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中国去年新增房地产开发用地减少25%

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The amount of land used for new property developments in China fell more than 25 per cent last year, reflecting sluggish demand that could exacerbate local governments’ debt burdens.

中国去年新增房地产开发用地数量下降了逾25%,这反映出需求疲软,进而可能加剧地方政府的债务负担。

Citing data from the ministry of land and resources, the official Xinhua news agency reported that 151,000 hectares had been allocated for new real estate, down more than a quarter from 2013.

官方的新华社援引中国国土资源部的数据,报道说,2014年15.1万公顷土地被用于新的房地产开发,同比下降超过四分之一。

China’s property sector is a key contributor to overall investment, which accounts for about half of the country’s gross domestic product and feeds demand for commodities.

中国的房地产业是总投资的关键推动者,投资占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的大约一半,并推动对大宗商品的需求。

中国去年新增房地产开发用地减少25%

While urban home prices in China have fallen for nine months, the full impact of the correction has yet to hit the broader economy and will probably cause a lot more pain when it does. Property investment increased more than 10 per cent last year to Rmb9.5tn ($1.5tn), according to the National Bureau of Statistics, compared with an 8 per cent fall in sales as measured by gross floor area.

虽然中国城市房价已连续9个月下跌,但这一价格回落的全面影响尚未冲击整体经济,一旦这种冲击到来,很可能会导致更多阵痛。中国国家统计局的数据显示,去年房地产投资增加了超过10%,至9.5万亿元人民币(合1.5万亿美元),而总建筑面积的销量却下跌了8%。

Property sales in big cities in the week before the Chinese new year holiday, which officially began on February 18, fell by about 20 per cent from the corresponding week a year earlier.

中国农历新年假期(正式开始于2月18日)前一周,大城市房地产销售比去年同期下降了约20%。

Power production and sales of cars and consumer items such as fridges and washing machines also fell from the same period last year in the run-up to the country’s most important national holiday, according to a report from Haitong Securities, the Chinese brokerage.

中国券商海通证券(Haitong Securities)的一份报告称,中国最重要的全国假期前夕,发电量以及汽车和消费者产品(如冰箱和洗衣机等)的销售也比去年同期有所下滑。

With consumer price inflation expected to come in at less than 1 per cent in February, after an increase of just 0.8 per cent in January, a growing number of analysts are calling for Beijing to cut interest rates again to boost growth. “The time is now ripe for another cut,” Haitong said.

鉴于2月份消费价格指数(CPI)涨幅预计将低于1%(1月份仅上涨0.8%),越来越多的分析师呼吁中国政府再次降息以刺激经济增长。“再次降息的时机已经成熟,”海通证券称。

In November China cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years in the face of the country’s weakest annual growth in nearly a quarter of a century.

面对近25年来最低速的年度经济增长,去年11月中国在两年多来首次下调了基准利率。

Already indebted local governments rely heavily on land sales for revenue. According to the latest estimate from China’s national auditor, local government debts stood at Rmb18tn as of June 2013.

债台高筑的地方政府本已严重依赖土地出让获得财政收入。中国国家审计署最近的数据显示,截至2013年6月,地方政府债务达18万亿元人民币。

Since then only one provincial government has revealed updated debt figures. Hainan said that local debt had increased by more than 20 per cent in the 18 months to last December, reaching Rmb170bn, according to Caixin magazine. This included Rmb145bn in direct debts, with guarantees or contingent liabilities accounting for the rest.

自那以来,只有一个省级政府公布了更新的债务数据。据《财新》(Caixin)杂志报道,海南省政府称,该省地方债务在截至去年12月的18个月内增长逾20%,达到1700亿元人民币。这包括1450亿元人民币的直接债务,其余是债务担保和或有债务。

The rest of China’s 30 provinces are supposed to report updated debt figures to the finance ministry by March 8. The ministry wants to rein in local government borrowing through special purpose financing vehicles and instead raise funds by selling bonds.

中国其它30个省级行政区应该在3月8日之前向财政部报告更新的债务数据。财政部希望遏制地方政府通过特殊目的融资工具的借贷行为,转向通过发债筹集资金。

Despite their financial squeeze, provincial governments have pledged to increase fixed asset investment this year to bolster growth. Hunan, Hubei and Shaanxi provinces recently revealed plans to invest a combined Rmb6bn in infrastructure and other fixed assets in 2015, a 20 per cent increase over last year.

尽管财政困难,但一些省级政府已承诺,今年将增加固定资产投资以支撑增长。湖南、湖北和陕西最近出台计划,拟在2015年在基础设施和其它固定资产上投资共计60亿元人民币,比去年增加20%。