关注社会:中国将出台新刺激措施?

China is expected to step up efforts to stimulate its flagging economy after an official survey showed the manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in seven months in June.

预计中国将加大力度刺激日益趋弱的经济。此前一项官方调查显示，6月份的制造业扩张速度是七个月来最慢的。

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.2 last month, down from 50.4 in May, the government announced on Sunday, with falling orders and weak exports leading a continuing slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

中国政府昨天（7月1日）宣布，今年6月的官方采购经理指数(PMI)跌至50.2，低于5月的50.4。订单减少和出口疲弱正导致全球第二大经济体继续放缓。

The weak PMI reading suggests growth dropped below the symbolic 8 per cent mark in the second quarter after growing at an annual rate of 8.1 per cent in the first. One Chinese government researcher told an academic forum on Sunday that the economy likely grew at around 7.5 or 7.6 per cent in the first half of the year from a year earlier, suggesting a sharp deceleration in the second quarter.

疲弱的PMI数据似乎表明，中国经济增幅将在第二季度跌破具有象征意义的8%这个水平。此前，中国经济在今年首季度同比增长了8.1%。中国官方一名研究人员上周日在一个学术论坛上表示，中国经济很可能在上半年实现7.5%或7.6%的同比增长，这意味着第二季度将出现大幅减速。

Continued weakness in China's giant manufacturing sector increases the chances that Beijing will introduce fresh measures to boost growth and the new data comes at a time when some in the policy establishment are already calling for action.

中国庞大的制造业持续疲弱，增加了北京方面出台新措施提振增长的几率。而最新数据出炉之际，中国政策制定圈子里的一些人已经在呼吁采取行动。

Chen Dongqi, vice director of the academy of macroeconomic research under the National Development and Reform Commission, on Sunday called for more active government policies such as tax cuts, monetary stimulus and fresh infrastructure investment to prop up flagging growth.

中国国家发改委(NDRC)宏观经济研究院副院长陈东琪上周日呼吁政府推出更多的积极政策，如减税、货币政策刺激措施以及新的基础设施投资，以支撑不断放缓的增长。

Economists also believe further action is likely.

一些经济学家也相信，中国官方很可能会采取进一步行动。

"We expect the government to loosen policy further to ensure economic growth rebounds in the third quarter," said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Japanese investment bank Nomura, predicting a 50 basis point cut in the bank reserve requirement ratio this month.

"我们预期政府将进一步放松政策，以确保经济增长在第三季度出现反弹，"日本投行野村证券(Nomura)的经济学家张智威表示。他预计，本月中国官方将下调银行存款准备金率50个基点。

China's central bank lowered interest rates in June for the first time in more than three years and has reduced the proportion of deposits that commercial banks must hold in reserve three times starting in November.

6月份，中国央行在三年多来首次降息。另一方面，自去年11月以来，中国央行已三次下调存准率。

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Friday that the government will fine-tune economic policies in a "timely and appropriate" way while maintaining a "prudent" monetary policy.

中国央行行长周小川上周五表示，政府将"适时适度"微调经济政策，并继续实施"稳健的"货币政策。

Most economists and analysts are predicting that monetary easing and fresh stimulus will lead to a rebound in the third quarter after six successive quarters of decelerating growth. But some, including many Chinese government-affiliated economists, believe that is unlikely.

多数经济学家和分析师目前预计，在连续六个季度增长减速之后，货币政策放松和新的刺激措施将推动中国经济增长在第三季度实现反弹。但有些人士，包括不少中国政府附属机构中的经济学家，认为这是不太可能的。

"There are not many signs from future orders [in the PMI index] that things are picking up," said Nicholas Lardy, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and expert in the Chinese economy. "Everyone was saying things would bounce back in the second quarter and now most global banks are predicting there will be a rebound in the third quarter but I don't have a lot of confidence that will happen."

"从（PMI数据中的）新订单分类指数看，没有很多迹象显示经济形势出现起色，"彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)经济学家、中国经济专家尼古拉斯•拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)表示。"前一阵大家都在说局面会在第二季度反弹，现在多数全球性银行则在预计第三季度将出现反弹，但我对这种情形的发生几率信心不大。"

Mr Lardy said a major slowdown in China's overheated real estate market has not yet fed through to the wider economy but when that happens the economy is likely to slow further in spite of government stimulus attempts.

拉迪表示，中国过热的房地产市场的显著放缓，尚未影响到整体经济，但当这种影响最终传递到整体经济时，中国经济很可能会进一步放缓——尽管政府采取种种刺激措施。

Beijing has signaled that it intends to increase targeted infrastructure spending on things like public utilities and rail system expansion but the government is wary of launching another massive stimulus like the one in 2008.

北京方面已发出信号表明，它有意增加有针对性的基础设施建设支出，比如对公用事业和铁路系统扩建的投入，但政府不愿像2008年时那样推出又一轮大规模刺激。

The flood of liquidity and the building boom it unleashed then led to countless inefficient investments across the country, particularly in residential real estate and grand infrastructure projects that are now weighing on local government finances and the balance sheets of state banks.

2008年刺激措施所产生的流动性洪流和建设热潮，在全国各地留下无数效率低下的投资，尤其是住宅房地产和宏伟的基建项目，这些项目如今正在拖累地方政府财政和国有控股银行的资产负债表。

The official PMI published Sunday showed the country's manufacturing sector still expanded slightly overall because a reading above 50 points to expansion while a reading below 50 means contraction.

上周日发布的官方PMI显示，中国制造业整体上仍有微幅扩张，因为高于50的PMI表明扩张，低于50则表明收缩。

But sub-indices for new orders and for exports and imports both indicated contraction and harder times to come for a manufacturing sector that has become the world's workshop in the last decade and a half.

但从分类指数来看，新订单指数及进出口指数均指向收缩，显示在过去15年已成为"世界工厂"的中国制造业将迎来更艰难的时期。

The PMI sub-index for new export orders fell into contraction territory with a reading of 47.5 in June from May's 50.4, while the sub-index for overall new orders fell to 49.2 from 49.8 in May.

在6月份的PMI中，新出口订单分类指数为47.5，低于5月份的50.4；而整体的新订单分类指数为49.2，低于5月份的49.8。

The imports sub-index also declined to 46.5 in June from 48.1 in May.

6月份的进口分类指数也降至46.5，低于5月份的48.1。