关注社会:玉米价格与肉类企业股票

You don't only eat corn when you eat corn. It is an important input for milk, meat, packaged foods, soda, even gasoline. And a drought has severely compromised this year's US crop, threatening to send prices to new highs. Corn prices have surged from $6 a bushel in June to more than $8 now.

你不仅仅是在吃玉米时消耗玉米。玉米是生产牛奶、肉类、包装食品、苏打、甚至汽油的重要原料。一场干旱已严重损害美国今年的收成，威胁把价格推向新高。玉米价格现在已从6月份的每蒲式耳(bushel)6美元飙升到逾8美元。

That is a big deal for a many companies. Most hedge exposure. Ethanol companies (which absorb 40 per cent of the total crop) can buy corn futures and sell them on ethanol or gasoline or contract for corn and ethanol in advance, locking in a certain amount of profit. They can also idle plants, as Valerohas. Meat producers (another third or more of the harvest) can lock in feed prices too. Chicken producer Sanderson Farmstypically buys feed only a few months in advance, in case prices go against it But as there is no futures market in chicken, it is harder to guarantee a margin.

这对很多公司来说是件大事。多数企业都进行了对冲操作。乙醇公司（吸收总收成的40%）可以购买玉米期货，销售乙醇或汽油期货，或事先购买玉米和乙醇合同，以此锁定一部分利润。他们也可以闲置厂房，像瓦莱罗公司(Valero)所做的那样。肉类生产商（另外逾三分之一的玉米消耗）也可以锁定该饲料价格。鸡肉生产商桑德森农场(Sanderson Farms)的一贯做法是，仅提前数月购买饲料，以防价格转向。但因为不存在鸡肉期货市场，所以更难保证利润率。

The stakes are high. Sanderson reckons every 10 cent jump in the price of corn raises the cost of producing a pound of chicken by about a third of a penny. A $2 increase, like the one that just took place, adds about 7 cents to the cost per pound. Doesn't sound like much? Well, Sanderson's gross profit per pound in the second quarter, which ended in April, was about 8 cents (a 10 per cent margin). If corn prices stay high after the hedges roll off, and consumers resist increases, it will hurt. Sanderson's shares Fell by a fourth in the past three months. Fellow protein makers Smithfield, Tysonand JBS are beaten up also.

赌注很高。桑德森估计玉米价格每跃升10美分，生产一磅鸡肉的成本就要增加三分之一美分。而如果上涨2美元，正如刚刚发生的那样，将为每磅鸡肉成本增加约7美分。听起来还不算多？嗯，桑德森在截至4月的第二季度每磅鸡肉毛利润为大约8美分（利润率为10%）。如果玉米价格在对冲产品到期后仍维持高位，而消费者又拒绝涨价，公司利益就会受损。桑德森的股价在过去三个月下跌了四分之一。其他肉类生产商，如史密斯菲尔德(Smithfield)、泰森(Tyson)和洁百士(JBS)公司也都遭到打击。

Droughts end. People like meat. Are protein stocks starting to look tasty? Whatever the hedge, these companies will eventually have to pass on higher corn prices by reducing overall supply and charging more as the drought is so bad. The question is whether short-term price spikes will affect consumers' appetite for meat long after the rains.

旱灾总会结束。人们都爱吃肉。肉类企业的股票开始变得"可口"了吗？不管怎么对冲风险，这些公司最终都将通过削减整体供应量和提价来转嫁更高的玉米价格，因为这场旱灾太糟糕了。问题是，短期价格的飙升，是否会影响到消费者在降雨恢复后很长一段时期内对肉类的食欲。