中国出台最严措施 限制赴香港买保险

Queueing outside insurance sales offices is not a normal Friday night activity in any part of the world. So when Chinese citizens started lining up to see insurance agents in Hong Kong last month, it was clear that something was amiss.

无论是在世界上的哪个地方，在保险公司外面排队都不会是周五晚上的正常活动安排。因此，上个月中国内地居民开始排队与香港的保险经纪人会面的时候，显然是出了什么事了。

Mainland Chinese customers have been buying life insurance in Hong Kong for more than a decade. The pace has quickened over the past 15 months, however, with some people paying millions of dollars in premiums as a means of moving their cash offshore and into a different currency.

中国内地客户从10多年前就开始在香港购买人寿保险了。然而，过去15个月这种现象猛增，一些人支付数百万美元的保费，作为一种将现金转移出境并兑换成不同货币的途径

But China UnionPay, the state-backed bank card monopoly that has acted as the primary conduit for purchases of insurance policies in Hong Kong, has moved to limit use of the channel, delivering what is likely to be a blow to the rapid growth in premiums many insurers have enjoyed over the past year.

但中国政府支持的银行卡垄断机构中国银联(China UnionPay)已着手限制使用银联卡进行这种交易。此前，银联卡是内地居民在香港购买保险的主要支付渠道。这一限制措施可能让许多在过去一年里保费高速增长的保险公司遭受冲击。

The rise of cross-border business in Hong Kong has been a boon to many Asian insurers, coming at a time when growth in other parts of the region is stuttering.

香港跨境保险业务的增长对很多亚洲保险公司而言是福音，因为在同一时间，它们在亚洲其他地区的增长较为乏力。

At UK-based Prudential, for example, Hong Kong sales jumped 58 per cent year-on-year for the first six months of 2016. Sales in Indonesia and Singapore, by contrast, fell. Hong Kong now accounts for more than half of Prudential’s Asian sales, up from one-fifth five years ago.

比如，2016年上半年，英国保诚集团(Prudential)在香港的保险销售额同比跃升58%。相比之下，该公司在印尼和新加坡的保险销售额下降了。香港现在占保诚在亚洲保险销售额的一半以上，5年前则为五分之一。

Hong Kong-based AIA has also benefited from the trend — Hong Kong now accounts for almost 40 per cent of its new business — as have other insurers such as Canada’s Manulife.

总部在香港的友邦保险(AIA)也得益于这股趋势，香港现在占其新业务的近40%。加拿大宏利(Manulife)等其他保险公司也受益匪浅。

UnionPay said last month that cardholders would no longer be able to use its services to buy insurance products with investment or savings components — by far the best-selling policies on the market.

中国银联上月表示，银联卡持卡人今后不能刷银联卡购买具有储蓄和投资性质的保险产品——这是该市场上最畅销的保险品种。

The move follows two similar efforts earlier in the year, but Linda Sun-Mattison, a Bernstein analyst, says the latest change was “the most draconian”.

今年早些时候已有过两次类似的动作，但伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析师琳达.苏-马蒂森(Linda Sun-Mattison)表示，最新的这次“最为严苛”。

“We believe . . . many of the companies will take a hit, at least in the short term,” says Grace Zhou, a Hong Kong-based ICBC International analyst. “The restrictions are for the most popular products.”

“我们认为……至少从短期来说，许多公司将遭受打击，”香港工银国际(ICBC International)分析师Grace Zhou说：“这些限制针对的是最受欢迎的产品。”

Mainland Chinese customers accounted for about 20 per cent of AIA’s total premium and 19.5 per cent of its value of new business, according to ICBC research. It is difficult to estimate what percentage is purchased with a UnionPay card but Ms Zhou says that if 50 per cent of the purchases were made with the cards, the clampdown could cut off 9.8 per cent of the company’s value of new business.

根据工银的研究，中国内地客户约占友邦保险总保费的20%，占其新业务价值的19.5%。很难估计刷银联卡购买的比例，但Grace Zhou表示，如果有50%的保险购买是用银联卡完成的，上述限制措施将使该公司的新业务价值减少9.8%。

Rumours of the clampdown, which circulated in Chinese media a day before the announcement from UnionPay, prompted long lines of customers hoping to buy products before the policies were taken off the shelves, according to analysts covering the industry.

据行业分析师称，在银联发布声明的前一天，中国内地媒体圈子里就流传着银联将打击购买香港保险的消息，这些传言导致客户排起长队希望在政策出台之前完成投保。

The mainland Chinese who succeeded in purchasing a policy will have been some of the last to do so using a China-issued card. The largest insurers in the city on the following day quickly changed the products available to UnionPay customers.

成功在香港投保的中国内地消费者将成为使用银联卡购买此类保险的最后一批人。在声明公布后的第二天，香港大型保险公司迅速修改了针对银联客户的产品。

UnionPay’s latest move will not kill the cross border business entirely. Analysts point out that Chinese customers have other ways to pay for their insurance policies and that regular premium business should be less affected than large, one-off policies. Prudential has focused on regular premium products across its Asian operations.

银联的最新举措不会完全扼杀香港跨境保险业务。分析师指出，中国内地消费者还有其他支付方式，与一次性趸交大额保单相比，期交保费业务受到的影响较小。保诚的亚洲业务一直专注于期交保费产品。

Even if mainlanders buy less in the territory than they used to, the big insurers also have Chinese domestic businesses that could pick up some of the slack.

即便内地消费者在香港购买的保险产品数量不如以前，大型保险公司在中国内地还设有业务，可以弥补一些损失。

And while regulatory changes might affect new business in Hong Kong, the impact on insurers’ profits will be more muted.

监管改革可能会影响香港保险公司的新业务，但对保险公司利润的影响将较为有限。

“With insurers, at least two-thirds of the value is in the back book,” says Gordon Aitken, analyst at RBC Capital Markets in London. “The Hong Kong growth will have an impact but these are 10-year policies.”

“对于保险公司而言，至少三分之二的价值来自于续期保单，”加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)驻伦敦分析师戈登.艾特肯(Gordon Aitken)表示，“香港保险业增长会受一定影响，但很多都是10年期的保单。”

For example, although Hong Kong is Prudential’s biggest Asian market in terms of sales, it is only number three in terms of profits. Analysts say that while the sales line fluctuates (five years ago, Indonesia was its biggest Asian market by sales), profits should be steadier.

例如，按照保险销售额计算，香港是保诚在亚洲的最大市场，但如果按利润算的话只能排在第三。分析人士表示，销售额状况会波动（5年前，印尼是该公司在亚洲销售额最高的市场），但利润应该会比较稳定。

The strength of Hong Kong has not been to everyone’s taste. “We downgraded [Prudential] stock in December because of Asian growth. We thought Hong Kong would be strong and we thought the market wouldn’t like the lack of diversity,” says Mr Aitken.

香港的优势并非人人看好。艾特肯表示：“去年12月，由于亚洲的增长状况，我们下调了（保诚）股票的评级。我们认为，香港将表现强劲，我们认为这个市场不会喜欢缺乏多样性。”

Prudential shares are down 12 per cent year to date, while AIA has managed a 5 per cent rise, broadly in line with the Hang Seng.

今年迄今，保诚股价下跌12%，而友邦股价则实现了5%的涨幅，与恒生(Hang Seng)指数的走势基本一致。

And although Hong Kong is a strong market at the moment, Mr Aitken believes that other countries will recover. “Long-term growth drivers are there in all geographies. The growth in the middle class and the need to close the social security net are still there. Indonesia and Malaysia have stronger growth prospects than Hong Kong in the long term.”

尽管香港目前是一个强劲的市场，但艾特肯认为，其他市场将会回暖。“亚洲所有地区都出现了推动长期增长的因素。中产阶级的壮大以及完善社保网络的必要性仍然存在。长期来看，印尼和马来西亚的增长前景好于香港。”