关注社会:中国通胀溯源大纲

通货膨胀已成为当下中国的首要话题之一，也几乎人人都能给出一番解释，例如货币超发、“输入性通胀”、“结构性通胀”等等。但6月10日，在青岛举办的国际金融高峰论坛上，北京大学国家发展研究院院长周其仁教授，却对中国通胀成因做了一番别有新意的解读。
Inflation has become one of the focal topics in China recently. Almost everyone has his or her own say on this issue such as excess currency issuance, “imported inflation”, “structural inflation”, etc. But in the Qingdao International Finance Forum held on June 10th, Zhou Qiren, the dean and professor of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, made some innovative interpretations on the causes of the inflation.

周其仁认为，可通过两个角度认识通胀，一个是物价角度，一个是货币角度。物价角度观察通胀，只能看到现象，最终找不到根源和解决办法，相应地，如果以管控物价作为应对通胀的措施，最后不但不会实现效果，还会顾此失彼。他引用已故美国经济学家米尔顿?弗里德曼的话说，通胀是一种货币现象，应该从货币的角度来认识，也应通过货币的途经解决。
Zhou believes that inflation can be interpreted from two perspectives: one is price of goods, and the other currency. From the perspective of price of goods, we can only see it increasing nonstop and can barely work out the root causes and practical solutions. Accordingly, if we take price control measures to counter inflation, we may not only fail to achieve expected results, but also stir other well-ongoing plans. He quoted the late U.S. economist Milton ? Friedman’s words: Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and should be viewed not only from the perspective of the currency itself, but also from the perspective of its passing courses.

也许是因为别国经验过于遥远，周其仁直接用中国经验做例证——20世纪60年代初陈云治理通胀的历史。当时受“大跃进”影响，中国货币投放过多，陈云的解决办法是以“伊拉克蜜枣”、高档糖等商品供应市场，回收过量货币，解决通胀。“这说明，不论是什么制度，货币和物价的联系是很稳定的，这为我们今天如何处理通胀提供了思路，”周其仁说。
Perhaps because other countries’ experience is not well known to our nationals, Zhou referred to China’s experience as an illustration—the counter-inflation history by Chen Yun in the early 1960s. Impacted by the “Great Leap Forward” (A cultural and economic revolution in China), Chinese government generated hugely excess currency into the market. What Chen Yun did with the problem was to supply “Iraq dates” and high-end sugars in the market and recycled the excess currency and tackled the inflation problem. Zhou said, “This has demonstrated that no matter what system we have adopted, either capitalism or socialism, the link between currency and prices of goods is very stable, which provides us with the idea to combat inflation today.”

那么，央行为什么、在什么情况下会多发货币呢？周其仁认为，在1995年《中国人民银行法》通过前，央行超发货币的主要原因，就是央行常常被迫向财政透支。1995年，朱镕基进行整顿，再也不允许通过基础货币供应来解决财政不足问题，中国货币才走向稳定。
So why or under what circumstances will the Chinese Central Bank issue more currency? In Zhou’s view, before the passage of the Law of People’s Bank of China” in 1995, the major reason for the central bank to issue excess currency was that the central bank often ran fiscal deficit. In 1995, Zhu Rongji (former premier of the State Council of China) rectified the mechanism and forbade solving the financial shortage by issuing excess base currency. Since then, Chinese currency embarked on a steady track.

但随着中国经济的发展，老问题解决了，新问题又来。对外开放后，中国利用劳动力和资源成本低的优势，大量出口，中国要利用这个优势，保持出口导向政策，就希望保持人民币汇率稳定。但如何在汇率稳定的同时保持人民币币值的稳定？“这两年的挑战和冲突就是这么来的，”周其仁说。
However, with the development of Chinese economy, while the old problem has been addressed, new problems are coming ahead. After the opening-up, China took advantage of its cheap labor and resources cost to increase its exportation dramatically and kept the export-oriented policy all the way so as to maintain the stability of its currency. But how can we maintain the stability of the exchange rate of our currency while keeping its value stable? “All challenges and conflicts came from this issue.” Zhou said.

要保持汇率稳定，央行就不得不动用基础货币来干预外汇。“在某种程度上，汇率制度变成了中国的发钞制度，”周其仁说。正是由于这个理由，他将演讲的标题定为《货币是一种制度安排》。因为制度性原因，央行不得不以基础货币来维持汇率稳定，于是通胀就无法避免。而要解决这个问题，不是要让人民币大幅升值，而是要改制度。周其仁认为，本质上是要通过财政解决，“把真金白银放进去”，而不要用基础货币。
To maintain the exchange rate stability, the central bank would have to use base money to intervene in the foreign exchange. “To some extent, the exchange rate system has become a note-issuing system in China.” Zhou said. It is for this reason that Zhou made the title of his speech as Money Is a System Arrangement. Out of institutional reasons, the central bank has to utilize base money to keep exchange rate stability and inflation, therefore, is inevitable. In Zhou’s view, inflation can be fundamentally tackled by fiscal means and we should “put real money in the market”, not base money.

周其仁说，“人民币币值稳定和人民币汇率稳定之间，如何做好权衡，希望能在‘十二五’期间解决此问题，解决方式可以渐进，但一定要解决，因为币值对所有人都有影响。”他还略带讽刺地说，解决方法之一是财政发行“稳定汇率债”，“尤其要让那些反对人民币升值的人多买”。
Zhou said, “How to strike a balance between the stability of RMB value and that of its foreign exchange rate should hopefully be settled during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. It can be tackled in a gradual process but should for sure be tackled because it has a great impact on all the people in our country.” He also said in a bit ironical way that one of the solutions is to issue “debts of stable exchange rate” for people, “particularly for those who oppose the appreciation of RMB”.

在周之前的演讲中，国务院发展研究中心金融研究所所长夏斌也提到，汇率已经成为中国经济许多矛盾的一个集中点。而周其仁逻辑严密的推理，则引出一个重要的问题：如果政府的两个目标（促进出口和抑制通胀）的实现手段发生冲突，应该如何抉择，应当将哪些利益、或者哪些群体的利益置于优先考虑地位？这是周其仁的演讲带给听众的最大思考，或许也值得决策者深思。
Before Zhou’s speech, Xia Bin, director of the Finance Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, had mentioned that exchange rate had become the spotlight for many economic conflicts in China. Zhou’s logical reasoning has raised an important issue: If the government’s two goals (export promotion and inflation curb) are contradictory, how can we make a choice? What aspects or whose benefits should be put in priority? That is the biggest problem we need to think about from Zhou’s speech. It may also merit the decision makers’attention.