关注社会:中国促增长计划面临考验

China's economy is limping into the final months of the year, raising the question: why isn't Beijing doing more to support growth?

中国经济正在蹒跚步入今年的最后几个月，人们不禁要问这样一个问题：北京为什么不采取更大力度的措施来支持经济增长？

Industrial output is now growing at the slowest rate since May 2009, decelerating to 8.9% year-to-year in August, down from 9.2% in July. Business surveys show new export orders contracting. The one bright spot in the August data came from real estate, with the area of new residential property under construction rebounding to 4.9% year-to-year growth, after eight months of contraction.

中国工业增加值目前的增速为2009年5月以来的最低水平，8月份同比增幅降至8.9%，低于7月份的9.2%。企业调查显示新增出口订单处于萎缩状态。8月份数据中唯一的亮点来自房地产业。在建新住宅项目面积继收缩了八个月后，8月份同比增长4.9%。

The government so far has contented itself with two interest rate cuts, a modest acceleration of public spending, and approval of more infrastructure projects-most recently a slew of new subway systems for second-tier cities. Relative to the scale of the slowdown though, those efforts appear modest-nowhere near the 4 trillion yuan ($630.4 billion) stimulus plan unveiled at the end of 2008.

中国政府目前为止出台的措施仅限于两次下调利率、小幅加快公共支出速度、批准更多的基础设施项目（最近一次是批准众多二线城市新建地铁系统）。不过，与经济增长放缓的程度相比，这些努力看起来力度不大，远远不及2008年底推出的人民币4万亿元（合6,304亿美元）的刺激计划。

One possible explanation is that a once-in-a-decade leadership transition has frozen China's decision making process. Achieving consensus on any big decisions before the Party Congress-likely in mid-October-will be difficult. But that seems unlikely to be the major factor-if there's one thing China's leaders can always agree on, it's the importance of growth.

一种可能的解释是，10年一次的领导人换届冻结了中国的决策过程。领导人在（可能于10月中旬举行的）18大前夕就任何重大决策达成一致将很困难。不过，这似乎不太可能是政府未推出大规模刺激计划的主要原因──如果有什么事是中国领导人总能达成一致的，那就是经济增长至关重要。

A more likely explanation is that, as far as Beijing's concerned, current growth remains in the acceptable range. At the beginning of the year Premier Wen Jiabao lowered the growth target to 7.5% from 8%. With a modest increase in infrastructure and real-estate investment, that is within reach. There are no signs in the data of mass factory layoffs-a key measure for stability obsessed Beijing.

一种可能性更大的解释是，在北京看来，目前的经济增长速度仍处于可以接受的范围。今年年初，中国国务院总理温家宝将经济增长预期目标从8%降至7.5%。借助于小幅增加基础设施和房地产投资，这一目标是可以实现的。经济数据中未显示出工厂大规模裁员的迹象──裁员是北京极为关注的一个衡量社会稳定的重要指标。

Even if the government wanted to do more, though, room for maneuver is more constrained than it was going into the last crisis. Ballooning credit, fear of bad debts in the banking system, and incipient price pressure all make it difficult to push the stimulus button much harder. Overcapacity in industry means that Beijing's move to loosen lending has been met by a lukewarm response from borrowers.

不过，就算政府想采取更多措施，其调控的空间和上次危机时相比更加有限。激增的信贷、对银行体系不良贷款的担忧、初露端倪的价格压力，所有这些因素都使政府难以推出更大力度的刺激计划。工业产能过剩意味着，尽管北京放宽了信贷，借款人的反应却较冷淡。

But whatever the mixture of deliberate intention and involuntary constraint that's shaping Beijing's limited response to the downturn, it appears policy makers have come round to the reality of China's slower growth.

不过，不管是什么深思熟虑的打算以及偶然的制约因素导致北京对经济增长放缓的应对措施有限，决策者似乎都已经接受了中国经济增长放缓的事实。