关注社会:中国银行业前景转弱

What is $9bn between friends? Not more than a trifle, if you are Bank of Communications and your biggest, closest buddies have already agreed to a private placement capital raising equivalent to a fifth of your diluted share capital. A pity for those shareholders that the Chinese bank is now trading at a discount to the subscription price. Perhaps by thinking about what else the funds could have bought (half of Societe Generale or UniCredit by market capitalisation for example), the bet does not appear so bad.

朋友之间90亿美元算什么钱？实在不算什么——前提是你是交通银行(BoCom)，而你最大、最要好的朋友已同意进行一场私募筹资，规模相当于你的稀释后股本的五分之一。可怜那些股东，这家中资银行目前的股价低于私募认购价。也许想一想这笔钱原本还可能买到什么——比如法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)或意大利裕信银行(UniCredit)的一半市值——就会觉得这笔赌注似乎不算太糟。

Equity raisings are all about timing (just ask UniCredit). This one is provident for BoCom, if not the value of its shareholders' stakes. The new shares were offered at a near 10 per cent discount back in March. Now they are at a 7 per cent premium. And the outlook for China's banks is weakening. BoCom and its four bigger rivals report first-half numbers this month. Liberalising interest rates will eat into previously rock-steady margins while the mistakes of the 2009 crisis-solving lending boom will show up in rising bad loans. The economy is also slowing. All this will hit banks at once, however. Barclays reckons the greater freedom in setting deposit rates will lower net interest margins by an average of just 9 basis points this year, although by a further 40bp in 2013.

发股筹资的关键在于时机（只要问问裕信银行就会明白）。此次募资对交行而言可谓是有先见之明的（对该行股东所持股份的价值而言恐怕就不是这样了）。新股是在今年3月以接近10%的折让发出认购要约的。现在认购价相对于市场价有7%的溢价。而且中国各银行的前景正在转弱。交行和四家规模更大的竞争对手将在本月报告上半年业绩。利率市场化将侵蚀此前坚如磐石的存贷息差，与此同时，2009年为摆脱危机而掀起的放贷狂潮的失误，将体现于不断增加的不良贷款。中国经济也在放缓。不过，这些因素不会立刻打击各银行。巴克莱(Barclays)预计，提高设定存款利率的自由度，只会使净息差今年平均降低9个基点，但在2013年，净息差将进一步降低40个基点。

Long-term, the more liberal environment for rates is positive if, as it should, it forces these state-controlled giants to compete more vigorously and to diversify their revenues. Loan interest accounts for about four-fifths of income at the big banks. But in the shorter-term, investors are jittery and it shows. The big banks are now trading, relative to book value, at an average 1.1 times, far below the 2.7 peak in late 2009. BoCom, at 0.9, is the lowest. It needed the capital for regulatory purposes and the added strength comes at a good time. The sector however is still not cheap relative to the risks ahead. China's expansion, albeit at a slower rate, still offers huge opportunities for its biggest banks. But they must now prove they can take them.

长远而言，利率市场化是积极的举措——前提是它像应该发生的情况那样，迫使这些庞大的国有控股银行展开更加有力的竞争，多元化各自的营收来源。目前，贷款利息为各大银行贡献大约五分之四的利润。但短期而言，投资者会对此感到紧张，这反映在股价上。中国各大银行目前的市净率平均为1.1倍，远低于2009年末2.7倍的峰值。交行的市净率为0.9倍，是最低的。该行当时需要为满足监管要求而募资，现在来看，这一增强实力之举非常及时。不过，相对于下一阶段的风险，中国银行类股票目前仍不够便宜。中国的经济扩张（尽管速度放慢）仍将为各大银行带来巨大机遇。但这些银行现在必须证明自己能够抓住机遇。