中国房地产开发商将面临生死考验(下)

Mr. Peng says that last year developers "were still somewhat resistant to our rates." He adds: "Now they don't see a light at the end of the tunnel."

蓬钢说，去年的时候，开发商对我们的利率还有些抵触，现在他们已经是穷途末路了。

Trust-company managers, fund executives and analysts say China's four asset-management corporations have emerged as by far the biggest players in the distressed property market, and without their involvement trusts would be short the cash they need to repay investors by a lot. China's trust companies are mainly controlled by banks, other major state-owned firms or local governments, although some foreign financial institutions hold minority stakes. At the end of March they had 5.3 trillion yuan of assets under management, more than double the amount two years ago.

信托公司经理人、基金经理和分析人士说，到目前为止，中国的四家资产管理公司已经成为低迷房地产市场的最重要角色，如果没有它们的参与，信托公司就会缺乏偿还投资者所需要的资金。中国的信托公司主要受银行、其他重要国有企业或地方政府控制，但一些外资金融机构也持有少数股权。截至今年3月底，它们管理的资产有5.3万亿元，是两年前水平的两倍多。

The "bad banks" - China Cinda Asset Management Co., China Huarong Asset Management Corp., China Orient Asset Management Corp. and China Great Wall Asset Management Corp.- were set up at the turn of the century, but where similar institutions overseas have been shut down after disposing of bad loans, China's "bad banks" have evolved into some of the biggest, most diversified financial institutions in the economy. One of the ways the bad banks get involved is by stepping in before a developer defaults, effectively taking over the trust loan, albeit with higher returns and a longer life. They also can step in and buy a developer's other outstanding debts-such as accounts payable - while demanding collateral in return, which similarly frees up the developer to repay its trust loan.

中国的四家“坏账银行”设立于世纪之交，分别是信达资产管理股份有限公司(China Cinda Asset Management Co.)、中国华融资产管理公司(China Huarong Asset Management Corp.)、中国东方资产管理公司(China Orient Asset Management Corp.)和中国长城资产管理公司(China Great Wall Asset Management Corp.)。在其他国家，类似机构在处理完坏账之后就会关闭，但中国的“坏账银行”已经演变成整个经济体中几家规模最大、最多元化的金融机构。坏账银行的参与方式之一是在开发商破产之前进入，事实上接管信托贷款，但要求的回报更高、期限更长。它们同样也可以收购开发商的应付账款等其他债务，同时要求开发商提供抵押，这样做同样也可以让开发商腾出手来偿还信托贷款。

Still, the asset-management firms are unlikely to have the appetite to bail out every trust loan. "Our aim is not to help develop property, but to resolve the short-term liquidity squeeze," said Li Xin, a vice president at China Orient.

不过，资产管理公司不太可能有意愿救助每一笔信托贷款。中国东方资产管理公司副总裁李欣说，我们的目的不是帮助开发商开发房地产，而是解决短期流动性吃紧问题。

Mr. Wei's story highlights the desperation of smaller property developers. The chairman of what domestic real-estate agents said was the biggest developer in the northern Chinese city of Baotou, he struck it rich in 1996 by helping rebuild the city following an earthquake. His flagship development was a five-phase mid- to high-end residential project that was slated for completion next year.

魏刚的故事集中体现了小型开发商的无奈与绝望。国内房地产中介说，魏刚任董事长的公司是包头最大的房地产开发企业。他在1996年通过参与包头震后重建发了一笔财。该企业的旗舰开发项目是一个五期中高端住宅楼盘，按计划要在明年完工。

But he borrowed heavily from loan sharks, and started to run into repayment difficulties this year, according to a friend of Mr. Wei's and people in Baotou's real-estate industry. One beating from the loans sharks left him in the hospital for a month, according to the friend.

但据魏刚的一个朋友和包头房地产业内人士说，魏刚从高利贷者手中借了很多钱，今年开始还款出现困难。据这位朋友说，他还曾因为被放高利贷的人殴打而住院一个月。

On June 6, Mr. Wei's body was found hanging in his room at the Jintuo Hotel in Donghe, according to police. "I was astonished to learn about Wei's death," the friend said. "I could never imagine he would choose to kill himself."

据警方说，6月6日，有人发现魏刚的遗体悬挂在东河区金驼酒店的一间客房内。前述这位朋友说，得知魏刚的死讯我非常震惊，他会选择结束自己的生命，我完全无法想象。

In a recent report, Standard & Poor's said it expects developers with large trust loans to meet their debts by aggressively cutting prices or selling assets, tipping average prices down 10%.

渣打银行(Standard & Poor)前不久发表报告说，预计借了大量信托贷款的开发商将会通过大幅降价或出售资产来偿债，估计房价将会平均下降10%。

But "when the pinch starts to bite, benign price discounting could turn into a price war," it said.

但报告说，当压力开始让某些人承受不住时，良性让价有可能演变成一场价格战。