关注社会:中国上演资本外逃？

China, once a catch basin for the world's money, is now watching cash stream out.

中国曾经吸引世界资金涌入，现在却眼睁睁地看着资金流出。

Wealthy Chinese citizens are buying beachfront condos in Cyprus, paying big U.S. tuition bills for their children and stocking up on luxury goods in Singapore, frequently moving cash secretly through a flourishing network of money-transfer agents. Chinese companies, for their part, are making big-ticket foreign acquisitions, buying up natural resources and letting foreign profits accumulate overseas.

中国富人在塞浦路斯购买海滨公寓，花高昂学费送子女去美国上学，并在新加坡囤积奢侈品。他们通过一个方兴未艾的汇款中介网络频繁而悄悄地转移资金。中国企业也没闲着，它们在海外从事大额收购，大肆采购自然资源，并任由海外利润在海外积累。

China hasn't reported on capital inflows and outflows since last year, but it is possible to gauge more recent flows using trade data, foreign-exchange reserves numbers released Saturday and other economic statistics. A Wall Street Journal analysis of that data suggests that in the 12 months through September, about $225 billion flowed out of China, equivalent to about 3% of the nation's economic output last year. Associated Press

9月21日，一名男子在北京举办的中国房地产投资展上浏览国外开发商的展台。中国从去年以来就没有发布过有关资本出入情况的报告，但利用周六发布的贸易数据、外汇储备数据和其他经济统计资料，仍可评估后来的资金流动情况。根据《华尔街日报》对这些数据的分析，截至9月份的12个月，约2,250亿美元的资金流出中国，相当于去年全国经济产值的3%左右。

'We all noticed what we suspected, which is that there was significant capital flight,' says Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University who witnessed capital flight up close in his previous career trading Latin American distressed debt. 'It's not a good sign when local businessmen begin to think it's better to take money offshore, especially when the world economy is in such bad shape.'

北京大学金融学教授佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)说，我们都看到了所怀疑的情况，即存在大量资本外逃；当国内商人开始觉得把资金转移出国是更好的选择时，这不是一个好的兆头，特别是在世界经济如此糟糕的时候。佩蒂斯在交易拉丁美洲不良债券的从业经历中，曾近距离见证资本外逃。

China officially maintains a closed capital account, meaning it restricts the ability of individuals and businesses to move money across its borders. Chinese individuals aren't allowed to move more than $50,000 per year out of the country. Chinese companies can exchange yuan for foreign currencies only for approved business purposes, such as paying for imports or approved foreign investments.

中国名义上仍维持封闭的资本账户，即限制个人和企业的跨境资金转移。中国公民个人每年转移出境的资金不得超过5万美元，中国企业只有为经过批准的商业目的，如为进口产品或经过批准的境外投资付款，才能将人民币兑换成外币。

In reality, the closed system has become more porous and the rules are routinely ignored. 'The wealthy in China have always had an open capital account,' says Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist and former International Monetary Fund official.

在现实生活中，这个封闭系统的漏洞越来越多，规则常常不被遵守。康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学家、曾任职国际货币基金组织(IMF)的普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说，中国富人的资本账户一直是开放的。

Zheng Nan recently spent 300,000 ($390,000) on a beachfront condo in Cyprus. At 50 years old, he says he is retired from selling telecommunications gear in China for foreign manufacturers. 'My plan is to spend winter there because of the pollution in Beijing,' he says. 'And we will be back for summer.'

郑南（音）最近花30万欧元（39万美元）在塞浦路斯买了一套海滨公寓。现年50岁的郑南说，他原来是在国内为外资厂商销售电信设备，现在已经退休。他说，因为北京的污染，我打算去那里过冬，夏天我们就会回来。

China's $50,000-a-year limit on moving capital out presented a problem for him. He says he got around the restriction by recruiting friends to move chunks of his money under their own names. Real-estate agents in China say that is a common practice that is largely tolerated by authorities.

中国每年5万美元的资金转出限额给他带来了困难。他说，多数资金都是通过让朋友按他们的名义转出，从而绕开这个限制。中国的房地产中介说，这是一个基本上被有关部门默许的常见做法。

For years, China's economy benefited from large flows of cash into the country from exports and from foreign investors. Incoming dollars were exchanged for yuan at China's central bank, putting more yuan into the economy. That made it easier for banks to lend and companies to grow, but it also stoked inflation and contributed to real-estate and stock-market bubbles.

多年来，中国经济一直受益于出口和外商投资带来的大额资金流入。进入国内的美元在央行换成人民币，使更多人民币进入经济体。这有利于银行放贷和公司扩张，但也引起通货膨胀，催生了楼市、股市泡沫。

When money leaves, that system swings into reverse, and there is less money available to fund growth. The outflow of money began to pick up in mid-2011, when concern about slowing economic growth, stalled yuan appreciation and falling stock and real-estate prices made holding cash in China less appealing. Money has left China before, most recently during the financial crisis, when outflows peaked at about $110 billion in the 12 months ended March 2009, the Journal's calculations indicate.

当资金流出中国时，这套体系就会产生相反的作用，能够助力经济增长的资金数量会减少。资金流出的现象在2011年中开始抬头，当时有关中国经济增速放缓的担忧、人民币汇率涨势中止以及股票和房地产价格下跌都令在中国持有现金的吸引力下降。资金此前也曾流出中国，最近一次是在金融危机期间。《华尔街日报》的计算显示，在截至2009年3月的12个月内，资金流出数量达到大约1,100亿美元的高峰。

The outflow helps explain why China's banks have been slow to increase lending this year. Accelerated outflows might force China's central bank to push the yuan to appreciate more strongly against foreign currencies, to encourage Chinese investors to keep their money in the country.

资金流出有助于解释中资银行今年以来贷款增速放缓的原因。资金流出速度加快可能迫使中国央行加大人民币汇率的升值幅度，以鼓励中国投资者将资金留在国内。

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, part of China's central bank, said in a statement that China experienced 'a certain degree of capital outflows' in the first half of this year. It attributed the outflows largely to more investment overseas by Chinese companies and individuals. It said it wasn't concerned that the outflows could destabilize the economy.

中国央行下属的国家外汇管理局在一份声明中说，今年上半年中国经历了一定程度的资本流出。它将资本流出的主要原因归结为中国企业和个人海外投资数量的增加，还说它并不担心资本流出可能破坏中国经济。

In 1998, during the Asian financial crisis, Indonesia saw the equivalent of 23% of its annual economic output leave the country─far higher than the 3% estimated to have exited China over the recent 12-month period. China's economy is protected from such catastrophic outflows by its restrictions on capital movement and by its substantial foreign-currency reserves, currently $3.29 trillion.

1998年亚洲金融危机期间，流出印尼的资金数量大致相当于其年度经济产出的23%，远高于外界估计最近12个月内流出中国的资金数量，后者占中国年度经济产出的比重为3%。由于中国限制资本流动，且拥有庞大的外汇储备（目前为3.29万亿美元），因此中国经济能够避免此类带来灾难性后果的资本流出现象。

The Journal's $225 billion estimate for the year ended in September captures both legal capital outflow and some of the illicit flow. Several economists also have attempted to calculate outflow. Charles Dumas, an economist at Lombard Street Research, estimated net outflows of $300 billion over the same period.

《华尔街日报》估计在截止今年9月的一年内流出中国的资金数量达到2,250亿美元，这同时包括合法和非法的资金流出额。多位经济学家也试图估算流出中国的资金数量。研究机构Lombard Street Research的经济学家杜马(Charles Dumas)估计同期中国资金净流出数量为3,000亿美元。

To gauge the size of the outflow, the Journal compared the change in the country's foreign-exchange reserves with changes in the main components that cause reserves to rise and fall: the trade surplus, foreign direct investment, interest on foreign assets and movements in exchange rates.

为了估计资金流出的规模，《华尔街日报》比较了中国外汇储备的变动规模和导致外汇储备增减的主要项目的变化情况。这些项目包括贸易顺差、外国直接投资、外国资产生息以及汇率的变动。

The two sides of the equation should match. If foreign-exchange reserves increase more than the sum of the components, it suggests extra cash is flowing into China. If reserves increase less, or even fall, it means money is somehow getting out. China's foreign currency reserves saw their first quarterly drop since 1998 in the last quarter of 2011, and fell again in the second quarter of 2012, a sign that the outflows had increased to the point that they offset inflows from trade, foreign direct investment and interest paid on existing reserves.

等式的两边应该一致。如果外汇储备的增量大于上述各项之和的增量，这就表明资金净流入中国；如果外汇储备的增量小于上述各项之和的增量，甚至开始下降，这就意味着资金因某种原因流出中国。2011年四季度中国外汇储备规模自1998年以来出现首次季度下滑，2012年二季度再次出现这种现象。这一迹象表明，资金流出的规模已经大到足以抵消因贸易顺差、外国直接投资及现有储备生息所流入的资金总量。

One factor contributing to the reduced reserves is that Chinese exporters are keeping more of the money they make abroad in dollars, rather than converting it to yuan, economists say.

经济学家说，导致外汇储备减少的一个因素是，中国出口企业把在境外赚到的钱更多地以美元形式持有，而不是兑换成人民币。

Because the $225 billion figure is derived from broad economic statistics, it is impossible to say how much of the outflow is legitimate personal and corporate transactions and how much was moved illegally or was the product of illegal activities.

由于2,250亿美元的资金流出量是根据广泛的经济统计数据计算出来的，所以我们无法知道这其中有多少是个人和企业的合法交易，又有多少是非法流出中国或是非法活动造成的。

A sprawling industry has developed to help Chinese get money out. Services range from the money-transfer agents to private jets that ferry money by customs officials unmolested, according to lawyers and brokers who help Chinese investors find investments abroad. Sometimes bank transfers by companies hide personal money being moved out, these people say. Another method is to piggyback personal cash atop legitimate export and import transactions, at times by using fake invoices, they say. People even carry bags of cash across the border.

在帮助中国人将资金转移到海外这个问题上，已经形成了一个庞大的产业。据律师和帮助中国投资者在海外寻找投资项目的经纪商说，服务项目从汇款中介到由海关人员毫无顾忌地运送现金的私人飞机等不一而足。上述人士说，有时候，企业进行的银行转账可以掩盖向海外转移的个人资金。这些人士说，另外一种方法是将个人现金附带在合法进出口交易中，有时是通过伪造假发票。人们甚至会携带整包整包的现金出境。

Charlie Zhang, an agent in Shenzhen who matches wealthy mainlanders with real-estate investments abroad, says getting money out isn't a problem.

深圳中介Charlie Zhang说，将资金转移到海外一点都不难。他为内地有钱人与海外房地产投资项目之间牵线搭桥。

'We suggest them to other people, some special channel, that can exchange money outside the banks, outside supervision,' Mr. Zhang says. 'It's not hard for people to solve this problem.'

他说，我们把他们介绍给其他人，一些特殊渠道，这些渠道能够在银行之外、不受监管地换汇。解决这个问题并不难。

Cyprus has become a popular investment destination for wealthy Chinese. The island nation in the Eastern Mediterranean gives permanent European Union residency to anyone who spends 300,000 on a property.

塞浦路斯已经成为一个颇受中国有钱人欢迎的投资目的地。这个位于地中海东部的岛国会给予任何在该国花30万欧元买下房产的人欧盟永久居留身份。

'People in China are rich,' says Arthur Cheung, a Hong Kong-based immigration consultant who matches Chinese buyers with foreign property sellers, including from Cyprus. 'They just buy a passport or permanent residency like a Louis Vuitton bag.'

香港移民顾问Arthur Cheung说，中国人有钱。他们买护照或永久居留身份就像买个路易威登包一样。他为中国买家与包括塞浦路斯在内的外国房产销售商之间牵线搭桥。

Paschali Developers in Cyprus has sold more than 90 condos to Chinese buyers in recent months. Company spokesman Paschalis Paschali says buyers want to get residency. He declined to discuss how the company's Chinese customers get their money out.

塞浦路斯房地产开发商Paschali Developers近几个月已经向中国买家销售了90多套公寓。该公司发言人帕斯卡利(Paschalis Paschali)说，买房者希望获得永久居留身份。他拒绝透露该公司的中国客户是如何将资金转移到海外的。

Evis Hadjipetrou, business-development manager for Pafilia Property Developers in Cyprus, says the company has sold 30 condos with Mediterranean views in the past four months to buyers from mainland China. He says he was assured by his Chinese partners who helped line up buyers─among them an agency that is a subsidiary of the Ministry of Commerce, he says─not to worry about the restrictions on moving money. A ministry spokesman declined to comment.

塞浦路斯房地产开发商Pafilia Property Developers业务发展经理(Evis Hadjipetrou)说，该公司过去四个月向中国内地买家销售了30套可以看到地中海美景的公寓。他说，他从他的中国合作伙伴得到了保证，不必担心中国对资金转移的限制。他的合作伙伴帮助找买家，他说其中包括中国商务部下属的一个机构。商务部发言人不予置评。

Hong Kong, although part of China, has a separate financial system and currency─and no restrictions on outbound capital. Consequently, there are restrictions on mainland Chinese moving money to Hong Kong.

香港虽然是中国的一部分，但拥有独立的金融系统和货币，而且对资金外流没有限制。因此，中国内地人向香港转移资金是受限制的。

One legal way that some elite Chinese have gotten money offshore is by taking their companies public in Hong Kong, then selling shares. Since 2005, 350 mainland companies have raised more than US$150 billion in Hong Kong, according to data provider Dealogic. Company owners can accomplish the same thing by listing in New York or Singapore.

一些中国精英人士将资金转移到海外的一种合法途径是，将自己的公司在香港上市，然后出售股份。据数据提供商Dealogic的数据，自2005年以来，350家内地公司在香港共筹集了逾1,500亿美元。公司所有者也可以通过将公司在纽约或新加坡上市而达到同样的目的。

Many other Chinese have resorted to money-transfer agents operating outside the official banking system. The agents provide loans and transfers that Chinese use to evade the limit on overseas transfers. Working as a money-transfer agent is illegal in China, but it is perfectly legal and lightly regulated in Hong Kong.

其他很多中国人则求助于在官方银行系统之外运作的汇款中介。中介提供中国人可以用以逃避海外转账限制的贷款和转账。在中国内地做汇款中介是违法的，但在香港则是完全合法的，而且监管也不是很严。

In Chongqing, home to purged Communist Party official Bo Xilai, authorities closed a money-transfer organization they said moved $10 billion for clients. They said it was run by Chen Huizhuan, a 36-year-old former electronics saleswoman, with the help of her extended family. In July, she was sentenced to six years in jail. A lawyer for Ms. Chen, contacted through intermediaries, declined to comment.

在被罢免的中共官员薄熙来曾经主政的重庆，有关部门关闭了一家地下钱庄，并称这家机构为客户转移了折合100亿美元的资金。有关部门说，这家钱庄由36岁的陈惠专在其一大家人的协助下经营，她曾从事过电子产品销售工作。今年七月，陈惠专被判处六年有期徒刑。记者曾通过中间人联系过陈惠专的律师，但他拒绝发表评论。

People with direct knowledge of the case say there was a large transfer by Qi Gang, a construction project manager from eastern Zhejiang province who they say was a client of Ms. Chen. In January 2011, Mr. Qi lost the equivalent of $1.3 million in two days of gambling with borrowed money at a Macau casino, these people allege. Macau, like Hong Kong, is part of China but has its own financial system, and mainlanders face the same restrictions on moving money there. Mr. Qi had the money to pay off his debt, these people say. The problem was getting it out of China.

直接了解这件案子的人说，浙江一个工程项目的负责人祁刚（音）曾向海外转移过一大笔钱，他们说祁刚是陈惠专的一个客户。这些人说，2011年1月，祁刚用借来的钱在澳门赌场内赌博，两天时间内输掉了相当于130万美元的赌资，澳门跟香港一样，都是中国的一部分，但它有自己的金融体系，中国内地人将资金转入澳门时所受到的限制与他们向海外转移资金时受到的限制一样。上述人士说，祁刚有还赌债的钱。问题是如何将钱转移出中国。

Mr. Qi's company, which wasn't identified by authorities, transferred the cash into an account set up by Ms. Chen in Chongqing, claiming it was paying for building materials, say the people knowledgeable about the case. Then Ms. Chen had the equivalent amount in Hong Kong dollars deposited into a separate account belonging to the entity that had lent Mr. Qi the gambling money, they say.

祁刚的公司未获得政府的资质认证。据知情人士说，这家公司将祁刚准备还赌债的钱转入陈惠专在重庆开立的一个账户，称这笔钱是用来支付建筑材料款的。他们说，随后陈惠专将与这笔钱等值的一笔港元存入了由那家借赌资给祁刚的实体所有的一个账户。

'No funds actually cross the border, so this method is difficult to detect and impossible to measure,' says Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank, who has studied Chinese money flows but has no direct knowledge of the case. 渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)

中国研究部负责人王志浩(Stephen Green)说，在这桩交易中实际上没有资金被汇出境外，所以这种转移资金的方法难以被侦查到，人们也不可能算出以这种方式转移的资金究竟有多少。王志浩一直在研究中国的资金外流问题，但他并不掌握此案的第一手材料。

Mr. Qi couldn't be reached for comment. It is unclear whether he has been charged with any wrongdoing.

记者无法获得祁刚对此事的评论。不清楚他是否已经被起诉。

A recent decision by Hong Kong's highest court highlighted the territory's role as a facilitator for mainland money to escape. Yan Suiling, a wealthy Amway saleswoman, insurance agent and restaurateur in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, moved $2 million via a money-transfer agent from the mainland to Hong Kong between 2007 and 2009, according to case records and lawyers involved with the case. She used the money to invest in Hong Kong's stock market.

香港最高法院最近的一项裁决彰显了香港在方便内地资金出逃方面所扮演的角色。身家不菲的严穗陵在广州身兼安利公司(Amway)销售员、保险代理人和餐馆老板三重身份，据案卷记载和涉案律师说，她在2007至2009年期间通过地下钱庄将200万美元从中国内地转移至香港。她将这笔钱投资于香港的股票市场。

Ms. Yan got into trouble when a check deposited in her Hong Kong account in one of the transactions included proceeds that Hong Kong authorities traced to a $1 million mortgage fraud by someone else. Despite having no involvement in the mortgage fraud, she was convicted in a Hong Kong court of money laundering and served 18 months in prison.

严穗陵的这些资金转移交易中有一笔支票存入了她在香港的银行账户，而这张支票上的一部分钱被香港政府认定属于其他某个人所实施一项100万美元按揭贷款诈骗案的非法所得，严穗陵也因此惹上了麻烦。尽管她没有参与这桩欺诈案，但香港一家法院仍然认定她的洗钱罪名成立，并判处其18个月监禁。

On appeal, her lawyers argued that she thought the money was part of a money transfer and couldn't be expected to know it had come from the mortgage fraud. While such transfers are against the rules on the mainland, they are permitted in free-market-oriented Hong Kong. Her lawyers declined to comment, and Ms. Yan didn't respond to a request for comment.

她的律师在就这一判决提起上诉时称，她当时只认为这笔钱是地下钱庄帮她从内地所转来资金的一部分，不可能知道这钱来自按揭贷款欺诈所得。虽然通过地下钱庄转移资金出境违反了中国内地的法规，但在以自由市场为导向的香港此举却是被允许的。她的律师拒绝发表评论，严穗陵没有回复置评请求。

Hong Kong's Court of Final Appeal agreed and cleared her record. The court said it was 'not surprising' that she would 'find it necessary' to use a money-transfer agent since she had to evade the mainland's currency regulations in order to invest in Hong Kong's stock market.

香港终审法院同意了律师提出的这一观点，并免除了严穗陵的罪责。这家法院说，它对严穗陵发现有必要借助地下钱庄这一事实“并不感到惊讶”，因为为了投资香港股市她不得不绕开中国内地的货币监管。