需要抵押。因此，笔者还是坚持看跌期权。

It cost 0.045 of a bitcoin, or $49.50, to buy a put contract to sell 1/10 of a bitcoin at a strike price of $1,100 per bitcoin. The contract expires at the end of the month and will expire worthless if the price of a bitcoin is above $1100 at that point. But the value of the contract will go up before then as long as the value of a bitcoin drops.

以比特币单价1,100美元的执行价格出售十分之一个比特币的看跌合约，每一份合约的成本为0.045个比特币或49.50美元。合约于月底期满，如果期满时比特币的价格超过1,100美元，则各个合约便毫无价值可言。但如果比特币价格下跌，则合约价值将上涨。

Let's supposed bitcoins were to fall to $500 by the end of December, a 55% plunge in less than a month.

假设截止12月底，比特币价格已经下跌到500美元，即在不到一个月时间内暴跌55%。

If that were to happen, the price of my bitcoin put contract would jump.

此时，比特币看跌合约的价格将上涨。

Here's the problem: To book my profit, I ultimately want dollars.

可问题在于：要实现利润，我最终希望拿到的是美元。

With normal currency options you can choose to collect in whatever currency you are using to bet against another currency. So if you are betting the price of a euro will fall against a dollar, you can collect in dollars when the contract settles, thereby offsetting the fact that the euro just dropped in value.

在正常的货币期权交易时，投资者可以将做空其他货币所使用的货币作为结算货币。所以，如果用美元来做空欧元，则在合约结算时可以使用美元，进而抵消欧元价值下跌这一事实。

You can't currently do that with bitcoins. All of the bitcoin options and futures contracts are settled in bitcoins. This is a very bad deal. Because even if I end up with a bitcoin windfall, they will be worth a lot less when I convert them back into dollars.

但目前在比特币期权中却无法如此操作。所有比特币期权和期货合约均以比特币进行结算。这是非常不划算的交易。原因在于，即使投资者最终从比特币期权中获益，最终兑换成美元的价值仍要大打折扣。

Here's the math:

以下是计算过程：

To open an account, it has to be funded with 0.1 bitcoin, which will cost $110 as of Thursday morning.

开立账户必须提供0.1个比特币，按周四上午的价格约合110美元。

The put option costs 0.045 bitcoins, leaving 0.055 bitcoins still in the account.

看跌期权的成本为0.045个比特币，账户中剩余0.055个比特币。

After our imagined 55% plunge, the value of the put contract has soared to 0.12 bitcoins.

按照我们上面的假设，比特币价格暴跌55%之后，看跌合约的价值将上涨到0.12个比特币。加上账户中剩余的金额，目前共有0.175个比特币。

At a bitcoin price of $500, that's a mere $87.50.

而按500美元的单价将比特币兑换成美元，仅有87.50美元。

That means even if you are right, and you call the top of the bitcoin bubble, correctly predicting a whopping 55% plunge in the value of the currency and do all of this, you would lose $22.50.

这意味着，即便投资者的决策正确，预测了比特币泡沫的极限，也准确估算出比特币价格暴跌跌55%的事实，可最终依然要损失22.50美元。

You can get around this by upping your bet against bitcoins. If instead you buy two contracts, for $99, and once again the price plunges 60%, you will end up making a whopping $15. And I haven't factored in fees, which would probably run you about $4 for the whole transaction, including the dollar-to-bitcoin round trip, taking your profit down to $11.

投资者也可以通过加大做空投入来减少损失。如果投资者以99美元买入两笔合约，而比特币价格还是下跌60%，最终投资者可以获利15美元。这其中尚未考虑手续费，整笔交易的手续费约为4美元，包括美元与比特币的兑换费用，此时利润将降至11美元。

On top of all that, this isn't like trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Midday Wednesday, MPEx appeared to shut down, and the prices of the contracts disappeared. I was told this happens a lot. As of early Thursday, the exchange still wasn't listing prices. What's more, after running through my math of the trade with a Coinbr broker in a chat room, with the conclusion that there basically the trade doesn't make sense, he offered to sell me contracts at 0.033 bitcoins, so I could buy three contracts instead of two with my 0.1 bitcoins. That led me to question just how real the prices MPEx was quoting were.

此外，比特币期权交易并不像在纽交所（New York Stock Exchange）进行的交易那样。周三中午，MPEx关闭交易，合约的价格不知所踪。据称这种情况经常发生。截止周四早些时候，该交易所仍未公布价格。而且，我与Coinbr的经纪人在会议室计算了相关交易数据，最终我得出的结论是，这种交易毫无意义，于是他主动提出将合约按0.033个比特币的价格出售给我，这样一来，0.1个比特币便可以购买三份合约，而不是两份。这让我不由得质疑，MPEx所报的价格到底有几分可信。

All of this may explain one reason why the price of bitcoins until recently has been heading straight up. Why bother betting against it?

这或许也解释了为何近期比特币的价格会一路暴涨。既然如此，为什么还要费心去做空它呢？