中国楼市恐再难重现昔日繁荣景象

China property investors are betting that help is on the way. They shouldn't get too giddy.

中国房地产的投资者押注政府将出台支持措施，但他们不应过于乐观。

As prices and transaction volumes fall, several Chinese cities are considering looser limits on home purchases and mortgages, according to state-run media. The moves could shore up weak housing markets by bringing back buyers--especially speculators--who were boxed out by authorities when markets were too hot.

据中国国有媒体称，随着房价和成交量下降，数个中国城市正考虑放松限购和房贷限制。此举可能会吸引购房者（尤其是投机人士）重新入市，从而提振疲弱的住房市场。中国政府在房地产市场过热时出台的限购政策将投机者挡在了市场之外。

Talk of a loosening has enlivened shares of China's big developers, which got an added boost Wednesday from an announcement that Beijing is rolling out a limited stimulus package of railway spending and the like. The CSI Real Estate index is up 16% in the past month, according to CapitalVue, a data provider.

房地产政策放松的传闻使中国大型开发商的股票活跃起来，另外，中国政府周三宣布将加快铁路建设，这相当于一项小规模刺激方案，该消息对房地产类股带来进一步提振。数据供应商CapitalVue表示，过去一个月中证地产指数累计上涨16%。

But while the restrictions may have damped property sales, removing them won't necessarily restore the good old days. Curbs on mortgage loan-to-value ratios and limits on the purchase of second and third homes were more stringent in China's biggest cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai. Those are also China's healthiest housing markets.

尽管上述针对房地产市场的限制措施可能抑制了房产销售，但取消这些措施并不一定会使房地产市场重现昔日的繁荣。在北京、广州和上海等中国一线城市，针对房贷成数和第二、三套住房的限购更加严格。不过这些城市也是中国最健康的房地产市场。

The bigger problems are in China's once-fashionable second- and third-tier cities, where developers flocked in recent years. Inventories are swelling and prices are falling. Unsold residential space nationally has grown to 342 million square meters, equal to 42% of all the residential space built in 2013 and the highest level in years. In tier-two cities--generally smaller than China's very biggest--Standard Chartered estimates supply has quickly swelled to 25 months of sales, from a long-term average of 16 months.

更大的问题出现在一度火热的二三线城市。近年来，开发商不断涌向这些城市，现在这些城市存量房激增，房价下跌，全国未售出住宅面积已增至3.42亿平方米，相当于2013年新建住房总面积的42%，也创下近几年的最高纪录。据渣打银行(Standard Chartered)估计，在二线城市中，房屋存量足够销售25个月，而长期平均水平是16个月。

New construction starts so far in 2014 are down more than in any year since 1996. Property investors are right to worry that all the excess supply will take substantial time to be absorbed. Higher borrowing costs and fears of a credit freeze hover over the sector.

2014年至今的新屋开工数下降幅度超出1996年以来任何一个年份。房地产投资者有理由担心，太多的房屋供给需要相当长的时间才能消化，而贷款成本上升和对信贷紧缩的担忧也依然笼罩着房地产市场。

Yet China's big developers seem to think they are immune. On average, the top 20 tracked by Citigroup target sales growth of 25% this year, while the overall market is expected to grow just 8%.

不过大型开发商似乎有信心能够避开冲击。花旗集团(Citigroup)追踪的20家大开发商平均预计今年销售增长25%，而整体市场预计只会增长8%。

Take midsize developer Agile Property: It targets 19% sales growth, despite exposure to second- and third-tier cities and aggressive price cuts at several of its projects. Its net leverage of 72% exceeds the industry average of 59%. Perhaps reflecting doubt about the home market, Agile is among a slew of Chinese developers that have launched projects abroad, in its case a development in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

以中型开发商雅居乐地产(Agile Property)为例。这家公司虽然在二三线城市面临风险，且大幅下调了几个项目的售价，但仍预计今年销售增长19%。该公司 杠杆率为72%，高于59%的行业平均线。雅居乐地产在马来西亚吉隆坡推出了自己的项目，成为在海外推出项目的中国开发商之一，这一趋势或许反映了中国开发商对国内市场的怀疑。

China's stimulus and property-loosening measures could end up like a dose of smelling salts after a blow to the head--causing a quick stir, followed by a long malaise.

中国的刺激措施和房地产宽松举措最终可能像头部遭受重击后给的一剂嗅盐――能让人迅速清醒，但接下来是漫长的病痛。